Drake vs. Southern Illinois College Basketball Picks: Salukis Enter as Home Dogs

There is nothing better than a great Monday night battle in the Missouri Valley Conference. We break down the key matchup between Drake and Southern Illinois with our top college basketball picks.

Southern Illinois plays host to Drake, in a game that is critical to both teams in the MVC hierarchy. Drake entered the year as the conference favorite, earning 29 first-place votes in the preseason poll. Southern Illinois was ranked fifth but had top three consideration after returning its entire roster from last season’s 12-14 campaign. 

The Salukis believe they belong among the elite teams in the Missouri Valley Conference, and the Bulldogs want to prove that last season’s 26-5 record was not an outlier.  

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday night’s college basketball matchup between the Drake Bulldogs and Southern Illinois Salukis (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, Jan. 17, 8 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: SIU Arena, Carbondale, IL

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Odds Analysis

Southern Illinois is 8-7 against the spread, including 4-2 at home. The Salukis covered in each of their last three games, and in three of four in conference play. However, this line has moved to Drake -2 from a pick 'em at the opener. Eighty-five percent of the money bet on the spread has been the Bulldogs.

Drake was one of the best teams in the country last year against the spread. The Bulldogs finished 21-8 but started the season 11-0 ATS. However, this year the Bulldogs have been the complete opposite. Drake is just 3-11 ATS, including 0-2 on the road. They are actually 0-4 ATS in Missouri Valley play as well.

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Picks

Southern Illinois +2 (-114) ????Under 130.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: All College Basketball Picks

Drake vs. Southern Illinois Predictions

Southern Illinois +2 (-114)

The Salukis entered this season with much higher internal expectations than most realize. They want to end a 14-year postseason drought, having last played in the NIT in 2008 and NCAA Tournament in 2007. 

They certainly have the roster to do it, led by forward Marcus Domask (16.4 points per game, 4.9 rebounds per game). The 6-foot-6 junior has scored 20 or more points in four straight games while shooting a blistering 11 of 20 (55%) from 3-point range during that time. Southern Illinois plays at a slow pace (352nd in the nation), but is incredibly efficient on offense. Under head coach Bryan Mullins, the Salukis have always been a great 3-point shooting team, ranking 31st last season (37.2%) and 88th this year (35.7%). However, they have greatly increased their efficiency inside the arc, shooting 53.2% (66th) overall this year. 

The Salukis have also greatly improved at defending the 3-point arc, allowing opponents to hit just 30.3% from deep, and a conference-best 30.4% in Missouri Valley play. This will be a huge deterrent to a Drake team that generates over 32% of its points from deep. 

The key to this game is the health of Drake starting point guard Roman Penn, who just returned after reinjuring his left foot. Penn missed the end of last season with this same foot injury, and he has missed seven games this year. Head coach Darian DeVries announced that Penn will not try to play through the injury, and Penn has posted decent production. In his three games back, Penn is averaging 11.7 points and 4.3 assists per game. However, his minutes per game are greatly reduced, averaging just 25 MPG since his return. 

The Bulldogs are a solid defensive team but are weak against the 3-point line. Drake has allowed opponents to shoot 33.8% from deep, and a whopping 37% from beyond the arc in their four MVC games. It has also benefited from conference opponents shooting only 66.7% from the free-throw line. 

A focused Southern Illinois team, with strong offensive efficiency, playing against a Drake team with a limited Penn, is a very attractive home underdog.

Under 130.5 (-110)

Drake has averaged just 58 points per game in two MVC road contests. The Bulldogs also play at the 290th-ranked pace, per KenPom.com, similar to Southern Illinois, who ranks 352nd. 

The Salukis have been a heavy Under team this season, hitting at a 66.7% (10-5) rate. This projects as a very close conference game, with a minimal 2-point spread. 

The first meeting between these two teams in each of the past two seasons with Mullins as the Salukis coach was very low-scoring. They posted point totals of 115 and 128 points in those matchups. 

With Southern Illinois sitting at just 2-2 in the conference, and behind four other teams, this game is critical to any hope of contending for the MVC title. The Salukis are coming off a tough one-point home loss to Northern Iowa, a game they led with under five minutes left.  

I’m backing the Under of 130.5 total points, in another low-scoring and tight battle between two evenly matched teams.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Drake-Southern Illinois picks made 1/17/2022 at 9:36 a.m. ET.