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Alabama vs. UConn Prediction, Final Four Expert Pick & Odds: Can Crimson Tide Upset Favorites?

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: April 6, 2024 6:08 PM EDT • 2 min 45 sec read.

Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, and Alex Karaban of the UConn Huskies look on against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. We're backing the Huskies defense in our Alabama vs. UConn prediction.
Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, and Alex Karaban of the UConn Huskies look on against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

The top-seeded UConn Huskies face the fourth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide in the men's Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament on Saturday, as we offer our best Alabama vs. UConn prediction and expert pick based on the top Final Four odds.

After a dominant run in last year's NCAA Tournament, the UConn Huskies (35-3) have maintained their impressive form this season, securing the top seed and emerging as the favorite in the March Madness odds.

Their quest for glory continues as they seek to extend their remarkable 11-game winning streak in Saturday's Final Four showdown against the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (25-11). The highly anticipated matchup is set to tip off at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS, live from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

With the Huskies holding an 11.5-point advantage over Alabama, according to our best sports betting sites, the Crimson Tide face a formidable foe. Despite securing their first-ever Final Four appearance with impressive victories over top-seeded North Carolina and sixth-seeded Clemson, Alabama now confronts the daunting task of maintaining its momentum against the defending champions.

Along with our NC State vs. Purdue prediction and other men's Final Four expert picks, here is our best Alabama vs. UConn prediction and expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

For more on this game, check out our Alabama vs. UConn player props.

Alabama (4) vs. UConn (1) game info

  • When: Saturday, April 6
  • Tip-off: 8:49 p.m. ET
  • Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Favorite: UConn -11.5 (-105 via Caesars)

Alabama vs. UConn odds

Alabama vs. UConn prediction

Alabama Under 74.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via Caesars

For all the attention paid to UConn's top-ranked offense, its defense has been the driving force for this year's dominant run through the NCAA Tournament. And 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan is a major reason why.

There's a case to be made that Clingan is the best player in this tournament, even over Purdue's Zach Edey. He's the favorite at DraftKings in the latest March Madness MVP odds, and he's already drawing comparisons to a collegiate Bill Walton with the way he erased Illinois' scoring threat inside in a truly special Elite Eight performance.

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Consider that Illinois' offense, which entered that game ranked No. 1 in adjusted efficiency, scored just 52 points and suffered through a 30-0 run that effectively ended the game. It was just the latest victim to a UConn defense that has held five straight teams under 60 points and allowed 75 or more points just six times all year and once in its last 11 games.

Nate Oats' group loves to get up the floor with tempo, which is the best way to attack a team with a dominant interior defender like Clingan. Still, the Huskies are loaded with capable defenders and should be able to dictate the pace of Saturday's contest, which would effectively kill any chances of the Over cashing on this prop.

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Alabama vs. UConn spread & Over/Under analysis

UConn has won each of its four tournament games by at least 17 points, and our best sportsbooks expect a similar showing on Saturday, pricing the Huskies between -11.5 and -12 in the days ahead of their Final Four showdown with Alabama.

Even so, the betting total is trading between 160.5 and 161.5, with BetMGM on the lower end of that range and FanDuel on the upper end. Our lean is to the full-game Under, though we'd rather target Alabama's team total and let UConn's offense operate as it may.

Alabama-UConn prediction made Thursday at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.