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Bengals vs. Bills Player Prop Picks, Predictions Divisional Round: Bengals’ O-Line Injuries Change Game Plan

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 22, 2023 7:01 AM EST • 2 min 61 sec read.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens drops back to pass while Greg Rousseau of the Buffalo Bills chases him at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct. 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland.
Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens drops back to pass while Greg Rousseau of the Buffalo Bills chases him at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct. 02, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images via AFP.

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday with the potential for cold weather and a banged up Cincy offensive line having an impact on the matchup. Here are our Bengals vs. Bills player prop picks based on our best NFL odds.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen may get all the headlines, but his team advanced to the Divisional Round in spite of him, not because of him. Allen turned the ball over three times against the Miami Dolphins, which is why the Bills won by just three points despite nearly doubling the Dolphins’ yards that day.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow was decent against the Baltimore Ravens, but his numbers were very pedestrian by his standards. Now, with three of the Bengals’ starting offensive linemen expected to miss Sunday’s game, the Bengals need to find creative ways to get the ball out of Burrow’s hands quickly to have a chance to win this game.

Here are our best Bengals vs. Bills Divisional Round player prop picks (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bengals vs. Bills picks, same-game parlay, and Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen prop picks.

Divisional Round Bengals vs. Bills Player Prop Picks

  • Joe Mixon Over 46.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Greg Rousseau to record a sack (+134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Josh Allen +9.5 passing yards vs. Joe Burrow (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bengals vs. Bills Odds

Check out our Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds.

Bills vs. Bengals Player Props

Joe Mixon Over 46.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The best way to protect your quarterback is to run the ball. This is something the Bengals have to keep in mind Sunday against a team allowing 4.2 yards per carry this season. Cincy running back Joe Mixon was hit or miss throughout the year, rushing for over 50 yards just eight times. 

Fellow RB Samaje Perine did carry the ball 95 times, a big factor in Mixon’s reduced production. However, in their Wild Card win over the Ravens, Mixon carried the ball 11 times, while Perine did so only twice. Expect Mixon to be the focal point again, as the Bengals stick with the run even if they fall behind early. 

A quick note about which book to bet at: this number is as high as 50.5 at PointsBet, and it's listed at 48.5 at both FanDuel and Caesars.

Editor's note: The best odds available for Mixon Over 45.5 rushing yards as of Sunday afternoon are -110 via FanDuel.

Greg Rousseau to record a sack (+134) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For all that's been made about the Bengals’ banged up O-line, one thing benefitting them is they're going against a unit that doesn't have much of a pass rush. The Bills had just 40 sacks this season, eight belonging injured edge rusher Von Miller. Without his numbers, the Bills would be an NFL bottom five in sacks.

Yet, the fact remains Burrow has been sacked in every single game this season, including four times last week against the Ravens. The Bills picked up four sacks against the Miami Dolphins, primarily because they were more aggressive against QB Skylar Thompson.

Buffalo linebacker Matt Milano may be an enticing pick at +250, especially after a two-sack performance last week. However, he topped his season total of 1.5 sacks in that game, and it’s unlikely the Bills blitz as much in this one. That’s why we’re going with defensive end Greg Rousseau. Rousseau has eight sacks this year, and should have no problem getting into the backfield in this contest.

Josh Allen +9.5 passing yards vs. Joe Burrow (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Burrow has certainly been the better passer in yards this season, but the Bills will rely more on their quarterback than the Bengals in this one. With the offensive line the way it is, look for Cincinnati to run the ball more early, while Buffalo comes out throwing from the start.

The Bills haven't established a rushing attack all year, with RBs Devin Singletary and James Cook combining for just one 100-yard rushing game. The Bengals are in the NFL's bottom 10 in passing yards allowed, while the Bills rank 13th. Allen may throw for more yards outright, whether the Bills win or lose.

Bengals vs. Bills player prop picks made 1/20/2023 at 9:35 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.