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Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics drives to the basket against Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game 4 of the NBA playoffs. We're backing Tatum in our NBA Player Props & Expert Picks.
Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics drives to the basket against Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers during Game 4 of the NBA playoffs. Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images via AFP.

The NBA playoff slate is bursting with Wednesday excitement, with the Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks playing pivotal Game 5s, and we're offering our expert NBA player props and expert picks for Wednesday based on the best NBA odds.

On Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET, the Boston Celtics have an opportunity to close out their series against the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden in Boston. The Cavaliers, facing long odds as 14.5-point underdogs across our best sports betting sites, are up against the NBA championship odds-favorite Celtics. With Donovan Mitchell's status uncertain, the challenge becomes even tougher for the Cavs.

Later in the evening at 9:30 p.m. ET, from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, the Oklahoma City Thunder, led by NBA Finals MVP odds hopeful Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, aim to seize a 3-2 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks. The Thunder are favored by 4.5 points with home court advantage.

Along with our Cavaliers vs. Celtics player props and our Mavericks vs. Thunder player props, here are our NBA player props and expert picks for Wednesday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday's NBA expert picks

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Wednesday's NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via bet365)

NBA player props

Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

The Jayson Tatum haters are punching the air right now as he leads the Celtics into Game 5 against the Cavaliers. Following a slow start to the playoffs, the five-time All-Star has put up back-to-back 33-point performances against a banged-up Cleveland squad.

After averaging just 15.4 field goals in the first round against the Miami Heat, Tatum has embraced his role as the lead scorer and taken 25 shots in each of his last two games while going 18-for-18 from the free-throw line. I expect Tatum to continue taking on a bigger load.

But the reason I love this prop is this outlier price. This same prop is as short as -120 at our other best sports betting apps. Those odds imply a 54.64% probability the prop cashes, according to our odds calculator, but our price pays out $20 on a $10 bet.  

Best odds: +100 via DraftKings

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Evan Mobley Over 25.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

At this point, I'm not sure how Cleveland fans manage to get out of bed every morning. The Guardians are one of the MLB's biggest teases, the Browns are a perpetual dumpster fire who found out Joe Flacco is better than their "franchise" QB, and the Cavaliers finally look good post-LeBron but can't stay healthy. 

Heading into Game 5, Mitchell and Jarrett Allen are both questionable, and neither suited up in Game 4. I like this prop even if they play, but I love it even more if they don't take the court. Evan Mobley has been the Cavs' second-most consistent threat in the playoffs.

He's averaging 18.5 points and 10 rebounds against the Celtics and has topped 25.5 combined in three of four games. The odds imply a 54.55% probability he hits the Over with a $10 bet leading to an $8.33 profit.

Best odds: -120 via bet365

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Luka Doncic Under 46.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐

A Dallas sports franchise that entered the season with sky-high hopes only to limp its way to the finish line and fall short of a championship? Jerry Jones can relate. But Luka Doncic literally is limping due to his sprained knee and sore ankle, and it's impacted his ability to score.

Though he did have a triple-double in Game 4 against the Thunder, Doncic's 3-point shooting has been a mess since injuring his knee against the Los Angeles Clippers. As a result, he's averaging just 40.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists against OKC and hasn't topped 46.5 in the series.

Without Doncic being able to score to boost his PRA, I prefer this prop to his point total, which has dropped to 27.5. These odds imply a 50% probability the Under hits with a $10 bet paying out $20.

Best odds: +100 via DraftKings

Jalen Williams Over 10.5 rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Every coach wants a player like Jalen Williams. He's a feisty defender, an efficient shooter, an energetic rebounder, and a willing passer. (His brother Cody is expected to be a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft for many of the same reasons.)

Even while Williams has been inconsistent as a scorer against Dallas, he's found other ways to be impactful, particularly with his rebounding and playmaking as of late. Williams is averaging a combined 14.5 rebounds and assists over his last two games and has topped 10.5 in six of eight playoff games.

With Williams averaging 6.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists for the playoffs, these -104 odds are great value. They imply a 50.98% probability he hits the Over with a $10 bet paying out $19.62.

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel

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NBA player props made Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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