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Zach Edey of the Purdue Boilermakers looks on against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half in the Elite 8 as we look at our Purdue-NC State prediction.
Zach Edey of the Purdue Boilermakers looks on against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half in the Elite 8. Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images/AFP.

Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers will try to stop the NC State Wolfpack's Cinderella story in the Final Four, and we're looking at our NC State vs. Purdue prediction and expert pick based on the top Final Four odds.

The Final Four of the men's bracket kicks off with a clash between the No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers and the No. 11 NC State Wolfpack, with our best sports betting sites making Purdue a 9-point favorite (-110) in a game scheduled to begin at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

With Zach Edey leading the charge as the favorite by both the March Madness MVP odds and Wooden Award odds, Purdue aims to halt the Wolfpack's remarkable run. The undeniable presence of Edey, a formidable force in the paint, is set to propel Purdue on a collision course with UConn, the March Madness odds favorite.

Along with our Alabama vs. UConn prediction and other men's Final Four expert picks, here is our best NC State vs. Purdue prediction and expert pick (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

For more on this game, check out our NC State vs. Purdue player props.

NC State (11) vs. Purdue (1) game info

  • When: Saturday, April 6
  • Tip-off: 6:09 p.m. ET
  • Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Favorite: Purdue -9 (-110 via DraftKings)

NC State vs. Purdue odds

NC State vs. Purdue prediction

Zach Edey Over 40.5 points+rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel

After winning the Wooden Award last season, the 7-foot-4 Edey returned for another year at Purdue in hopes of rewriting last year's story when the Boilermakers fell to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The script has gone perfectly for the Canadian this year, as he's the favorite by the Wooden Award odds and has Purdue surging through March Madness.

Nobody has been able to stop Edey through the first four rounds of the tournament and it doesn't look like NC State will be the team to slow him down either. This March Madness, Edey is averaging 30.0 points and 16.2 rebounds per game - he's also coming off a 40-point, 16-rebound game in the Elite Eight against No. 2 seed Tennessee.

While the Wolfpack's run through the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament has been exhilarating, no team seeded worse than No. 8 has ever made the championship game. Not only is history working against NC State, but Kevin Keatts's squad has to try and slow one of the most dominant big men in college basketball history. The Wolfpack don't have a player taller than 6-foot-10 and this is a defense that's 44th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.

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Not only will NC State have trouble stopping Edey from scoring in the paint, but it'll also have issues with the whistle. This is a foul-prone team taking on the NCAA leader in free throw attempts per game (11.5)—the Wolfpack put opponents on the charity stripe at the second highest rate per game in the ACC this season (19.5).

That's why the -113 odds at FanDuel are a great value and we'd take this prop as short as -120. According to our odds calculator, these odds imply a 53.05% probability that Edey hits the Over with a $10 wager, resulting in a $8.85 profit.

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NC State vs. Purdue spread & Over/Under analysis

The Boilermakers opened as a 9.5-point favorite against NC State after the Wolfpack defeated Duke 76-64 in the Elite Eight. While there's been minimal movement at our best sports betting apps, we wouldn't be surprised to see Purdue as a double-digit favorite by tip. The Boilermakers are 20-15-2 ATS, while NC State is 20-19-1.

Between Edey and D.J. Burns Jr.'s spectacular play, the Over/Under opened as high as 146 and has remained there. By the time these two programs clash, the Over/Under could be as high as 147.5, with both these teams consistently hitting the Over—Purdue is 23-14, and NC State is 23-16-1.

NC State-Purdue prediction made Thursday at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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