Duke vs. Michigan State Predictions, Picks & Odds: Spartans Due for Positive Regression
In the first game of Tuesday's Champions Classic doubleheader, we have our best Duke vs. Michigan State prediction based on the best college basketball odds.
While nobody can win a title in the second week of the season, the annual Champions Classic is a good litmus test for the premier programs in college basketball. This year's Duke-Michigan State showdown is particularly compelling, as the loser of the matchup will leave Chicago with an overall record of 1-2.
Duke is coming off a home loss to Arizona after getting overwhelmed in the post. Michigan State, meanwhile, suffered an upset to James Madison in the opener and is shooting 2-for-31 from 3-point range through two games.
Which team will bounce back to pick up a signature victory?
To accompany our college basketball best bets and Kansas vs. Kentucky preview, here is our best Duke vs. Michigan State prediction for Tuesday's Champions Classic (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Duke vs. Michigan State prediction
A.J. Hoggard Over 4.5 assists (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's funny how basketball analysis works sometimes. It appears as if the sky is falling for Michigan State right now, but the truth is, this team is due for some significant positive shooting regression. According to ShotQuality, the Spartans are expected to shoot 34% based on their looks from deep instead of their putrid 6% clip. Chalk that up to a small sample size.
As a result, it makes sense to take advantage of some discounted offensive lines for Michigan State. You could look at the 3-point market, but my favorite angle is locking in on MSU senior point guard A.J. Hoggard ahead of this marquee matchup.
Hoggard has 13 points and seven assists through two games, and head coach Tom Izzo has recently said he needs more from his PG. That's especially true in the assist department, as Hoggard averaged 5.9 dimes per contest last year while ranking sixth in the country with an assist rate of 38.7% via KenPom. He has an assist rate of 24.1% this year, which would be the lowest mark in his career.
If Michigan State shoots the ball better, Hoggard will likely see an uptick in assist opportunities. We also expect the Spartans to push the ball in transition against a Duke team that couldn't keep up with Arizona last Friday. According to Synergy, Hoggard posted 41 assists on 72 transition opportunities last year compared to a 2-for-7 clip through two games this season.
Take advantage of the best sportsbooks overreacting from a small sample size on Hoggard and the Spartans. We expect better offensive results in a highly-anticipated matchup against Duke.
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Duke vs. Michigan State best odds
BetMGM (-120)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 assists | Over 4.5 assists | Over 4.5 assists | Over 4.5 assists | Over 4.5 assists |
| -145 | -138 | -120 | -164 | -120 |
Our best sports betting sites can't seem to agree on the vig for this Over, with Caesars charging as much as -164 while BetMGM and bet365 are providing a bargain at -120. We expect this line to move, so it's better to act fast.
If shooting for more upside, DraftKings is providing a +160 deal on Over 5.5 assists for Hoggard in the alternate assist market. bet365 has +330 odds on Hoggard to finish with seven or more assists. Those are typically the only two shops to offer alternate markets for those looking for a better payout.
Duke vs. Michigan State odds
Duke vs. Michigan State odds analysis
FanDuel first released Champions Classic odds on Nov. 9, listing Duke as a 2.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils are now laying -3.5 or -4 across our best sports betting apps. The total opened as high as 148.5 but has dropped to 142 as of this writing.
The season is young, but Michigan State is 0-2 against the spread after games against James Madison and Southern Indiana.
Duke vs. Michigan State game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 14 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: United Center, Chicago, IL
- How to watch: ESPN
Duke-Michigan State prediction made 11/14/2023 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
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