Underdog NBA Picks Tonight: Best Player Picks & Pick ‘Em Predictions for March 3

The NBA has divided itself into contenders and pretenders with the playoffs fast approaching, which opens up value for us to play with on the Underdog Fantasy board.

Our best Underdog NBA picks tonight feature five plays from across this evening's seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET, including a five-star pick for Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey.

💰 Best Underdog NBA Pick ‘Em predictions tonight

🎯 Tyrese Maxey Lower than 28.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 DeMar DeRozan Higher than 21.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Jalen Duren Higher than 24.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Kelly Oubre Jr. Higher than 23.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Trae Young Higher than 36.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐

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🏆 Tonight's best Underdog NBA picks

🎯 Tyrese Maxey ⬇️ 28.5 points

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the best-kept secrets of the NBA this season. Sure, they’re not competing for anything right now, but Toumani Camara is playing like he should be considered a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year odds contender. He’ll likely spend plenty of time covering Maxey tonight, which is bad news for Philadelphia’s point guard.

Over the last 15 games, the Trail Blazers have allowed the fifth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards at 22.7—despite playing at the NBA’s fastest pace since the All-Star Break. Although Maxey has the talent to explode for high-scoring games, the projection of 28.5 feels too high in this matchup. Maxey is averaging only 16.7 points per game through his last six appearances.

🎯 DeMar DeRozan ⬆️ 21.5 points

With Anthony Davis out and Luka Doncic traded away, the Dallas Mavericks are struggling to defend the paint. Since the All-Star Break, they have allowed the fourth-most points in the paint per game, at 55.2. With Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively all out, this situation seems unlikely to change anytime soon.

The trick is picking the right member of the Sacramento Kings to pop off. Domantas Sabonis is out, thrusting DeRozan and Zach LaVine into higher-usage roles. I trust DeRozan more at this projection since several of our best sports betting sites are projecting DeRozan for 22.5.

🎯 Jalen Duren ⬆️ 24.5 points + rebounds

The Detroit Pistons appear headed for a straight-up playoff spot, dodging the play-in tournament altogether, while the Utah Jazz are getting ready for a long offseason. With Utah’s pick-and-roll man defense ranked in the bottom quartile and Duren clocking in as a top-15% pick-and-roll man, big things could be in order for the young center. 

Duren has been averaging 13.9 points and 11.6 rebounds since Feb. 1, good for 25.5 points + rebounds, slightly higher than his projection for tonight’s contest. With the Jazz functionally eliminated from the playoff hunt, it’s fair to wonder how much resistance they’ll put up. Utah is allowing the ninth-most points in the paint per contest this year (50.5).

🎯 Kelly Oubre Jr. ⬆️ 23.5 points + rebounds

I may not be high on the 76ers tonight, but the Trail Blazers are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, and the Sixers are on the front end of one, too. Usually, this would mean lots of “lowers” from me, but we’re bucking the trend to trust in Kelly Oubre Jr—especially with Paul George on the injury report.

With Joel Embiid done for the year (and possibly longer), Oubre does a lot of the heavy lifting in Philadelphia. He is averaging 16.7 points and 6.3 rebounds without him this year, good for exactly 23, and those numbers have ticked up slightly to 17 and 6.7 (23.7) since Feb. 1. With Philadelphia’s season on life support, look for Oubre to stay on the floor even if we get into a mop-up situation.

🎯 Trae Young ⬆️ 36.5 points + assists

The Atlanta Hawks play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA right now, trailing only their opponent on Monday, the Memphis Grizzlies. When these teams last met in December, they tallied 240 points despite the absence of Trae Young. I expect the young star to show out this evening.

The last time Young saw the Grizzlies—two Decembers ago—he racked up 43 points and assists. Since Feb. 1, he has averaged a monstrous 39.9 points and assists per contest, making today’s projection of 36.5 seem pretty low. This projection should be higher.

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Choose 2-5 player picks and predict whether they’ll finish higher or lower than the projected total. If you hit on all of your picks in "Standard" (or less with "Flex"), you'll win.

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Unlike traditional DFS contests, Underdog NBA Pick ‘Em focuses solely on stat-based predictions and whether the player finishes with a higher or lower total.

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With a "Flex" entry, even if one pick is wrong, you can still win a reduced payout:

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