Central Connecticut State vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Picks: Knights Facing Blue Devils in First Conference Game

The very first conference tournament game of the season is scheduled for tonight as Central Connecticut State tangles with Fairleigh Dickinson for a spot in the NEC Quarterfinals. Read on for our Central Connecticut State-Fairleigh Dickinson picks.

The featured game of the day for Monday simply has to be the very first conference tournament game of the season. It may be Feb. 28, but the madness officially starts tonight! The Northeast Conference is the first to commence its annual league tournament this evening with a stand-alone First Round matchup. The ninth seed Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (CCSU) will take on the eighth Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (FDU) for a spot in the NEC Tournament Quarterfinals.

While CCSU (16-14 ATS, 9-20-1 O/U) won five games in NEC conference play this season, it has been a while since the Blue Devils were victorious. One would have to go all the way back to a road upset of Merrimack on February 10th to find CCSU’s last triumph. Thus, the Blue Devils enter tonight’s tournament matchup on a five-game losing streak. Furthermore, all five of those losses came by double-digits.

When one looks at a standings table, Fairleigh Dickinson (11-14 ATS, 14-11 O/U) shows up with five conference wins but only four victories overall. Thanks to forfeiture, the Knights’ final records make absolutely no sense. While the Knights dropped their regular-season finale against Long Island on Saturday, they pulled off a stunning 88-86 upset of Wagner on Feb. 24. That win along with tiebreakers ultimately allowed FDU to have home court for tonight's First Round tournament contest.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s college basketball Game of the Day between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Central Connecticut State vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Game Info

Date: Monday, Feb. 28, 7 p.m. ETTV: NEC Front RowLocation: Rothman Center, Hackensack, NJ

SEE ALSO: National Championship Betting Odds: Gonzaga Still Favorite

Central Connecticut State vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Odds Analysis

So far, the spread for tonight’s NEC Tournament battle has seen minimal significant action. Some sharp money has inflated the line to four points in favor of Fairleigh Dickinson. Oddsmakers initially opened the game with FDU laying -3.5. In terms of ticket count, an overwhelming 87% of spread bets are on the Knights as home favorites.

The total has seen a larger adjustment relative to the opening number. The betting market pounced on the under of the initial offering of 140. While current consensus lines have the total set at 138, bettors can find slight variations in either direction at select sportsbooks.

Central Connecticut State vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Picks

Fairleigh Dickinson -4 (-110) ????Over 138 (-110) ??

SEE ALSO: Early Targets for March Madness

Central Connecticut State vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Predictions

Fairleigh Dickinson -4 (-110)

When it comes to betting on the first conference tournament game of the year, aligning oneself with a team that does at least one thing well is quite clearly preferred. When it comes to the stats of the two teams battling tonight, Fairleigh Dickinson is the one to back.

By no means is the Northeast Conference a powerhouse league. This is reflected by the rankings and metrics of the bottom two teams in the conference tournament. Both CCSU and FDU rank among the 15 worst teams in all of Division I college basketball both in the net rankings and in KenPom’s overall efficiency. Interestingly enough, while the Blue Devils hold a slight edge in the net (345 vs. 348), it is the Knights who get the nod according to KenPom (346 vs. 349).

In terms of the capability of these two teams to score points offensively, both figure to thrive tonight considering how porous each is on defense. However, over the course of a full season, it was Fairleigh Dickinson who showed much more ability on the offensive end. The Knights averaged 77.7 points per game in conference, the third-most of any NEC team. CCSU was eighth in the conference in both scoring offense (69.0) and defense (75.8).

It also helps that Fairleigh Dickinson has home-court advantage for tonight’s NEC First Round matchup. The Knights clearly showed more upside down the stretch of the season by knocking off the most highly-regarded team in the Northeast Conference in Wagner 88-86. While CCSU and FDU split their two regular-season matchups, the Knights dominated the head-to-head meeting on their home floor, earning a 75-55 victory on Jan. 30.

Over 138 (-110)

In breaking down a side handicap above, we noted the stark difference in scoring offense between these two teams. Defensively, however, both Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson are equally awful. 

According to KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, the Blue Devils were 327th on that end of the floor ceding a whopping 112.2 points per 100 possessions. Based on straight scoring averages, CCSU was indeed horrendous in allowing opponents to pile up 75.8 ppg.

While the defensive statistics for Central Connecticut State leave plenty to be desired, those of Fairleigh Dickinson is actually even worse! KenPom graded the Knights 346th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, allowing 114.8 points per 100 possessions to opponents. All of the points that all the No. 3 scoring offense in the NEC managed were given back on the defensive end and then some. FDU surrendered a whopping 78.2 ppg.

Another element to note here is the leading scorer for each team. In both cases, it is an upperclassmen guard. Nigel Scantlebury led the Blue Devils this season averaging 13.1 ppg. For the Knights, junior Brandon Rush produced 14.1. Come tournament time in March, the old and very true adage is that guard play is extremely important. 

CCSU and FDU split the difference as far as eclipsing the betting total in their two regular-season meetings. After combining for 130 total points in the first matchup — a blowout win for the Knights — the two teams amassed a whopping 173 points in the more recent encounter.

Where to Bet on College Basketball Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Central Connecticut State-Fairleigh Dickinson picks made 2/28/2022 at 12:57 p.m. ET.