🏀 Cooper Flagg Rookie of the Year Odds: Mavericks Star Reclaims Lead Over Kon Knueppel
📡 SBR Edge: Flagg Undervalued in ROTY Odds
I break down the Cooper Flagg Rookie of the Year odds ahead of the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Phoenix Suns tonight, with tipoff set for 10 p.m. ET. In addition to the live ROTY odds, I offer my best prediction and compare Flagg’s stats against his only realistic threat to win the award - Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel.
🏆 Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year? Live ROTY probability
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Flagg is a 61% favorite in the market, though as recently as April 4, Kon Knueppel was ahead of him with a 72% win expectancy.
The Mavericks forward was a 61% favorite when the market opened, with Knueppel debuting as a 3% underdog on July 21. After more than $5.8 million has been traded in the market, Flagg is on pace to close as the more likely player to take home the award.
My prediction: Cooper Flagg | Yes (61¢)
Despite Knueppel being the better 3-point shooter, Flagg is the more dangerous all-around scorer, as evidenced by his back-to-back games with 45 or more points from April 3–5. Knueppel has had better team success, but since when has that been a major factor for Rookie of the Year voters?
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📊 NBA Rookie of the Year win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Player | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 61% | 68% | ↓ 7% |
| Kon Knueppel | 39% | 3% | ↑ 36% |
🔢 NBA rookie stats 2026: Flagg vs. Knueppel
Updated: April 8, 2026
| Player | Team | PPG | 3PM | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | DAL | 21.2 | 69 | 29.7% |
| Kon Knueppel | CHA | 18.7 | 268 | 42.9% |
While Flagg averages more points per game, Knueppel has made nearly four times as many 3-pointers as the Mavericks forward. The Hornets guard is also shooting more than 13 percentage points higher from beyond the arc than Flagg.
Note: On Feb. 26, Knueppel officially broke the NBA rookie record for 3-pointers in a single season (209), surpassing Keegan Murray's previous mark of 206 in just 59 games.
📜 NBA Rookie of the Year odds history
Odds via Covers' Sports Odds History.
| Year | Name | Team | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Stephon Castle | Spurs | +1200 |
| 2023-24 | Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | -145 |
| 2022-23 | Paolo Banchero | Magic | +200 |
| 2021-22 | Scottie Barnes | Raptors | +1100 |
| 2020-21 | LaMelo Ball | Hornets | +400 |
| 2019-20 | Ja Morant | Grizzlies | +250 |
| 2018-19 | Luka Doncic | Mavericks | +250 |
| 2017-18 | Ben Simmons | 76ers | +225 |
| 2016-17 | Malcolm Brogdon | Bucks | N/A |
| 2015-16 | Karl-Anthony Towns | Timberwolves | +450 |
If Knueppel wins NBA Rookie of the Year this season, his +3500 preseason NBA odds (or his 3% win expectancy on Kalshi on July 21) would make him the biggest underdog to claim the award in nearly a decade.
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.
For example, if you select Knueppel to win Rookie of the Year, it would, at current prices, be a “Yes” contract at 39 cents, which implies a 39% chance.
If he wins the award, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 61 cents per contract. If he loses, it settles at $0.
Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line.
Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.
Why should I wager on the NBA Rookie of the Year winner at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
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