March Madness Sweet 16 Parlay Picks for Thursday

Two Elite Eight berths are on the line in the West and South regions on Thursday. Read on for our top-three March Madness parlay picks from Thursday’s Sweet 16 action.

Unlike Friday’s Sweet 16 slate, Thursday’s matchups feel more “chalky,” as just one double-digit seed is in action among the eight teams playing. The two West Region matchups between Arkansas-Gonzaga and Texas Tech-Duke went according to seeding. Even No. 5 seed Houston’s matchup against No. 1 Arizona is not an “upset” since the Cougars were favored in the Round of 32 against Illinois.

Among our three parlay picks, we offer our best bet on the one game involving a double-digit seed in Michigan. In addition, we suggest that the highest total on the board among all Elite Eight games is not high enough, and we branch out from the traditional ATS and O/U plays to identify a team total that presents excellent value.

Here are my top parlay picks for Thursday’s Sweet 16 March Madness matchups (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SEE ALSO: March Madness Odds and Picks

Thursday's Top March Madness Parlay Picks

Villanova -4.5 (-110) vs. Michigan????Arkansas-Gonzaga Over 155(-110)???Arizona team total Under 73.5(-125)???

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets

March Madness Parlay Predictions

Villanova -5 (-110)

The Michigan Wolverines were widely thought of as a team that should not have been invited to the “Big Dance” based on their 17-14 record at the time. However, after two impressive wins over Colorado State and Tennessee, many have changed their tune on the Wolverines. They now view them more like the team that was projected to compete for a Big Ten championship with Purdue. At first glance, this number feels like oddsmakers are begging bettors to side with Michigan, but we will not take the bait and instead back the experienced Villanova Wildcats.

Villanova is difficult to beat in close games, as they never get rattled or lose composure. In addition, they are on pace to be the best free-throw shooting team in NCAA history, and their 82.61% team free-throw percentage gives them a considerable advantage when closing out games.

The Wildcats will have their hands full with Hunter Dickinson, who has scored at least 21 points in four of his last five games. Though Villanova is historically undersized, they make up for that in physicality. Rarely does Jay Wright let a team consistently beat him with one player. Pressuring Michigan’s guards is one way to limit Dickinson if they have more difficulty getting him the ball, which is an issue for the Wolverines if starting point guard DeVante’ Jones is once again limited.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Sweet 16 Upset Picks

Arkansas-Gonzaga Over 155 (-110)

The Under is likely to be a popular play at this number given Arkansas’ abysmal offensive performance against New Mexico State. However, while the Aggies were successfully mucked up that game and turned it into a half-court grind, this game against Gonzaga should be played with much more pace.

Gonzaga and Arkansas rank sixth and 28th in adjusted tempo, so neither will mind getting into a track meet. The Razorbacks may want to think twice about running and gunning with Gonzaga, as their biggest wins against Kentucky and Tennessee had limited possessions compared to their other fast-paced games. If Gonzaga builds an early lead, Arkansas will feel compelled to run more and initiate offense early, thus resulting in a high-possession game.

From an X’s and O’s standpoint, Arkansas does not have much frontcourt depth behind Jaylin Williams. If either Drew Timme or Chet Holmgren can get Williams in foul trouble, the Razorbacks will have serious issues defending the paint.

SEE ALSO: Arkansas vs. Gonzaga Picks

Arizona team total Under 73.5 (-125)

We do not dabble in team totals much, but the way oddsmakers set the line for this game screams that the Wildcats should be in for struggles offensively.

In Arizona’s three losses this season, Tennessee, UCLA, and Colorado held the Wildcats to an average of 65 points. Conventional wisdom would say one should not be shocked that Arizona lost the games where they did not score a lot. But it also begs the question of what did those teams do to be so successful against them, to hold them well below their 84.6 ppg scoring average (third-best in the country).

The most common theme among the three games is that they limited Arizona in transition and forced them to play in the half-court. In addition, they were physical with them on defense and attacked their guards. There is perhaps no more physical team left in the tournament than Houston, and we expect Kelvin Sampson to expertly devise a game plan to make the Wildcats beat them in a slow-paced game.

This projected total is 11 points lower than Arizona averages on the season, but do not be surprised when the Cougars impose their will defensively.

Combined odds: Villanova -5 (-110) + Arkansas-Gonzaga Over 155 (-110) + Arizona team total Under 73.5 (-125) = +556

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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March Madness parlay picks made 3/23/2022 at 9:50 a.m. ET.