Underdog NBA Picks Today: Tonight's Best Player Picks & Pick ‘Em Predictions for April 4
Our best Underdog NBA picks today focus on tonight's stacked slate in the Association, with recommended picks for Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic and Los Angeles Lakers superstar Luka Doncic.
We’re getting close to the postseason, so when you’re making your NBA predictions, consider the situation each team - and their players - find themselves in. Teams like the Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors are only worried about the NBA draft lottery, while others, like the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers Lakers, have seeding at the front of their minds.
💰 Best NBA picks & Underdog Pick ‘Em predictions
🎯 Nikola Vucevic Lower than 26.5 Points + Rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Jakob Poeltl Lower than 13.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Alperen Sengun Lower than 19.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Luka Doncic Lower than 28.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🎯 Pascal Siakam Higher than 20.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐
🏆 Tonight's best NBA player picks
🎯 Nikola Vucevic ⬇️ 26.5 Points + Rebounds
The Portland Trail Blazers might be the NBA’s most underrated defense. Led by rising star Toumani Camara, Portland ranks seventh in defensive rating since the All-Star break (111.7). The Blazers are also third in rebound rate (51.6%) over that sample. Both of these factors create major problems for Vucevic.
Vucevic faces an uncertain future in Chicago with DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine being sent to Sacramento. Since the break, the Bulls have been using Vucevic for just 28.5 minutes per game, compared to 32.1 beforehand. While Underdog has adjusted the center’s projection downward, it’s higher than his average of 25.1 points and rebounds per contest after the break.
🎯 Jakob Poeltl ⬇️ 13.5 Points
The Toronto Raptors took a tough home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last night, and while Poeltl didn’t suit up, he now lines up against a stingy Detroit defense - assuming this pattern of playing in every other game for Toronto continues. While he is averaging 16.1 points per contest since the All-Star break, this is a tough defensive matchup.
Detroit ranks eighth in points allowed in the paint per game since the break (46.8) and seventh in points allowed per game to centers over the last 15 games (20.1). In three matchups with the Pistons this year, Poeltl blew up for 25 points in 35 minutes in November but then scored exactly eight in less playing time over their next meetings.
🎯 Alperen Sengun ⬇️ 19.5 Points
I’m a big fan of Sengun and the Houston Rockets, but they’re running into an excellent Oklahoma City Thunder team tonight. OKC leads the NBA in points allowed in the paint per contest since the All-Star break (42) by a full three-point margin. Sengun averages 13.2 points in the paint per game - 69.4% of his season average of 19 points per game.
In three meetings with the Thunder, Sengun has posted point totals of 11, 20, and 13 on dismal shooting splits of 36/25/73. Most of the time, I’m willing to blame such shaky showings on shooting variance, but Oklahoma City’s strong defense is the far likelier culprit for Sengun’s struggles. This projection is simply too high in this matchup.
🎯 Luka Doncic ⬇️ 28.5 Points
The Los Angeles Lakers are in the unenviable spot of playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back set with another game scheduled on Sunday to make it three in four days. They’ll have to be strategic with minutes tonight, especially since they’re massive favorites over New Orleans, but will be dogs to Oklahoma City in two days.
These factors point to value on the lower for Luka Doncic. He played 38 minutes and tallied 19 points in last night’s loss to Golden State. Either LeBron James or Doncic may sit, but I expect both to play, just for less time than we usually see.
🎯 Pascal Siakam ⬆️ 20.5 Points
We’ll wrap up with a higher for Siakam. I’m not in love with this pick - Indiana is a massive favorite for this game, so he may see little playing time down the stretch - but Utah’s defense is just so awful down low that I’ve got to put it on the card.
Utah ranks 29th in points allowed in the paint per game since the break (55.5) while Siakam leads the Pacers in such points (10.5). More than half of Siakam’s points per game (20.3) have been scored in the paint, so if anyone goes off early to cement Indiana’s big lead, it should be him.
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