Best Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, NBA Player Props & Score Predictions: Best Bets for Tonight

We have a potential beatdown on tap in Cleveland, as the juggernaut Cavaliers take on the Miami Heat. We have props for Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, as well as a spread prediction.

Andrew Brennan

Last updated: March 5, 2025 3:29 PM EST • 6 min read

We're fading Adebayo in our Heat vs. Cavaliers prediction. — Pictured: Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo shoots around Washington Wizards forward Alex Sarr. Photo by Rhona Wise via Imagn Images.

A lopsided matchup could be brewing tonight as the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Miami Heat at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Our Heat vs. Cavaliers prediction and player props expect another dominant showing from Cleveland tonight, which won the last meeting by 20 points. While Miami should put up more of a fight this time, the Cavs remain heavy favorites as they chase their 12th straight win.

With Cleveland among the NBA championship odds leaders, tonight's game presents another opportunity for them to flex their strength against an inconsistent Heat squad.

📈 Heat vs. Cavaliers odds movement

The Cavaliers opened as an 11-point home favorite against the Heat with most books now offering Cleveland -12.5 as tip approaches tonight. Given Kenny Atkinson's teams dominant play as of late, 67% of the public is backing Cleveland to cover the spread against this inconsistent Miami team.

💰 Best Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions & NBA player props tonight: March 5

Here are my best Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions and player props for tonight's NBA matchup with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.

Game pick: Heat to cover +12 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Davion Mitchell player prop pick: Over 8.5 points (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tyler Herro player prop pick: Under 6.5 assists (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Bam Adebayo player prop pick: Under 19.5 points (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Heat vs. Cavaliers pick & odds: Who will win tonight's NBA matchup?

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Cavaliers are favored by 11.5 points at the majority of our best NBA betting sites to beat the Heat in tonight's NBA matchup at 7 p.m. ET from Rocket Arena in Cleveland. I predict the Cavaliers (-12) will beat the Heat but not cover the spread.

🔢 Heat vs. Cavaliers odds & betting lines

Here are the latest Heat vs. Cavaliers odds and betting lines from our best live betting sites.

🎯 Heat vs. Cavaliers score prediction: Cavaliers 114, Heat 104

I'll start by looking at this game's total, which sits at 222 or 222.5. That's fallen dramatically from an opening number of 227, so we'll predict additional movement and land on a total of 218. From there, we need to handicap the spread.

I do think the Cavaliers will win comfortably, but they won't cover the 12 points available at bet365. Therefore, I predict Cleveland will beat Miami by a final score of Cavaliers 114, Heat 104.

Best bet: Heat +12 (-110 via bet365)

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💰 Best Heat vs. Cavaliers player prop bet odds & expert picks: Tonight

Here are my best Heat vs. Cavaliers player prop bet odds and expert picks for tonight's NBA matchup. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

🏀 Best Davion Mitchell prop pick: Over 8.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +100 via DraftKings ($10 to win $10)

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Mitchell is listed as questionable for tonight's game with a quad injury, but if he suits up, he should provide the Heat with a spark after scoring at a decent clip the last three games. Mitchell has gone Over this total in three straight games, and I expect him to do so again against the Cavaliers.

This total feels a bit low for a player averaging 10.1 points per game since joining the Heat, and his projection reflects that. Mitchell is projected to score 9.9 points tonight, so we're getting good value on this Over. This prop should be trading closer to -135 for those wondering the break-even price, so we'll gladly take these even-money odds.

Now, if you're a Heat fan, I'd look away for these next two player props, because it's only downhill from here.

📊 Best Davion Mitchell prop bet odds

🏀 Best Tyler Herro prop pick: Under 6.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -135 via BetMGM ($10 to win $7.41)

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With the Heat dealing with multiple injuries to starters, I think we see less of Herro the facilitator and more of Herro the volume shooter. Additionally, if the Heat do get blown out, there's the risk that Herro sits for much of the fourth quarter.

That's likely why he's projected for just 5.3 assists tonight, and we're getting around 23% +EV on this bet as a result. If you're wondering what that means, it's basically just that this price is far longer than it "should" be based on that projection. In fact, you could play Under 6.5 assists as short as -150 and still be getting great value on this prop.

If this drops to 5.5, I'd still play the Under at plus-money, but I likely wouldn't bet on anything at -105 or shorter.

📊 Best Tyler Herro prop bet odds

🏀 Best Bam Adebayo prop pick: Under 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings ($10 to win $8.70)

We finish with another Under on one of Miami's stars, and it's for many of the same reasons. Adebayo could see his minutes somewhat limited if the Cavaliers are up big in the second half, and that would, of course, result in fewer chances to score.

As a result, Bam is projected for just 17.8 points tonight in Cleveland. We're getting roughly 18% +EV on this bet based on that projection, as the break-even price is -168. Therefore, I'd play this as short as the -130 available at ESPN BET, but I likely wouldn't go beyond that point. If this drops to 18.5, you could still play the Under, but it'd have to be at plus money.

📊 Best Bam Adebayo prop bet odds

🚑 Heat vs. Cavaliers injuries

Here are the latest injuries for tonight's Heat vs. Cavaliers matchup, which will update in real time.

📺 How to watch Heat vs. Cavaliers tonight

📅 Date: Wednesday, March 5
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Rocket Arena (Cleveland)
📺 TV: ESPN
💻 Streaming: Fubo

❓ Heat vs. Cavaliers FAQs

Who is favored to win Heat vs. Cavaliers?

The Cavaliers are as short as -625 on the money against the Heat, odds which come with an 86.21% implied probability that they'll win.

What are the odds for Heat vs. Cavaliers?

The Cavaliers serve as either -11.5 or -12 favorites, and the total sits at 222.

What time is Heat vs. Cavaliers tonight?

The Heat vs. Cavaliers game will begin around 7 p.m. ET.

How to watch Heat vs. Cavaliers

You can watch the Heat vs. Cavaliers game on ESPN or stream on Fubo (depending on location).

🏀 Best NBA betting sites

Looking to bet on the NBA tonight? Here are our best NBA betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos available for tonight's NBA games.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.