Arkansas State vs. Troy Prediction Tonight: Sun Belt Final Best Bets, Odds & Score Picks
Tonight's Sun Belt championship features the third-seeded Troy Trojans and fourth-seeded Arkansas State Red Wolves. Tipoff is slated for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2) at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Fla.
Our Arkansas State vs. Troy prediction, odds, and expert picks expect a toss-up in tonight's conference title game. The Red Wolves are slight favorites (-2.5) at our best sports betting sites.
These teams split the regular-season series, with each side stealing a game away from home, so who holds the advantage tonight? Head over to our SBR bracketology for more on the NCAA Tournament, which will feature the winner.
💰 Arkansas State vs. Troy predictions, expert picks & best bets: Sun Belt Final
Here are my best Arkansas State vs. Troy predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for the Sun Belt Final, with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: Troy +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Arkansas State ⭐⭐⭐
- My best team prop bet: Arkansas State Under 70.5 points (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Exact score prediction: Troy 73, Arkansas State 68 (+16000 via DraftKings) ⭐
🏀 Arkansas State vs. Troy ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick
Here's why I'm betting on Troy to cover the spread (+1.5) while targeting Arkansas State Under 70.5 points as my best prop bet pick for today:
✅ Troy to cover the spread (+1.5) ⭐⭐⭐
It’s hard to find much that separates these two teams. Both enter on five-game winning streaks, and both upset one of the top two seeds in the conference while advancing to the final. Considering how close the first two meetings between these two teams were, it would be shocking to see either pull away in this one.
However, I’m backing the Trojans. They absolutely dominated the James Madison Dukes yesterday, holding them to just 32.3% shooting from the floor. The Red Wolves enter the contest averaging 79.1 points per game, but I worry their shooters may have tired legs while playing three games in as many days, and that could give the Trojans' defense a significant advantage.
The Trojans are allowing just 65.5 points per game, and they’ve allowed 60 or fewer points in three consecutive outings. The Red Wolves may top that, but after consecutive tight games, I expect the Trojans to be the fresher team and get enough stops to secure victory late.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Arkansas State Under 70.5 points
The Red Wolves are averaging 79.1 points per game, so some bettors may be shocked to see this number set nearly nine points below that average. To me, this feels like a classic trap from oddsmakers at our best sportsbooks.
The Red Wolves just put up 74 points against the top team in the Sun Belt, and they've now scored 74-plus points in five consecutive games. But they only tallied 70 against the Trojans the last time these two schools clashed, and that game didn't occur while playing their third contest in three days.
The Trojans rank 24th in scoring defense after allowing 65.5 points per game to Division I opponents this season. They’ve held five consecutive teams to fewer than 70 points, and 10 of their last 11 opponents have been limited to below that number too. The only team that scored more than 70 barely topped the number at 72.
📊 Best odds: -112 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $8.93)
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🎯 Expert Arkansas State vs. Troy score prediction
🔮 Expert score prediction: Troy 73, Arkansas State 68
If the first two meetings this season are any indicator, this is going to be a close game. However, I’m going with the underdogs, as their style of play is more favorable to playing three games in three nights
The Trojans average 73.3 points per game, and they should get right around that number tonight against a defense allowing 69.4 per contest. On the other side, I expect the Red Wolves’ offense to struggle against the Trojans’ potent defense. They’re averaging 77 points against them so far this season, but after a thriller yesterday against the top team in the conference, I have them going way below that number.
📊 Best odds: +16000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1600)
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📊 Live Arkansas State vs. Troy odds & latest betting splits
Here are the latest odds for Arkansas State vs. Troy, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
The public is backing Arkansas State over Troy as tipoff approaches. The Red Wolves have moved to 2.5-point favorites in the hours leading up to the Sun Belt title game.
🔢 Arkansas State vs. Troy opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for Arkansas State vs. Troy according to BetMGM.
- Spread: Arkansas State -1.5 (-110) | Troy +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas State -125 | Troy +105
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 (-110) | Under 138.5 (-110)
🏆 Who will win Arkansas State vs. Troy?
As of late afternoon on Monday, Arkansas State is the 2.5-point favorite to beat Troy while getting moneyline odds of -138 at FanDuel, which suggest a 57.98% win probability for the Red Wolves. We're predicting a 73-68 triumph for the Trojans as our final score projection.
So far, 61% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Arkansas State to cover the spread, while 78% expect the game to finish Over the projected total of 141.5 points.
📺 How to watch Arkansas State vs. Troy tonight
📅 Date: Monday, March 10
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Pensacola Bay Center (Pensacola, Fla.)
📺 TV: ESPN2
💻 Streaming: ESPN+
❓ Arkansas State vs. Troy FAQs
Who's favored to win the Sun Belt tournament?
After upsetting the top-seeded South Alabama Jaguars, the Red Wolves are favored to win the tournament.
Who is favored to win Arkansas State vs. Troy?
The Red Wolves are getting a moneyline of -138, implying a win probability of 57.98%.
What are the betting odds for Arkansas State vs. Troy?
The latest spread is Arkansas State -2.5 (-105 at Caesars) | Troy +2.5 (-110 at ESPN BET), with a total of 141.5 points (-110).
What will be the final score of Arkansas State vs. Troy?
We're predicting a final score of Troy 73, Arkansas State 68 entering tonight's matchup at Pensacola Bay Center.
What time is Arkansas State vs. Troy tonight?
Arkansas State vs. Troy will tip-off tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET.
⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites
Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
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