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Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks attempts a pass past Luguentz Dort (5) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) of the Oklahoma City Thunder, as we offer our best Thunder vs. Mavericks player props and expert picks for Monday's Game 4 in Dallas.
Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks attempts a pass past Luguentz Dort (5) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) of the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 at American Airlines Center on May 11, 2024 in Dallas. Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Mavericks host the Oklahoma City Thunder at American Airlines Center for Game 4, which tips off today at 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT. Here are our top Thunder vs. Mavericks player props based on the best NBA odds.

After the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) won Game 1 of this series in resounding fashion, the Dallas Mavericks (50-32) responded with two wins to take a 2-1 series. The Mavericks are 2-point favorites to beat the Thunder tonight in Game 4, according to our best sports betting sites, with tipoff set for 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

The Thunder were once among the favorites by the NBA championship odds but saw those odds dip after Saturday's 105-101 loss in Dallas. They'll need a better showing from All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while slowing down Mavericks star Luka Doncic, who remains among the favorites by the 2024 NBA Finals MVP odds.

To accompany our Celtics vs. Cavaliers player props, here are our best Thunder vs. Mavericks player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4 player props

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Thunder vs. Mavericks prop bet predictions for Monday

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There was once a Canadian guard making all kinds of electric plays in Dallas, and now Gilgeous-Alexander has a chance to do the same with the Thunder on the road for Game 4. An NBA MVP odds contender all season, SGA may have finished behind winner Nikola Jokic, but he received more votes than Doncic.

Now's his chance to show why, with Oklahoma City needing their star to be at his best to even the series. Gilgeous-Alexander has been taking advantage of Dallas' flimsy defense in through three games thus far. He's averaging 31 per game and has combined for 64 over his last two.

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With odds as short as -125 at our other best sports betting apps, there's a 55.56% probability this prop hits, according to our odds calculator. But our odds at FanDuel cash a $9.26 profit on a $10 bet.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel

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Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 blocks ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Watching Chet Holmgren swat away shots is like watching a father playing basketball in his driveway with his adolescent children. The size advantage is just so unfair that it's a wonder he doesn't block every shot. 

Holmgren's shot blocking prowess was on full display in Game 3 against the Mavericks with four rejections in the first half. He leads the NBA postseason in blocks with 2.9 per game and is averaging three against Dallas so far. In seven playoff games, he's topped 2.5 blocks four times after finishing fourth in the NBA with 2.3 blocks in the regular season. 

While these -135 odds are short, this same prop is as short as -149 at our other best books. Those odds imply a 59.88% probability Holmgren gets 3-plus blocks, but our odds pay $17.41 on a $10 bet.

Best odds: -135 via DraftKings

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Luka Doncic Under 29.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

It's clear Doncic isn't fully healthy and hasn't been since a knee injury in Game 3 of the Mavericks series against the Los Angeles Clippers. As a result, his 3-point shooting has looked more like mine after a few beverages on a summer's day; minimal elevation and as if he has blurred vision.

So while Doncic led the league in points per game this season (33.9), he's averaging just 23.3 against the Thunder and has only topped 29.5 points once in his last seven playoff games. Doncic's inconsistency from deep has been detrimental to his scoring.

He's shooting just 23-for-87 (26.4%) from beyond the arc in the playoffs and has shot 25% or worse in two of three games against the Thunder. These odds imply a 53.49% probability the Under hits, and a $10 bet would lead to a $8.70 profit if Doncic scores less than 30.

Best odds: -115 via bet365

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Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4 info & odds

  • When: Monday, May 13
  • Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas
  • How to watch: TNT
  • Favorite: Mavericks -2 (-110 via Caesars)

Thunder-Mavericks player props made Sunday at 11:45 a.m. ET.

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