Bucks vs. Celtics Game 1 NBA Picks: Boston The Favorites At Home

The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics each cruised through their first-round series, but which team will parlay that early success into a win in the conference semifinals? Read on for our Bucks-Celtics Game 1 picks and predictions.

Sunday’s Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will feature a clash of Eastern Conference powerhouses and a meeting between two of the best players in the NBA; Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum.

Giannis averaged a whopping 28.6 points, 13.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.4 blocks in his first-round series against the Chicago Bulls. He also averaged 28.3 points on 53.4% shooting in three meetings with the Celtics in the regular season. Milwaukee however will be without Khris Middleton, who averaged 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in the regular season and played a key role on both ends of the court. His presence will be sorely missed, but the Bucks went 10-9 without him in the regular season and playoffs.

Boston held Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in check in their first-round sweep, and the Celtics will need to keep that same defensive intensity in the semis to limit Giannis. The Celtics had the top-ranked defense in the NBA this season, and both teams ranked in the top-10 in offensive rating. They'll also have defensive specialist Robert Williams back, and he should be expected to play more than the 15 minutes he averaged over his last two contests.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup between the Bucks and Celtics (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bucks vs. Celtics Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, May 1, 1 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Bucks vs. Celtics Odds Analysis

The spread opened at Celtics -4.5, but it’s risen to as much as Celtics -5 on some sportsbooks. Both teams dominated in their first-round series, but 75% of the tickets and 85% of the cash are on the Bucks. All that action is still a hangover from the regular season where Boston was overlooked and underestimated. The spread might seem high at first glance, but the Celtics are in a good position to cover.

The point total is a bit of a head-scratcher. It opened at 218.5 and has come down to 217.5 on some sportsbooks. I’m shocked that just 66% of the tickets and 73% of the cash are on the Over.

Bucks vs. Celtics Picks

Celtics -5 (-106) ????Over 218 (-110) ?????Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 13.5 rebounds (-138) ?????

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Bucks vs. Celtics Predictions

Celtics -5 (-106)

The home team won in all four prior matchups this season by an average margin of around 7.5 points. That’s important to note, but we’re talking about the spread, not the Moneyline. Boston went 2-2 against the Bucks straight up but covered every game against Milwaukee this season. The Celtics had the best net rating since the All-Star break, second-best over the course of the entire season.

Neither team was particularly effective in their respective situations, as the Bucks went 4-9 against the spread as the road underdog this season, while Boston went 17-22-1 as the home favorite. Both have been successful in the playoffs, however, with Milwaukee going 3-2 and Boston 3-1.

Milwaukee covered in its last three against the Bulls to close out the first-round series with Middleton, but Chicago was undermanned and outmatched. The Celtics had the best net rating since the All-Star break, second-best over the course of the entire season. I’ll take the Celtics to cover at home in Game 1.

Over 218 (-110)

The majority of tickets and money have been placed on the Over, and it’s not hard to see why. When these teams met in the regular season, the total went Over in three of four contests. Three of those went Over 230 points, and the average score was 233.3.

The Bucks ranked third in offensive rating during the regular season, and the Celtics weren’t far behind at ninth. These are two of the best offenses in basketball, fueled by their respective superstar forwards. Boston has a second excellent scorer in Jaylen Brown, while Milwaukee utilizes a cast of shooters around Giannis to put up points.

Despite Boston’s top-ranked defense, there have been fireworks every time these teams have met. I’m not sure I’ll count on point totals in the 230s, but 218 is just too low not to hit. I’m taking the Over and not thinking twice.

Antetokounmpo Under 13.5 rebounds (-138)

We’re rolling with a rebounds prop that’s highly overinflated. Giannis averaged 13.4 boards against the Bulls in the first round and pulled down at least 16 rebounds three times. Those types of totals won’t be the norm against Boston.

The Celtics allowed just 34 rebounds per game in their first-round series against the Nets, the fewest rebounds allowed by any team in the playoffs so far. Conversely, the Bulls allowed the most rebounds per game in their first-round series at 51.8 per contest. Giannis had a tremendous series, but the matchup was the best available.

In his three regular-season matchups against Boston, Giannis averaged 10.3 boards and topped out at 12. The Greek Freak had another big season on the boards (11.6 per game), but he finished with at least 14 of them in just 21 of 67 regular-season contests. That’s less than a third of his games. Take advantage of this much-too-high rebound total.

Where to Bet on Bucks-Celtics Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Bucks-Celtics picks made 4/29/2022 at 2:04 p.m. ET.