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Suns vs. Mavericks Game 6 NBA Picks: Phoenix to Wrap Up Series in Dallas

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Suns vs. Mavericks Game 6 NBA Picks: Phoenix to Wrap Up Series in Dallas
Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns passes the ball around Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first half of Game Five of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs. Photo by Christian Petersen / Getty Images via AFP

The Phoenix Suns are a win away from returning to the NBA’s Western Conference Finals. The Dallas Mavericks face elimination at home in Game 6 on Thursday night. Find out where we lean in our Suns-Mavericks picks.

After getting embarrassed in Dallas in Games 3 and 4, the Suns returned home to make a statement on Tuesday. They demolished the Mavericks by 30 and regained command of the series, heading back to Dallas with a 3-2 lead.

The Mavericks were unable to find the shooting touch they had in Game 4, as they shot under 40% from the field and struggled to make any sort of impact on the offensive end. They’ll do their best to extend the series here.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s NBA matchup between the Suns and Mavericks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, WynnBet; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Suns vs. Mavericks Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, May 12, 9:30 p.m. ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Suns vs. Mavericks Odds Analysis

The Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites and, as of this writing, that number is still available on BetMGM. Most books are hanging two points at this point with BetRivers even moving the line to 2.5 points. The best price on the Suns moneyline is at FanDuel, while PointsBet offers the best odds on Dallas to win.

In terms of the total, we're seeing uniform moves towards the Under. It was initially offered at 213 points but now stands at least at 212.5 points, with DraftKings and FanDuel moving to 212 points. It could reach 210 before tip.

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Suns vs. Mavericks Picks

  • Suns (-126 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
  • Under 212.5 (-108 via WynnBet) ★★★
  • Chris Paul Over 4.5 rebounds (-130 via DraftKings) ★★★★★


Suns vs. Mavericks Predictions

Suns (-126)

I don't want to relegate this handicap to just shooting, but it is hard not to. The Mavericks' Game 4 win in which they shot 45.5% from deep was an outlier in the larger sample of the last two playoffs. What we have seen over the last two games is a great example of who Dallas is.

When this team turns it on from three, it is impossible to beat. In Game 5, Dallas shot just 25% from deep and failed to muster up any sort of offense.

The Mavericks are simply inconsistent in this way. One never knows when the big shooting night is coming and when they will throw in a terrible night. What we do know is that they have yet to win the rebounding battle in any of the five games and, with the exception of Game 1, the Suns have been very consistent on defense. Phoenix is allowing under 117 points per 100 possessions in every game despite some great shooting.

Chris Paul's blunders in Games 3 and 4 helped Dallas win with or without great shooting, and it's unlikely we will see the Suns' point guard struggle for a fourth straight game. He has been too good for too long.

With that, it seems a bet on Dallas is a bet on luck. Will Paul throw in another clunker and will Dallas hit 40% or better from three? It's certainly possible, but it's a big roll of the dice.

Under 212.5 (-108)

Phoenix did an excellent job of running Dallas off the 3-point line and closing out on shooters in Game 5. Because of this, the Suns were able to post their best defensive rating of the playoffs to this point. As I noted above, the Suns have rarely slipped on that end of the floor, and I think they can help us get to the Under in a big way.

On top of this, the Suns and Mavericks have been playing some pretty slow basketball in this series. The pace rating has never gone north of 97, hitting 94 in each of the last two games and three times in this series.

The Under has now hit in the last three games between these two teams by some margin. I am still leaning on Under once again here despite the fact that the number continues to plummet.

Paul Over 4.5 rebounds (-130)

We're back! I stayed off of Paul's rebounding total in Game 5 due to extreme juice on the Over, and I'm pretty glad I did. He finished with just two boards in what was a pretty easy game for the Suns to win. As a result, he wasn't defending around the rim as much and didn't feel the need to help on the boards.

The main angle here is that the Mavericks are trying to increase their offensive output, so they've been running Maxi Kleber out as the small-ball five, leaving the glass exposed. I touched on it earlier, but the Mavericks have been badly out-rebounded in every game. That's why attacking Suns rebounding props has been so profitable.

Paul had gone Over this number in six straight playoff games prior to the last time out, and I think in a close game he'll be right back to grabbing rebounds.

Where to Bet on Suns-Mavericks Picks

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Suns-Mavericks picks made 5/12/2022 at 2:38 a.m. ET.