Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction Tonight: Game 2 Odds & Expert Picks

Denver did a masterful job in stealing Game 1 on the road but we're backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to recover at home in tonight's Game 2.

Isaiah Sirois

Last updated: May 7, 2025 8:02 PM EDT • 4 min read

Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives to the basket. Photo by Alonzo Adams via Imagn Images

We expect an increasingly desperate performance from the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight against the Denver Nuggets, which we considered in our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction and NBA picks.

Game 2 from Paycom Center starts at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT).

💰 Nuggets vs. Thunder expert picks for Game 2

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✅ Against the spread pick: Thunder -10.5 (-112 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Thunder ML (-500 via Hard Rock) ⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 231 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

🔢 Nuggets vs. Thunder updated betting action

Updated betting info via BetMGM.

Thunder moved from -10.5 to -11.5 betting favorite
12% of bets and 36% of money on the Thunder
Total has increased from 229.5 to 230.5
41% of bets and 55% of money is on the Over

🏀 Game 2 prediction & best bet

🎯 Score prediction: Thunder 123, Nuggets 103

The Thunder ran Denver’s opening lineup off the floor in Game 1. Michael Porter Jr. couldn’t get anything going and shot 1-for-8 from the floor with a plus-minus of -15 in 24 minutes. The Nuggets moved away from him in favor of Russell Westbrook for their crunch-time lineup.

That adjustment worked out, and Aaron Gordon won Denver the game in improbable fashion. If you didn’t watch the final few possessions, you must:

Denver is unlikely to pull Porter Jr. from the starting five for Game 2, which means we’ll likely see another inefficient start from Denver. On average, he's posting a -1.1 plus-minus in the postseason. Denver’s bench players not named Westbrook - Peyton Watson (-7.8), Jalen Pickett (-8.2), and Julian Strawther (-5.8) - all inspire little confidence, too.

Expect OKC to bounce back

In the regular season, Oklahoma City led the NBA in luck-adjusted net rating (+12.2) while Denver ranked eighth (+4.4). Denver’s struggles largely stemmed from an impotent defense that ranked 20th (115.8), far behind the top-ranked Thunder (107.5). With Watson largely unplayable, Denver’s defense will rely increasingly on good luck, which Chet Holmgren was kind enough to gift them on Monday.

Everything came together perfectly for the Nuggets in Game 1. It won’t be so easy in Game 2. The Thunder had a bad shooting night, converting just 42% from the field (down from 48.2% in the regular season) and 34.9% from deep (down from 37.4%), and they should look much better against a questionable Denver defense in Game 2.

Add in the fact Game 3 is scheduled for Friday, giving both sides just one day off to prepare, and there’s a real chance the Nuggets could pull the plug early and embrace their newfound home-court advantage if things get out of hand through the first three quarters.

✅ Best bet: Thunder -10.5 (-112 via ESPNBET)

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📈 Nuggets vs. Thunder odds

Live updated odds from our best sports betting sites.

📊 Game 2 betting insights

Odds movement for tonight's game via BetMGM.

85% of spread bets are on Denver +11.5 after the Nuggets won Game 1 outright as a double-digit underdog
The betting public is confident that tonight's Game 2 goes Over 229.5, with the play receiving 64% of action

🪧 Game 2 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Spread: Nuggets +9 (-110) | Thunder -9 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets +345 | Thunder -455
Over/Under: Over 231 (-110) | Under 231 (-110)

🚑 Nuggets vs. Thunder injury report

Follow the official NBA injury report for more injury news.

📡 How to watch Nuggets vs. Thunder live (Game 2)

📅 Wednesday, May 7
🕗 9:30 p.m. ET
📍 Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
📺 TNT/truTV | 🛜 Max

💡 More NBA expert picks

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Written By:
Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at Sportsbook Review specializing in basketball, motorsports, and football. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you can always find his columns stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA, Olympic, and FIBA markets for Sportsbook Review and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar most weekends. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Emory University and is currently attending Vanderbilt Law School.