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College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

Our college basketball player props and best bets for Tuesday based on the best college basketball odds dive into a loaded slate of games.

After a night where a Big Ten blowout was the main event, Tuesday's college basketball slate looks much better from start to finish. There are 10 ranked teams in action, headlined by a showdown between No. 9 North Carolina and No. 5 UConn.

Dan Hurley's Huskies are coming off a road loss to Kansas over the weekend, which snapped a 24-game win streak (all by double-digits) in non-conference play. But Hurley was adamant after the game that a marquee matchup like that was good for the sport. Well, it doesn't get much bigger than a battle between the defending national champs and UNC in Madison Square Garden.

After losing our lone bet on Monday night, here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s college basketball schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

Tuesday’s college basketball best bets

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Tuesday’s college basketball player props

KJ Adams Jr. (Kansas) Under 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 via DraftKings) vs. UMKC ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kansas forward KJ Adams Jr. had a huge performance on Friday in a win over UConn. He scored 18 points with five rebounds and two assists in 38 minutes of action. It was an amazing story, as the performance unfortunately came the night before he attended his mother's funeral.

But from a betting perspective, that kind of showing has bumped Adams' odds. His points prop has jumped up to 13.5 when he's averaging 11.8 points per game, while his rebounds line is trading at 4.5 even though he's only averaging 3.6 boards per contest. You have to pay decent juice to take the Under on his points, rebounds, or assists prop now.

Instead, let's pay -105 vig to take the Under on a PRA line of 19.5. The Over on this is juiced up to -130, but I believe that should be switched based on a projection of below 18 PRA. He has only cleared this line in three of the eight games this season, with two coming in signature wins over UConn and Kentucky.

After playing a season-high 38 minutes last time out, Adams (along with the rest of KU's starters) should play fewer minutes in a game where the Jayhawks are favored by more than 25 points. That should reduce his scoring opportunities, notably when he ranks fourth among the starters in usage rating this season. He's also not grabbing as many rebounds as last year after sliding from the center position to power forward.

I believe we are looking at a stat line of 12 points, three rebounds, and two assists for Adams in this one. With the wiggle room on the PRA line, that's the best way of fading some of these inflated prop lines.

KJ Adams Jr. best bet made 12/05/2023 at 10:01 a.m. ET

Tuesday’s college basketball game picks

Villanova ML (-134 via FanDuel) vs. Kansas State ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Admittedly, I have a problem with taking road favorites and have been burned many times by trusting my numbers in the heart of conference play. But I do think we are getting value on Villanova in a road non-conference matchup with Kansas State due to recent form.

Villanova was ranked inside the top 20 on Kenpom as recently as Nov. 24, but has dropped down to No. 34 overall after back-to-back losses to Saint Joseph's and Drexel. As is usually the case, shooting is a big reason for that. Per ShotQuality, Villanova had a 84% win expectancy against Saint Joseph's and a 98% win expectancy against Drexel.

I like to fade the overreactions based on small-sample shooting, and the market agrees with me. That's why the best of the number has since passed, when our best sports betting apps opened the spread KSU -1 based on Kenpom's projection of 72-71.

With the spread now as high as Villanova -2.5, I prefer taking a discounted moneyline price at FanDuel. The -134 value has an implied probability of 57.2%, but Evan Miya gives Kyle Neptune's squad a 62% chance of victory with a projection of 72.7-69.5 in favor of the road team.

I'm not sure how full Bramlage Coliseum will be for a non-conference game, especially when K-State head coach Jerome Tang has already voiced his displeasure with the Big 12/Big East challenge. In a battle of the Wildcats, I'm siding with the road Cats to prevail in this one.

Villanova-Kansas State best bet made 12/05/2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET

March Madness betting odds pages

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