Heat vs. 76ers Game 6 NBA Picks: Can Philly Bounce Back at Home?

The Miami Heat are looking to avoid a Game 7 and take out the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday. Read on for our Heat-76ers Game 6 picks and predictions.

The 76ers have battled adversity with Joel Embiid missing time due to injury throughout the playoffs. Now after the team has won two of the last three games in this series with its star back, there's still an opportunity to force a Game 7.

Read on for our Heat-76ers picks and predictions for Thursday’s Game 6 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. 76ers Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, May 12, 7:00 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

Heat vs. 76ers Odds Analysis

The 76ers opened as 2.5-point favorites before seeing that number dip slightly to Sixers -2 at DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks. The public believes the Heat are ready to close out this series, as 62% of the money and 65% of the ticket count sides with Miami. The Heat are 52-39-1 against the spread this season, a top-five cover rate in the league. The Sixers check in at 44-48-1 against the spread.

Meanwhile, the total hasn't moved from its opening mark of 207. Three of the five games so far in the series have gone Under this number, with defense the hallmark for both sides. While only 38% of the tickets are on the Over, that side is still receiving 59% of the cash due to betting trends tied to the sharps.

Games involving the Heat are 50-41-1 to the Over in 2021-22. Sixers contests have gone 43-48-2 toward the Over.

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Heat vs. 76ers Picks

76ers -2 (-105) ????Over 207 (-110) ???Joel Embiid Over 25.5 points (-110) ????

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Heat vs. 76ers Predictions

76ers -2 (-105)

The Heat did a tremendous job of limiting Embiid and Philadelphia's offense in Game 5. It was the first time in the series with Embiid playing when Philly failed to dictate the flow of the game. The Heat's third-ranked scoring defense throughout the season was on full display.

But as the series shifts back to Philly with the Sixers needing to win, we'll surely see a significant response from a talented team.

The tone of the series had been in Philadelphia’s favor when Embiid returned for Game 3, as the Sixers rattled off a few straight wins. Whether that was the impact of the league’s leading scorer returning or a product of home-court advantage is hard to discern. But no home team has lost in the series. The Sixers have played substantially better overall when at home.

We also haven’t seen a tight finish yet in this series, with an eight-point margin of victory for Philly in Game 4 the closest contest. Those trends should remain intact Thursday as the Sixers find a way to extend the series, and they'll do so without sweating out a close game.

Over 207 (-110)

Game 5 finished with 205 points scored, with the Sixers mustering just 85. Now they should come out with more offensive intensity while facing elimination.

The Sixers have adapted to the pace of the game to win with relative ease during both of their home contests in the series. The totals for those affairs varied drastically though, with the Sixers winning a 20-point blowout in Game 3 despite scoring only 99 points. There was no opportunity for the Over to cash during that kind of game, as the Heat's scoring was so severely limited.

Game 6 will be similar to Game 4, and the Heat will keep pace with the scoring. They lost 116-108 in Game 4, and although that might be a bit lofty for a Game 6 expectation, the Heat will continue to enjoy some of the offensive success they experienced during a 120-point performance at home in Game 5.

Both sides will be engaged enough offensively for the Over to hit on this low number.

https://twitter.com/johnewing/status/1524773644093870086

Embiid Over 25.5 points (-110)

This number is simply one Embiid will need to clear for the Sixers to be successful in Game 6. He's been limited below it in each game of the series, with the Heat forcing Philly to spread the ball around.

But the 76ers will surely revert back to their bread and butter with the season on the line, with James Harden distributing and finding open looks for "The Process," while Embiid logs a total close to the 30.6 points per game he averaged this past campaign.

It will take an extra-special effort to be successful against a Miami group locked in on stopping Embiid. But that’s the kind of player he needs to be to put a bug in the ears of MVP voters for next season.

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Heat-76ers picks made on 5/12/2022 at 12:19 p.m. ET.