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NBA Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Will Celtics Take Commanding Series Lead?

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: May 13, 2024 4:45 PM EDT • 4 min 17 sec read.

Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics gestures during the second quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and we offer our top NBA player props and expert picks based on the best NBA odds.
Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics gestures during the second quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images via AFP.

We're focusing our attention one of the two crucial Game 4s for our top NBA player props and expert picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets won Game 4 to level their second-round series on Sunday, and the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder have the chance to follow in their footsteps. 

While the Cavaliers have the advantage of playing in front of their fans at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Monday, the Boston Celtics are still significant 8.5-point favorites. Tip-off is expected at 7 p.m. ET.

The Celtics enter Game 4 as minus-money favorites by the NBA championship odds, while the Cavaliers are the biggest long shots on the board.

Meanwhile, Monday night's second game profiles as a more tightly contested affair, with the Dallas Mavericks serving as just 1.5-point favorites against the Thunder at home at American Airlines Center.

The Thunder and Mavericks are side by side in the NBA championship odds, and an Oklahoma City win could lead to these teams flipping on the oddsboard. Tip-off from Dallas is expected for 9:30 p.m. ET.

Here are our NBA player props and expert picks for Monday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). Don't miss our Thunder vs. Mavericks player props.

Monday’s NBA expert picks

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Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via Betway)

NBA player props

Derrick White Under 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Boston Celtics guard Derrick White took a leap this season, putting together arguably his best campaign in the NBA. He cranked it up a notch against the Miami Heat, averaging 22.4 points in the five games. 

However, White's stats have normalized against the Cavaliers, as he's averaging 15.7 points across the first three games, which is much more in line with his season mark.

Based on White's projections for Monday, we're getting roughly 15% positive expected value on this bet. These odds at DraftKings are slightly better than those at the rest of our best sports betting sites, which are hovering around -105.

For its part, Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - opened with White's points prop at 16.5, but the Under was immediately smashed. It then moved his total to 15.5 with the Under priced at -103. It's since moved to -124, showing us sharp money is still on our side.

See Rob Paul's Celtics vs. Cavaliers player props for more on Monday's opening game.

Best odds: -102 via DraftKings

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Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐

No one is going to accuse Jaylen Brown of being a facilitator, but he did average a career-high 3.6 assists per game this season. Much like White's scoring efforts, though, Brown's assists have dipped against the Cavaliers compared to what he managed against the Heat.

However, Brown went Over this total in Game 3, and he appears poised to do so again on Monday.

Based on Brown's projections, we're getting roughly 26.5% +EV through these -125 odds, available at both BetMGM and DraftKings. Comparatively, Caesars and FanDuel are hovering around -150 to back this Over, while Pinnacle is at -149 after opening at -118.

Best odds: -125 via BetMGM

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Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐

It feels rather risky to take Jayson Tatum's rebounds alt Under on Monday, considering he's gone Over this number in four of his last five games and almost all of our best sports betting apps have his total set at 10.5 for Game 4.

However, this is the higher EV play based on Tatum's rebound projection against the Cavaliers. We're getting roughly 25% +EV through these +118 odds at FanDuel, and we've seen sharp money back the Under 10.5 enough that we feel confident selling a rebound for more value.

Pinnacle opened Tatum's rebound Under at -115, but it's since moved to -167. Our other best sportsbooks also provide intriguing betting options with Under 10.5 priced around -110, but this is the best bet for those looking to maximize value.

Best odds: +118 via FanDuel

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Evan Mobley Under 10.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐

We stick with the Celtics vs. Cavaliers game for our fourth pick, but we're finally targeting a Cleveland player.

Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley managed a career-high 9.4 rebounds per game this season in his third year in the league, but this rebound total feels far too high on Monday.

Mobley averaged just 9.1 rebounds in the first round of the playoffs, which featured a scrappy series between the Cavaliers and Orlando Magic with plenty of missed shots.

He's really shown out against the Celtics, improving his play on all fronts. However, his rebound average is still only 10.3, nearly a full board below what he'd need to clear this total.

That's likely why Mobley's projections are showing us real value on the Under. Based on his projections, we're getting roughly 17% +EV on this bet. 

Pinnacle is at just -120 after opening at -102, but it's been as short as -141 at times. Therefore, it's safe to assume there's a point at which the Over has gotten too long for sharp bettors. However, that's not the case when the Under is priced at just -105, as it is here.

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings

NBA player props made Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He's been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He's probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.