Bears vs. Patriots Picks, Predictions Week 7: Is Chicago a Smart Contrarian Play?

Top NFL picks for the Week 7 Monday Night Football matchup between the Bears and Patriots.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 24, 2022 6:52 AM EDT • 4 minute read

The 3-3 New England Patriots host the 2-4 Chicago Bears in the final game of the NFL's Week 7 on Monday Night Football. Read on for our top Bears-Patriots picks and predictions.

The Patriots are expected to welcome sophomore quarterback Mac Jones back to the lineup for the first time since Week 3. Jones has sat out due to an ankle injury while fourth-round rookie QB Bailey Zappe has led the team back to .500 with consecutive wins over the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns as a starter.

The Bears have slid to 2-4 with three straight losses, to the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, and Washington Commanders. Chicago scored just one touchdown in that most recent defeat. It enters Week 7 ranked 30th in the NFL with 15.5 points per game on offense.

Here are our Bears-Patriots NFL picks for Week 7 (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bears vs. Patriots Game Info

Date: Monday, Oct. 24, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Weather: 63 degrees, 67% chance of precipitation, 6-mph N wind

Bears vs. Patriots Odds

Bears vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

The spread has moved sharply toward New England from the consensus opening line of -6. New England is favored by a consensus of 9 points as of Monday morning with 82% of tickets and 78% of the handle backing the hosts.

There's some reverse line movement on the Over/Under. Despite 63% of tickets and 69% of the cash backing the Under, the line has moved from 38.5 at opening to 40 on gameday.

Bears vs. Patriots Picks

Sbr Betting Ticket Three Picks

Bears vs. Patriots ATS Pick

Bears +8.5 (-110) ★★★

We cannot possibly bring ourselves to join the 90% of the public that has sided with the Patriots, so we had to search long and hard to find reasons to back the Bears. 

The most obvious reason is that Mac Jones could be rusty and hampered by a high ankle sprain and not seeing live game action since Sept. 25. Jones may also feel the pressure of Bailey Zappe breathing down his neck for playing time. Zappe is one of three quarterbacks this season with two-plus starts and zero losses. In addition, he was the first rookie with a 100+ passer rating in each of his first two starts since Sonny Jurgenson in 1957. Yes, Jones led the Patriots to the playoffs last year, but we have seen Belichick pull an established starting quarterback for more of an unknown when he moved on from Drew Bledsoe in favor of Tom Brady.

Bears quarterback Justin Fields has been pressured on a whopping 46% of dropbacks, but Chicago’s offensive line ranks second in pass block win rate. Thus, we expect some positive regression, and for Fields to be more comfortable in the pocket than he has been for most of the year.

Lastly, weather could be the great neutralizer, and with rain in the forecast for much of the game, that could mitigate most advantages New England holds in this matchup.

Bears vs. Patriots O/U Pick

Under 40.5 (-110) ★★

The Patriots have held opponents to 15 combined points over the last two weeks. Those dominant defensive performances have led to New England ranking first in defensive efficiency (success per play on a 0 to 100 scale), first in completion percentage allowed (50%), and first in takeaways (six) during their mini-winning streak. Perhaps even more impressive, New England has not allowed a touchdown to a running back all season.

Unders in primetime games are 13-6 this season and are cashing at over a 58% clip over the last four seasons. Despite New England coming off its most points in a second half (28) since 2019, we expect a defensive struggle in what could be sloppy conditions.

Bears vs. Patriots Prop Pick

Montgomery Under 54.5 rushing yards (-135) ★★★

Bears running back David Montgomery has handled 16-plus touches in four of the previous five games, so workload has not been an issue. However, he is facing a Patriots defense that has been the toughest against opposing running backs, owning a -5.4 adjusted fantasy points added to the position.

The Patriots became the first team to hold Browns running back Nick Chubb under 100 scrimmage yards this season and will once again look to make Chicago one-dimensional and take away its best option.

Where to Bet on Bears vs. Patriots Picks

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Bears-Patriots picks made 10/23/2022 at 7:27 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”