Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Cleveland Take Care of Business at Home?

The Miami Heat travel to face the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday Read on for our Heat vs. Cavaliers NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

It might be only January, but Tuesday's meeting could have Eastern Conference seeding implications. The Heat (28-23), who made the conference finals a year ago, are the No. 6 seed.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers (31-21) are one spot above them in the standings on the final day before February. 

Here is our best Heat vs. Cavaliers NBA pick (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Heat vs. Cavaliers game info

Date: Tuesday, Jan. 31, 7 p.m ET
TV: NBA League Pass
Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH

Heat vs. Cavaliers odds

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Heat vs. Cavaliers odds analysis

The Cavaliers opened as 4-point favorites and are now laying 4 or 4.5 across the board as of Tuesday morning. The total opened as just 213 but has actually fallen to a range of 210.5 and 211 depending on the sportsbook.

Entering this matchup, the Cavaliers are 26-23-3 against the spread and 24-28 to the Over. The Heat are 20-29-2 ATS and 23-28 to the Over as well.

Heat vs. Cavaliers pick

Cavaliers -4 vs. Heat (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

This spread touched as high as 5.5 before settling in at 4 or 4.5 after it was announced Jimmy Butler is expected to play, which gives us the opportunity to pounce on the home team. My numbers project a 106.5-99 win for the Cavs, so there is enough of an edge there to lay the points for this three-star bet. It also favors the Under for those wishing to do so on the lowest total of the night.

Donovan Mitchell might be on a minutes restriction in Tuesday’s matchup, as he played about a dozen minutes in the first half during his return on Sunday. The Cavs rolled to a 122-99 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers and didn’t need much from him in his return.

Cleveland is 26-23-3 ATS, which marks the 10th-best cover rate in the NBA. The Cavaliers are 17-8-1 ATS at home, including a 16-8-1 cover clip when laying points at home. Not only do my numbers project value in this spread - as do the trends - but I like the idea of backing the home team in a game featuring two similar squads.

Both the Heat and Cavaliers play at two of the three slowest paces in the league, which is why this total is so low. Cleveland secured a 113-87 home win over Miami on Nov. 20, covering the spread as a 7-point favorite and having the total finish Under 212.5 by 12.5 points. We expect a similar outcome in Tuesday's meeting.

Heat vs. Cavaliers best odds

Caesars (-110)

You can get the best number on the home team at both DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars, so that’s where we would recommend shopping at this time. 

If the number swings back toward the Cavs, we wouldn’t lay anything longer than a 4.5-point spread. This is the NBA after all, and there could be better opportunities to bet on Cleveland during the game if you miss the window.

Heat-Cavaliers pick made 1/31/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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