Michigan State vs. Wisconsin College Basketball Picks: Badgers Favored at Home

Mike Randle

Last Updated: January 21, 2022 7:02 AM EST • 2 min 62 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - NOVEMBER 24: Johnny Davis #1 of the Wisconsin Badgers shoots against Kyle Bowen #14 and Tommy Kuhse #12 of the St. Mary's Gaels during the championship game of the 2021 Maui Invitational basketball tournament at Michelob ULTRA Arena on November 24, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Wisconsin won 61-55. David Becker/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by David Becker / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Friday night brings us a huge Big Ten clash between Michigan State and Wisconsin, and we break down the marquee matchup with our top college basketball picks of the day.

The Badgers are one of the youngest teams in the country, with only 1.45 years of average experience on their roster. Despite only being ranked 10th in the preseason poll, Wisconsin is 6-1 in conference play, tied with Illinois for first place. The Badgers enter Friday's contest on a seven-game win streak.

Michigan State was underrated in the preseason, failing to be ranked in the Top 25 entering the 2021-2022 season. However, the Spartans are 14-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference, suffering their first Big Ten loss at home to Northwestern on Saturday.

Here are my picks and predictions for Friday's college basketball matchup between Wisconsin and Michigan State (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, Jan. 21, 9 p.m. ETTV: FS1Location: Kohl Center, Madison, WI

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Odds Analysis

Wisconsin opened as a 4-point home favorite but that has been down across the board with 63% of the handle on Michigan State. The Badgers have, however, received 55% of the tickets.

The public and sharps are aligned on the Over, with it receiving 71% of the bets and 75% of the cash. Still, it has remained flat at 139.5 at most books.

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Picks

Michigan State +2.5 (+100) ????Under 139.5 (-105) ????

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Predictions

Michigan State +2.5 (+100)

Few teams have been more impressive than Wisconsin this season. The Badgers have played a challenging schedule and found success on the road and at home. However, Friday's matchup against the Spartans will be their biggest test of the season.

The Spartans offense will attack Wisconsin at its weakest point: 3-point defense. The Spartans are shooting 38.8% from beyond the arc, ninth-best in the country. Leading-scorer Gabe Brown (14.2 points per game) is shooting a blistering 38.8% from deep, while forward Malik Hall (55.9%), guard Tyson Walker (57.1%), and forward Joey Hauser (34.1%) are also shooting well on fewer attempts. Michigan State is a versatile team that has finally found consistency from 3-point range, something it has really struggled with in recent seasons.

However, the biggest reason I’m backing the Spartans is their defense. They are one of the few teams that can match Wisconsin in defensive efficiency, actually ranking higher than the Badgers in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. Michigan State is also fantastic on the boards, negating one of the biggest advantages the Badgers usually have over their opponents.

Walker has played his best basketball of the season, after struggling with turnovers for most the campaign. He has 24 points and 16 assists over Sparty’s last three games, and he has served as the perfect floor general to set up Michigan State’s shooters.

Wisconsin has performed at a high level all season, but the Badgers have held an advantage on defense against almost all of their opponents. That will be negated against Michigan State, and force a young team to try and match the physicality of the veteran Spartans.

I think the Badgers fall short in that battle tonight, and will gladly grab the three points.

https://twitter.com/Evan_Flood/status/1484141877393870852

Under 139.5 (-105)

Wisconsin has been a machine to the Over this season, with a 12-5 record against the number, and te Badgers have actually hit seven consecutive overs. However, I think that changes on Friday against a team that can match up the Badgers on defense and on the boards.

The Badgers do not bring strong offensive metrics, shooting a modest 31.5% from 3-point range and 49% from inside the arc. Wisconsin also fails to force turnovers, ranking 244th in defensive turnover efficiency per KenPom. The Badgers have won their games as a result of solid fundamentals, limited offensive turnovers, and capitalizing on opponents' mistakes.

However, the Spartans bring a metrically superior defense and elite 3-point shooting, similar in style to the Houston Cougars. Wisconsin faced Houston in Las Vegas earlier in the season, and came away with a 65-63 win. However, in that game, the Badgers shot an incredible 70% from the field in the first half, gaining a 40-20 lead. Wisconsin barely held off a massive rally for the win. This is the exact type of matchup that will cause problems for the Badgers.

Both teams play at a decent, but not fast pace. I project a strong defensive effort at the Kohl Center between two top defensive teams. I'm backing the Under 139.5points, in a game where I don’t think both teams reach 70 points.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Michigan State-Wisconsin picks made 1/212022 at 12:24 p.m. ET.