Monday's Top College Basketball Expert Picks: Seattle Not Getting Enough Respect

Our top college basketball expert picks for Monday highlight the best against the spread and Over/Under picks on a big slate.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Monday's college basketball games (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top College Basketball Picks

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Top College Basketball Expert Spread Picks

Alcorn State -4 (-105)

One of college basketball's best-kept secrets is that Alcorn State is a robust 13-3 against the spread this season. The Braves are also a perfect 4-0 in SWAC play, and are coming off a season-defining win over preseason SWAC-favorite Texas Southern.

They now face another formidable task in Prairie View A&M, which has played a very challenging non-conference schedule. The Panthers competed in true road contests at Saint Mary's, San Francisco, Texas Tech, and Wichita State. However, that hasn't translated into a strong SWAC start, after a shocking home loss to Mississippi Valley State and Saturday's 11-point home loss to Jackson State. 

Alcorn State boasts a strong non-conference schedule as well, with experience at Gonzaga, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Wichita State. I'm buying the Braves' resurgence this season, and don't see them stumbling at home. I expect a close game between two SWAC rivals, that will see Alcorn State eventually pull away for the victory late. - Randle

Howard +11 (-110)

This is Howard’s sixth home game of the season and arguably its biggest home game in program history as it is not every day an ACC team visits a small school from the MEAC. Notre Dame has a quick turnaround after a challenging game at Virginia Tech on Saturday, and the Fighting Irish could be in for a letdown with this quirky non-conference game scheduled in between their ACC schedule.

Howard plays at a top-30 tempo, which is a pace at which Notre Dame is uncomfortable playing. The Bison also knock down 3-pointers at a 39.2% clip, good for 12th in the country. Howard has scheduled well in the non-conference, playing at Villanova, Georgetown, and Harvard. That should help prepare this Bison team for what they will treat as their Super Bowl, while the Fighting Irish may not give Howard their full attention. - Spector

Seattle -2 (-110)

The Seattle University Redhawks come into Monday's game red hot, winners of their last four games, including a 3-0 start to WAC play. The Redhawks (12-4, 3-0) go on the road as slight favorites against a California Baptist Lancers squad that the metrics don't appreciate nearly as much as they do the visitors.

While the Lancers (11-5, 1-2) have been OK against the spread this season at 6-7, they don't seem to quite stack up to the level of the Redhawks (8-5-1 ATS) as well as the thin spread would indicate.

The Redhawks also have an advantage in the KenPom rankings at 172 to 233 for Cal Baptist. Cal Baptist enters Monday with one of the softest schedules in the nation on the season, and though the Lancers get the game at home, they simply aren't the better team in Monday's matchup. - Schaeffer

Top College Basketball Expert O/U Picks

Florida A&M-Mississippi Valley State Over 143.5 (-110)

This is Florida A&M's inaugural season as a member of the Southwestern Athletic Conference, and it will be greeted with a fast-paced battle at Mississippi Valley State this evening. The Delta Devils are most comfortable in a track meet setting, as they rank eighth in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. They are 10-4-1 to the Over this season, including 4-1 at home.

Florida A&M is just 5-7-1 to the Over this season but has allowed its opponents to exceed 70 points in three of the prior six matchups. Given the unfamiliarity with Mississippi Valley State, I project the Rattlers to get pulled into an uptempo battle. The Delta Devils rank 41st in defensive turnover rate, which should translate to a game total that is closer to 150 points. - Randle

Indiana-Nebraska Under 146 (-105)

Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and 2-point percentage allowed. However, the Hoosiers are coming off a poor defensive performance in allowing 83 points on the road to Iowa. That game marked the second time the Hoosiers surrendered 80 points all year.

Monday's game against Nebraska is the perfect "get right" game for their defense, as the Cornhuskers run one of the most isolation offenses in the country. Nebraska's possessions often revolve around standing and watching guard Alonzo Verge operate, and the Cornhuskers don't have the ball movement and quick passing offense of Iowa. Nebraska has allowed 86.4 points per game during a five-game losing streak, but Indiana scored just 68 points in the first matchup of the season between these teams, and the Hoosiers have averaged just 66.5 PPG in their six Big Ten games.

Thus, we are banking on another low-scoring game in this rematch of conference opponents. - Spector

Lamar-Stephen F. Austin Over 136.5 (-115)

The Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin are primed for a healthy offensive output on Monday night when they take on Lamar in a Western Athletic Conference matchup. An SF Austin (10-6, 2-2) offense averaging 74.4 points per game (123rd in the nation) should have no trouble getting into its rhythm at home.

Lamar (2-14, 0-4) averages just 55.5 points per game (355th), so the concern that the Cardinals won't carry their weight toward pushing this game to the Over is valid; however, Lamar shouldn't need to score much beyond 60 points to do its part in a game environment where I expect the Lumberjacks to cover the 15-point spread.

Both scoring defenses rank outside the top 200, so there shouldn't be a premium on points to the extent suggested by the total set at DraftKings. I have the total pushing to clear 140, putting this line as a value by a handful of points. - Schaeffer

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