Houston vs. Villanova: 2022 March Madness Picks and Odds

The very first Elite Eight matchup of March Madness pits the Houston Cougars against the Villanova Wildcats. Read on for our best against the spread and Over/Under picks in the North Carolina-UCLA game.

If you didn’t know it before, you know it by now: Houston is not your typical fifth seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The Cougars were drastically underseeded by the committee, and they’ve responded by proving themselves as one of the top teams in the country. Houston has demolished every team in its wake to get here, including top seed Arizona.

Villanova has managed to be the chalk of the region, beating up on lower seeds to earn a spot in this Elite Eight bout. Though overlooking Jay Wright and the Wildcats is not advised, it seems the sportsbooks have caught onto the notion that Houston deserves more respect than it has been getting.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s college basketball matchup between Houston and Villanova (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Houston vs. Villanova Matchup Info

Date/Time: Saturday, March 26, 6:09 p.m. ETTV: TBSLocation: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX

Houston vs. Villanova Odds Analysis

The line opened with Houston as two-point favorites and has moved further in that direction to Houston as 2.5-point favorites at most major sportsbooks. It’s intriguing that Houston, the five-seed, comes in as such solid favorites over the two-seed, but the Cougars have been one of the best in the country at covering spreads this season. Houston comes in at 25-12 ATS, while Villanova has a solid record of 19-15-2 ATS on the year.

The total opened at 128.5 before dropping to 127 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. BetMGM still has the total sitting at 127.5. Interestingly, the handle and ticket count both trend toward the Over, despite the decrease in the number over the course of time. Houston games have gone 16-21 on the Over this season. Contests involving Villanova have also leaned in that direction, going 17-18-1 on the Over.

Houston vs. Villanova Picks

Houston -2.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ????Under 127.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ?????

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds

Houston -2.5 (-110)

Don’t look now, but Houston hasn’t played a single close game in this entire NCAA Tournament. The Cougar's smallest margin of victory came by 12 points over No. 1 Arizona in the Sweet 16. Although Villanova has also handled its previous opponents in convincing fashion as well, a 10-point win over Ohio State and an eight-point win over Michigan isn’t quite the same as Houston bulldozing the No. 1 and No. 4 seeds in its region by a combined 27 points.

As the No. 5 seed, it’s also interesting to see Houston get such a significant advantage in terms of the host site for this Elite Eight contest. The Cougars will be playing in front of a friendly crowd in San Antonio. That should serve to benefit their side at a rate that should be considered unusual for a neutral site contest this deep into the tournament. But when it comes to their prowess on the court, it could be argued that the Cougars don’t need any extra help to deserve being favored in this game.

Houston has an edge in the KenPom metrics, ranking as the No. 2 team in the country. That was its spot even before the win over Arizona in the Sweet 16. This Cougars team reached the Final Four last year, and they have the experience and coaching under Kelvin Sampson to do it again. Jay Wright is a tremendous coach on the other side, but this doesn’t feel on paper like one of his best Villanova groups.

Houston is a buzzsaw at this point, having played a tougher path to get here as a result of its seeding mishap. They have responded to its criminally poor seeding by the committee by simply shellacking every team in its path to this point. Forged by the fire, I like Houston to stay in the flames Saturday to reach their second consecutive Final Four.

Under 127.5 (-110)

Though both teams rate inside the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, this game is expected to be a scoring slog according to the sportsbooks. Both implied team totals sit in the low 60s based on the 127.5 total. That comes as a result of these two teams being among the most disciplined in the nation with regard to their pace.

Houston’s adjusted tempo checks in at No. 338 in the country. That's not as slow as Villanova’s, which falls 14 spots from the literal bottom in Division I college basketball. Both the Cougars and Wildcats employ a similar strategy. They look to limit the number of possessions in a game, knowing that their offenses are among the most efficient in the entire sport. That the teams are such mirror images of one another in that regard could make for compelling arguments as to which team should prevail. It seems assured that points will be at a premium with both sides looking to execute that same measured game plan.

The scoring totals for Villanova’s opponents in this tournament: 60, 61, 55. For Houston’s opponents: 68, 53, 60. This game seems ripe for a recipe involving a final in the low-60s to upper-50s. That’s a script that would land the total points below even this admittedly low total at BetMGM.

Where to Bet on Houston-Villanova Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Houston-Villanova picks made 3/26/2022 at 11:54 a.m. ET