NC State vs. Purdue Player Props & Prediction: Edey, Burns Clash in Final Four
DJ Burns and the NC State Wolfpack face off against Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers in the Final Four of the 2024 NCAA Tournament on Saturday, as we offer our best NC State vs. Purdue player props based on the top Final Four odds.
March Madness has delivered a remarkable twist as the No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack (26-14) secured a spot in the Final Four, propelled by DJ Burns' standout performance. Their journey sets the stage for a thrilling showdown against Zach Edey and the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers (33-4) in the second semifinal game on Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET, airing on TBS from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Heading into the matchup, Purdue emerged as the clear favorite, boasting a 9-point advantage across our best sports betting sites over NC State. Despite being counted out as underdogs, the Wolfpack have defied expectations, clinching victories in four consecutive games as an underdog and marking their deepest tournament run since their championship win in 1983.
Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are determined to keep their March Madness dreams alive as they aim to secure their first Final Four victory since 1980.
Along with our NC State vs. Purdue prediction and other men's Final Four expert picks, here are our best NC State vs. Purdue player props (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NC State vs. Purdue player props
DJ Burns Under 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM
I highlighted this bet as my top play in our Final Four expert picks, and the odds have since moved slightly toward the Under. I'd still play it at these -110 odds, which are a clear market outlier in the hours ahead of Saturday's game.
As I laid out in the piece above - I'd recommend checking that out for the full analysis - Burns has used his size advantage to bully opponents down low, but he'll be at a distinct disadvantage against Edey (7-4, 300 lbs) in the paint on Saturday. He's also at an elevated risk of foul trouble against the Boilermakers, which has already been an issue for the Wolfpack center.
Consider, too, that Burns has scored 15 points five of his last six games but just two of his previous seven games and only 15 of 40 games this season. With arguably his toughest matchup of the season on deck, I love the Under here.
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Zach Edey Over 41.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel
I'm ripping this bet off from my esteemed fellow college basketball expert, Rob Paul, who highlighted why this is such a good bet in his preview of this game. I highly recommend checking that out for his full analysis.
That said, it doesn't take a peer-reviewed thesis to see why there's value in this number on Edey, who is averaging 30 points and 16.3 rebounds in this year's NCAA Tournament after dropping 40 points and 16 boards in the Elite Eight. That came against a Tennessee defense that still ranks third in adjusted efficiency even after the loss.
Meanwhile, NC State ranks 44th on defense and has struggled to defend inside, protect the glass, or prevent opponents from reaching the charity stripe. All of those weaknesses are fatal flaws against Edey, who is primed for a monster day on Saturday.
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Zach Edey to be leading scorer ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -210 via FanDuel
I'm less bullish on this play than I am with the other two, but with Edey dealing as short as -275 to lead all scorers at DraftKings, I really don't mind this price.
As stated above, Edey has been on a tear in this tournament, averaging 30 points on a ridiculous 65.6% shooting on 16 attempts per game. Unsurprisingly, he's been the leading scorer in all four of Purdue's games of March Madness, and he's the clear favorite to do so again for a reason.
The biggest threat here is Burns or NC State guard DJ Horne, but I suspect both will have issues scoring with Edey patrolling the paint. This prop carries an implied probability of 67.7%, which doesn't feel high enough for this particular wager.
NC State (11) vs. Purdue (1) game info
- When: Saturday, April 6
- Tip-off: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: Purdue -9 (-110 via DraftKings)
NC State vs. Purdue odds
NC State-Purdue player props made Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET.
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