Mavericks vs. Suns Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Phoenix Stay Hot at Home?

After splitting their first two meetings of the season, the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns both look to find an edge in the season series — and in the Western Conference standings, as well. Read on for our Mavericks vs. Suns NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Mavericks (25-24) and Suns (25-24) are two typical juggernauts who enter Thursday’s matchup at the Footprint Center with identical records, more on the periphery of the Western Conference conversation than either side is accustomed to. 

Here is our best Mavericks vs. Suns NBA pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Mavericks vs. Suns Game Info

Date: Wednesday, Jan. 26, 2023, 10 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds

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Mavericks vs. Suns Odds Analysis

Phoenix opened as a 1.5-point favorite and currently sits between -1 and -1.5 across our affiliated sportsbooks. At the time of this writing, 63% of point spread wagers in this matchup have been placed on the Suns.

The total opened at 221.5 and has dipped slightly to 220.5 at our recommended sportsbooks. Despite this downward movement for the number, we’ve seen 64% of total bets come in on the Over.

Mavericks vs. Suns Pick

Suns -1 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Mavericks ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dallas is tied for the worst road cover rate in the NBA this season, going an awful 7-16 ATS in away games. That’s a factor as the Mavs head into Phoenix to take on a Suns group that has covered the spread 60% of the time at home this season (15-10 ATS). 

The two sides have split the season series to this point, with Phoenix claiming its home game, 107-105, back in October.

Dallas has been a stout defensive team in recent years but it has fallen behind in the current campaign. Though the Mavs rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense (112.5 ppg), they slot in at 24th in the league in defensive efficiency. Dallas has particularly struggled defensively as the away team, allowing 6.9 more points per game on the road than it does at home.

The Suns haven’t played elite offensive basketball, but their scoring upticks slightly at home. A ninth-ranked defensive efficiency should come in handy against a Mavs team that ranks 22nd in the NBA in points per road game.

The Suns have won four straight on this home stand, while the Mavs head out on the road after a couple of home losses. In what could be another low-scoring affair like we saw between these sides in October, the Suns are simply better positioned to come away with a win.

Mavericks vs. Suns Best Odds

FanDuel, Caesars, PointsBet (-105)

DraftKings and BetMGM both list the line as Suns -1.5, a less favorable number than what you’ll get at FanDuel, Caesars or PointsBet. The benefit to playing at DraftKings or BetMGM would be the improved odds from -110 to -105, but I don’t consider that modest gain to be worthwhile in what projects to be a close matchup.

That means my preference is the Suns -1 line found at FanDuel, Caesars and PointsBet. If you want to stick with a moneyline bet, DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars are the best options for Suns backers, as those locations offer Phoenix ML at -115 odds. If the number should push to Suns -2.5, this recommendation would decrease to a three-star play.

Mavericks-Suns pick made 01/26/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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