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Trayce Jackson-Davis of the Indiana Hoosiers drives to the hoop as we look at our Indiana vs. Miami prediction
Trayce Jackson-Davis of the Indiana Hoosiers drives to the hoop against the Kent State Golden Flashes during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at MVP Arena on Mar. 17, 2023 in Albany, New York. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images via AFP.

The fourth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers face the fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes with a Sweet 16 spot on the line. Read on for our best Miami vs. Indiana prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.

Both Indiana and Miami made it to the Round of 32, despite playing formidable double-digit seeded foes to begin the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Indiana comes off a 71-60 win over Kent State, while Miami recorded a 63-56 victory against Drake.

The Hurricanes have a lethal backcourt and come off an Elite Eight run last year, but the Hoosiers are short favorites in this matchup. Indiana has the best player in this game in forward Trayce Jackson-Davis, but will the big man be enough to lift IU to its first Sweet 16 since 2016?

Here is our best Miami vs. Indiana prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Miami vs. Indiana odds

Miami vs. Indiana prediction

Indiana ML (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It has been seven years since the Hoosiers made it to the second weekend of a NCAA Tournament, but we like their chances of prevailing Sunday to advance to Kansas City next weekend.

Nobody in college basketball has played better than Jackson-Davis. TJD put up an incredulous stat line of 24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and five blocks in Friday’s 11-point win over Drake. He's now scored at least 25 points in five consecutive games.

Check out our March Madness best bets and all of our top NCAA Tournament picks for Sunday

Miami has a talented backcourt, but it'll have a hard time defending Jackson-Davis. According to Synergy Sports Technology, the Hurricanes rank in an NCAAB sixth percentile at defending post-up plays. They're in the 39th percentile at defending all shots at the rim.

ShotQuality projects a 74-69 win for Indiana, which gives spread bettors plenty of wiggle room to work with. But since the line is so low, take the -125 moneyline offering instead. If the ML price gets much longer, lay -2 or better as a spread wager for Indiana.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Miami vs. Indiana best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Indiana MLIndiana MLIndiana MLIndiana MLIndiana ML

The moneyline sits at -125 at four of our five top-rated sportsbooks at the time of writing, with FanDuel the lone exception. Play this at DraftKings due to the same-game parlay options.

For instance, Jackson-Davis had an assist prop of 4.5 at DraftKings as of Saturday afternoon. He cleared this mark in seven consecutive games, and should get to show off his passing prowess once again in a win Sunday.

Miami vs. Indiana odds analysis

The betting lines for this game dropped Friday evening, but haven’t moved much since then. The spread remains at 1.5 at most places, with some shops testing a 2-point spread. The total is now 145.5 after opening at 147.

Miami vs. Indiana game info

  • Date: Sunday, March 19, 7:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: MVP Arena, Albany, NY

Miami-Indiana pick made 3/18/2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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