Skip to main content
Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Would it be possible for the Phoenix Suns to win by just one point against the Los Angeles Lakers? Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Wednesday's schedule using the best NBA odds.

I might be the only person rooting for my spread bet on the Lakers to win by the hook on Wednesday night, but there's one big reason for this, and it involves a futures ticket on the Lakers missing the playoffs. 

Last week, we won 6.63 units on our NBA best bets and we have a 5-3 record for plus-3.07 units this week. 

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Wednesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

  • Denver Nuggets (-7) vs. Washington Wizards
  • Golden State Warriors (-2.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks
  • Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors (-9)
  • New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat (-2)
  • Atlanta Hawks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)
  • Houston Rockets vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-12.5)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bulls
  • San Antonio Spurs vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-17.5)
  • Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz (-4.5)
  • Phoenix Suns (-1) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Wednesday’s NBA best bets

  • Player Prop: Anthony Davis Over 25.5 points vs. Suns (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Nikola Jokic vs. Wizards (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player Prop: Damian Lillard Over 7.5 assists vs. Jazz (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Lakers +1.5 vs. Suns (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Wednesday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Anthony Davis Over 25.5 points vs. Suns (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My futures ticket on the Lakers missing the playoffs makes this a difficult bet to root for, as I would love to see the Suns win. Davis scoring 30 points and the Suns still winning (by one point) would be totally fine with me. 

BetMGM is running rogue here with its pricing, so it's only fair that you make them pay. Davis is trading with a total of 26.5 points and the juice at -125 via Caesars. At BetRivers, the total is 26.5 and the juice is -124. You can get a free point if you take BetMGM up on the Over at 25.5 (-125). 

It's projected that Davis will score 27.8 points against the Suns on Wednesday, way above his 25.5-point line. We can price the Over 25.5 points at -145 using this projection and the bet has a positive expected value of 6%.

Player prop: Nikola Jokic vs. Wizards (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don't close the BetMGM app after you place your Davis Over 25.5 points (-125) bet because I'll need you to hit Jokic Over 23.5 points (-125) too. 

Jokic is projected to score 25.8 points against the Washington Wizards, and you know he's getting antsy since Joel Embiid is the favorite for NBA MVP and the Nuggets have lost five of their last seven games. 

We can price the Over 23.5 points at -145 with Jokic projected to score 25.8 points and you're able to buy it at BetMGM for -125. In case this isn't enough, Caesars is trading Jokic's points total at 24.5 (-133). It's one point higher and has more juice for the Over than what we're seeing at BetMGM. 

Player prop: Damian Lillard Over 7.5 assists vs. Jazz (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I almost missed the opportunity to catch DraftKings on its pricing for Lillard's assist prop while I was writing about BetMGM's failure to pay attention to Davis and Jokic. DraftKings has opted to trade Lillard for a plus-money price of +100 for Over 7.5 assists, which is inaccurate.

We can price this prop at -130 since Lillard is projected to have 8.2 assists against the Jazz. We're not the only ones who think this price should be different on Lillard. PointsBet and BetRivers have the Over 7.5 juiced to -120 and -121, respectively.

Unless our projections are incorrect and the trading teams at PointsBet and BetRivers are also incorrect, DraftKings' +100 offer is an excellent price on the Over for Lillard's prop.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA game picks

Spread: Lakers +1.5 vs. Suns (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I talked about a futures bet on the Lakers missing the playoffs under the Davis prop, and this hurts it. My ideal scenario is the Suns winning by one point. Where are Maxi Kleber and the Dallas Mavericks when you need them? 

It's not my intention to fade the Lakers simply because I want them to lose for my futures ticket. The math suggests that the Lakers +1.5 (-115) is a solid bet, so I'm taking it every day of the week. 

The Lakers are projected to win by 2.5 points, which means they're worth -137 to us, but we have the ability to buy them at -115. The edge we receive from BetMGM on this price is further amplified when you consider Caesars trading the Lakers as a pick 'em with juice of -115. 

NBA best bets made 03/22/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages