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NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Jon Metler

Last Updated: March 24, 2023 3:37 PM EDT • 3 min 38 sec read.

Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Can Stephen Curry beat the NBA MVP frontrunner on Friday and more importantly give us a green check mark on his player prop? Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Friday's schedule using the best NBA odds.

Joel Embiid is the favorite to win his first NBA MVP award, but on Friday, the Philadelphia 76ers star will face a two-time winner of the award in Stephen Curry, and the Golden State Warriors sniper is the one we're looking to back with a straight bet.

Last week, we won 6.63 units on our NBA best bets and we have a 10-4 record for +6.24 units this week. It's time to finish the week strong and win more units than we did last week.

Here are our NBA best bets (odds via BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings, and bet365; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

  • Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics (-12)
  • San Antonio Spurs vs. Washington Wizards (-7)
  • Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors (-12.5)
  • Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzles (-13)
  • Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks (-13)
  • Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5) vs. Utah Jazz
  • Chicago Bulls (-2) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
  • Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors (-5)
  • Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings (-4.5)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-6)

Friday’s NBA best bets

  • Player Prop: Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points vs. 76ers (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Raptors -14.5 vs. Pistons (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Marcus Smart Over 5.5 assists vs. Pacers (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 points vs. Jazz (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Friday’s NBA player prop picks

Player Prop: Stephen Curry Over 26.5 points vs. 76ers (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's Friday at 6:30 a.m. and I think one of the sportsbooks is still sleeping with its Curry points prop against the 76ers. FanDuel has this prop trading with a total of 27.5, while BetMGM has chosen to use 26.5. 

As Curry is projected to score 28.7 points against the Sixers, the difference between 26.5 and 27.5 makes a significant difference in our expected value, especially considering the juice at BetMGM is -120. DraftKings also has the total set at 26.5 but with a much higher juice of -135. 

According to our projections of Curry scoring 28.7 points, this prop can be priced at -135 to go over the total, which is ironically the same price as DraftKings. Just hit the button and you'll have a bet with a 5% positive expected value in your account before you even eat breakfast.

Player prop: Marcus Smart Over 5.5 assists vs. Pacers (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

After dropping seven dimes against the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday and cashing a +250 bet for us, the legend Marcus Smart returns to the NBA best bets. Though it won't be as legendary as Tuesday's wager, it's still a plus-money bet.

I'd say DraftKings is running rogue here with a +105, but BetMGM offers the same price and BetRivers isn't far behind at +102. It's PointsBet and FanDuel that disagree with the pricing of this prop, as they're trading Smart at -110, and I agree with them.

Smart is projected to have 6.1 assists against the Pacers, so this prop should trade closer to -120. We can't let DraftKings or BetMGM get away with this price. It's not as bad as Smart's line from Tuesday, but it's still a mistake.

Player prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 points vs. Jazz (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This prop for Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on my radar since 6 a.m. when I was having my coffee. I knew it was time to get in on this prop before we missed our chance since DraftKings adjusted their line from Over 30.5 (-120) to Over 30.5 (-135).

Antetokounmpo is projected to score 33.2 points on Friday against the Jazz, so we can price the Over at -140. The bet is showing a positive expected value of 9% if you buy it at bet365 at -115.

If you don't have bet365, sign up or take your action to BetMGM, which is trading the Over 30.5 points at -120. That's still a +EV wager, and you're getting a better price than at DraftKings or Caesars.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA game picks

Spread: Raptors -14.5 vs. Pistons (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This spread was available at the Toronto Raptors -13.5 earlier this morning, but there's nothing in the numbers to indicate that -14.5 is a bad play, and we completely missed our window.

This matchup between the Raptors and Detroit Pistons has had steam going one way, and that's the Raptors side of the spread. Why are the Raptors steaming so hard? Aside from the Pistons being completely locked in on Victor Wembanyama at this point in the season, the projections suggest the Raptors should be favored by at least 16.5 points.

Using these projections, Raptors -14.5 can be priced at -130, yet we can buy it at -110 on FanDuel. All the sportsbooks are trading the Raptors at -14.5 (-110), so ideally you would like to wait until you catch maybe a rogue Raptors -14 somewhere, but I haven't seen anything from the market that indicates it will move in that direction.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.