Texas vs. Duke Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 4

My Texas vs. Duke prediction sets the stage for Tuesday’s marquee matchup between the Longhorns and the No. 6 Blue Devils in the Dick Vitale Invitational at 8:45 p.m. ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. (ESPN).

Duke is a 9.5-point favorite ahead of Cameron Boozer’s collegiate debut, who could be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NBA draft. It also marks the start of the Sean Miller era at Texas.

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🏀 Texas vs. Duke preview & score prediction

My Texas vs. Duke prediction expects the Blue Devils to take care of business in the opener, but how they get there is the crucial part of this handicap. The team that can dictate its style of play could have the upper hand.

Who will dictate the pace?

This is the most critical question to answer from a betting perspective. The Blue Devils have typically played at a slower pace in the past three seasons under Jon Scheyer. They haven’t ranked higher than 269th in adjusted tempo.

Given Duke’s best player is a 6-foot-9 freshman forward, I think it’s fair to assume this team would prefer to keep things slow. That’s probably why KenPom projects the Blue Devils to rank 275th in adjusted tempo this season.

That’s a stark contrast from Sean Miller’s style. Xavier had an average ranking of 49th in adjusted tempo during the past three seasons under Miller. The Musketeers ranked as high as 31st in 2024. KenPom projects Texas to rank 83rd to start this season.

The reason this all matters is that a slower game leads to a higher chance of Texas covering and the total finishing Under. I think that’s why there is a good chance the Longhorns will be comfortable playing at the Blue Devils’ pace.

EvanMiya’s college basketball projections suggest this total should be closer to 148, so I like the value on this Under at 152 or better.

Score prediction: Duke 79, Texas 70

🆚 Texas vs. Duke matchup to watch

Cameron Boozer vs. the No. 1 pick hype

Cameron, the son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, is one of three potential candidates to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. The other two got off to strong starts last night, as BYU forward AJ Dybantsa scored 21 points (clearing my Over of 18.5) and Kansas guard Darryn Peterson scored 21 in 22 minutes.

I wouldn’t be surprised if these players are aware of how each other are doing all year. I suspect it’s on Boozer’s mind entering his debut, which is why it’s worth betting on him to produce.

In Duke’s two exhibition victories (including one over Tennessee), Boozer averaged 28.5 points and 17.5 rebounds per game. I like his chances of dominating the glass in Game 1, which is why the Over on 10.5 boards at bet365 is the most appealing option. FanDuel has the same line set at 11.5.

Our Mike Spector is targeting Duke guard Isaiah Evans instead in his best college basketball player prop bets today.

Best prop bet: Cameron Boozer Over 10.5 rebounds (-135 via bet365)

📺 How to watch Texas vs. Duke

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 4
• Tipoff: 8:45 p.m. ET
• Location: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: ESPN