Top NBA Parlay Picks for Sunday: Targeting Player Props

With three of Sunday’s six late games featuring spreads wider than 10 points, we have pivoted away from spread betting to pick an NBA parlay with odds of +460.

Oddsmakers across the market are projecting blowouts on Sunday, with only two of the late games projected to see margins of victory closer than five points. The Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, and Oklahoma City Thunder are all expected to get thoroughly demolished.

Betting on double-digit underdogs is usually a profitable enterprise, but it becomes much less savvy this late in the year. Portland, Oklahoma City, and Houston have no reason to compete in these games. In fact, they have an incentive to ensure their record is as bad as possible as the draft lottery approaches. That means we’re turning away from spreads and looking elsewhere for our NBA parlay.

Here are our top NBA parlay picks for Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday's NBA Parlay Picks

Jaxson Hayes Over 9.5 points (+100)?????Alperen Sengun Over 14.5 points (-115)????Golden State Warriors (-200) vs. Sacramento Kings????

SEE ALSO: Pelicans vs. Clippers Picks

NBA Parlay Predictions

Hayes Over 9.5 points (+100)

Jaxson Hayes looked great against the Los Angeles Clippers back in January. He played only 16 minutes but still managed to score 13 points. Since then, Hayes has entered the New Orleans Pelicans starting rotation, and he is averaging 26.6 minutes per game. That puts him in a great spot against Los Angeles tonight.

The Clippers have struggled against opposing bigs all season. They permit 24.5 points per game to opposing centers— tied for the fifth most in the association. While they rank around the league average against power forwards on the year, they have regressed over their last seven games. The Clippers have permitted opposing power forwards to score 26.4 points per game through that stretch, good for the third-most in the NBA.

Los Angeles’ wing-heavy roster lacks the size to compete with opposing big men like Hayes. Only two Clippers, Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac are traditional bigs. No one else on their roster is taller than 6'8. Unless the Clippers leave both centers on the court at the same time, the 6'11 Hayes should have a height advantage by default.

The juice for this prop sits at -106 over at FanDuel Sportsbook, so we’re getting a nice deal from DraftKings to boot.

Sengun Over 14.5 points (-115)

The Minnesota Timberwolves haven’t been as bad against opposing bigs as the Clippers. However, they have looked terrible lately. Minnesota has allowed 32.7 points per game to opposing centers in their last seven contests. That leads the NBA by a 2.5-point margin!

The Timberwolves’ struggles stem from their poor interior defense. Although they have allowed the 10th fewest points in the paint per game on the year, that number bottomed out in their last three contests. They allowed 55.3 points in the paint per game over their last three contests, which ranks fourth worst through that span. It would rank worst on the full season, too.

With Christian Wood shelved for the rest of the year, rookie Alperen Sengun has inherited the starting job at center. The books are giving Sengun a higher total than I would like tonight. But because I expect Minnesota’s defensive woes to continue, I’m alright with targeting him anyway.

Sengun scored 12 points in his first start after Wood got shut down. He recorded a whopping 27 in the game right before that one, and all but four of his shots came from further than five feet. Look for the 19-year-old big man to rack up another impressive point total tonight.

Warriors (-200)

This play stems from simple game theory. The Golden State Warriors have clinched a playoff berth but could fall to the fourth seed if they can’t close out the season. That would likely mean a first-round matchup against the Denver Nuggets, a team that almost swept Golden State this year. Finishing third would likely give Golden State a matchup against the fading Utah Jazz, a team that the Warriors almost swept this year.

In contrast, the Sacramento Kings have nothing left to play for. They technically haven’t been eliminated yet, but their front office has likely shelved Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox for the rest of the year. That’s a crystal clear signal that the Kings have no intention of attempting a late push for the play-in.

The Warriors don’t have an easy schedule on tap for the rest of the regular season. They’ll have to play the Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, and Pelicans to end the year, and all three of those teams will still be jockeying for the Western Conference’s final two seeds by that time. They’ll want to get a safe win here to ensure a higher seed come playoff time.

Combined Odds: Hayes Over 9.5 Points (+100) + Sengun Over 14.5 Points (-115) + Warriors ML (-200) = +460

Where to Bet on NBA Parlay Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NBA parlay picks made 4/3/2022 at 12:56 p.m. ET