Washington State vs. UCLA College Basketball Picks: Market Trusting in Bruins

Washington State sits among a number of middling teams in the Pac-12 that seek the chance to add a big win or two to its resume to gain any sort of consideration with the committee on Selection Sunday. Check out our Washington State and UCLA picks.

It’s one of the best days of the college basketball of the season as all of the major conferences are now well into their end-of-season tournament. In the Pac-12 one of several teams on the outside looking in has an opportunity for a big-time resume builder as Washington State takes on UCLA.

With just three teams projected into the field of 68 by most bracketologists, the Pac-12 certainly has lacked depth this season. The Washington State Cougars are looking to keep their season alive, proving they can hang with some of the better teams in the nation despite a lackluster resume.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s college basketball matchup between Washington State and UCLA (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Washington State vs. UCLA Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Mar. 10, 9:00 p.m. ETTV: Pac-12 NetworkLocation: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Washington State vs. UCLA Odds Analysis

Both the public and the sharps are riding heavily with UCLA as the point spread has increased toward the Bruins from the opening line of -7.5 to -9 at DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. Seventy-six percent of the money and 83% of the tickets are on the Bruins.

The total on this game opened at 132 and has risen slightly to 132.5 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Over 70% of the money and handle have gone toward the Over, which hasn’t been enough to significantly alter the line at many of the major sportsbooks.

Washington State vs. UCLA Picks

Washington State +9 (-110) ?????Over 132.5 (-105) ????

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Washington State vs. UCLA Predictions

Washington State +9 (-110)

Washington State isn’t as good as UCLA, and barring a major run through the Pac-12 Tournament, Wazzu isn’t an NCAA Tournament team. The Bruins are one of the top 10 teams in the country, according to KenPom, but like all college basketball teams, they’ve been known to occasionally fall flat in unexpected circumstances.

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That has especially been the case when the Bruins are away from home on the season. Though UCLA went 9-5-1 against the spread at home this season, they were 6-6 ATS on the road and a notable 0-2 ATS in neutral site games. As KenPom’s No. 8 team in the nation, the Bruins are too talented not to win this game over Washington State; however, the Cougars are more relevant in the metrics than they appear to be on the Bubble Watch. KenPom’s No. 53 team in the country has a top 40 adjusted defensive efficiency that could catch UCLA off-guard in this game.

The Bruins likely remember beating up on the Cougars 76-56 in their only meeting of the regular season. Outside the confines of their home arena, though, Wazzu should put more of a scare into a UCLA team that needs to avoid counting its chickens on Thursday.

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Over 132.5 (-105)

Part of my belief in Washington State’s ability to cover the nine points at DraftKings relates to my belief in the Cougars’ defense somewhat limiting the potent UCLA offense. But let’s be real; there’s only so much the Cougars are going to be able to do over the course of 40 minutes in containing the Bruins. UCLA possesses the No. 15 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, so the Bruins are eventually going to break through for a solid output.

Washington State also has a top 100 offense (No. 86) that the spread seems to be overlooking. UCLA is balanced, so the expectation by the books appears to be that the Bruins will score into the low-70s while forcing the Cougars to struggle offensively similar to the way they did in the previous meeting on Feb. 17.

I have slightly more belief in Washington State’s ability to find the right shot with enough frequency to score into the mid-60s. The Cougars defense is good enough to make things ugly for opponents every once in a while. You should see enough of that from Wazzu again on Thursday, as I’m projecting a final score in the neighborhood of 71-65. That implies a cushion of a few points on not only the spread but the total as well, as this one sneaks Over the 132.5.

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Washington State-UCLA picks made 3/10/2022 at 3:19 p.m. ET