NBA Best Bets, Odds Today: Matchups, Picks, Predictions for Friday
It’s a deep dish menu Friday and we’ll attack a chalky moneyline, an against the spread pick on a sharp line by the books, a total points side, my favorite underdog moneyline winner of the day, and a player prop bet to build the bankroll. Here are my NBA best bets for Friday.
The Boston Celtics keep winning and are on pace for the best offensive rating of all time. The Milwaukee Bucks are just half a game behind in second place but find themselves as underdogs on Friday. The Utah Jazz have their first losing streak of the season and now have to contend with the still-formidable Phoenix Suns.
On Friday, we have an 11-game slate in the NBA, with 21 teams having rest and possibly having more health on their side. Still, finding props to target and lines to attack early in the day requires some intricate work. Welcome back to the NBA Best Bets piece where we look to find the spots where your money should be headed.
Here are our best bets for Friday’s NBA slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s NBA Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Miami Heat (+195) vs. Washington Wizards (-230)
- Milwaukee Bucks (+110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-130)
- Charlotte Hornets (+350) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-435)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+190) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-225)
- Orlando Magic (+295) vs. Chicago Bulls (-360)
- Indiana Pacers (-205) vs. Houston Rockets (+175)
- Boston Celtics (-145) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (+125)
- Denver Nuggets (+320) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-390)
- Phoenix Suns (-130) vs. Utah Jazz (+110)
- New York Knicks (+250) vs. Golden State Warriors (-300)
- Detroit Pistons (+235) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-280)
Friday’s NBA Best Bets
- Moneyline: Grizzlies (-225 via DraftKings)
- Spread: Jazz +2 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Total: Knicks-Warriors Over 234.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- Upset: Pelicans (+125 via DraftKings)
- Prop bet: Kyle Kuzma 2+ threes (-130 via FanDuel)
Friday's NBA Top Picks
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-225) ★★
There is no such thing as a lock in the NBA but unless we get injury news on this game minutes before tipoff, the Memphis Grizzlies taking care of business is possibly the closest thing you can get to a certainty on this slate.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have won three of their last four games by simply coming out on top in a few shootouts instead of playing defense. They have averaged 130 points per game in this span on the back of MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and are the runaway NBA leader in drives per game (66.3) on the season. With premium rim-protector Jaren Jackson Jr. back in the Grizzlies lineup, the Thunder will not get away with that style. They'll have to get stops on the defensive end and simply put, they don’t have the size to combat Jackson Jr. and Steven Adams and don’t have the guard play to contain Ja Morant.
While the Grizzlies are missing future All-Star candidate Desmond Bane, they still have plenty of offense to go around Morant to out-do the Thunder, who they went 2-1 against straight up with a +77 point differential last season. I’m not paying the juice for the Grizzlies as a straight myself, but I would play it as an un-juicer for a parlay; they should have a steeper cost.
Spread: Jazz +2 (-110) ★★★
The Jazz were projected by Vegas for just 24.5 wins this season. After starting the season off as one of the hottest teams in the NBA, they have come back down to Earth and lost three in a row. On Friday, they face the Finals-aspiring Suns and are only underdogs by two points.
Roughly 78% of the public tickets have come in on the Suns against the spread, yet the line hasn’t moved. The books know the Jazz will keep this game competitive.
Since last season, the Suns are a mediocre 19-19-0 ATS as a road favorite, while the Jazz are 3-1 as a home underdog. The Jazz also have health on their side, with only Rudy Gay listed out on Friday, while the Suns are still without Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, and Landry Shamet.
The switchability and versatility of the starting five of the Jazz can give the banged up Suns problems, especially if their 3-point shooting can undergo some positive regression. Utah has hit threes at just a 32.5% rate during their losing streak.
If Suns guard Chris Paul (questionable) is out again, you might see this game at a pick ‘em by tipoff. Take the Jazz and the points, we don’t want to get screwed by a buzzer-beater but I think the Jazz could win outright on Friday.
Total: Knicks-Warriors Over 234.5 (-110) ★★★
Roughly 97% of the money is on the total's Over and we are riding with the sharps on Friday. The Golden State Warriors have been notoriously bad on the road this season but making it up at home, where they are 6-1 straight up and their scoring spikes. Still, this number has only been cleared in two of those seven Warriors home games and zero of the Knicks’ eight road games. Why is the line set so high? There are two major selling points.
1. The Knicks offense in the paint: New York ranks second in the NBA in field goals made per game in the paint. The Warriors can’t respond, they allow the most field goals made per game in the paint. Rim protection will not be a threat for the drives of R.J. Barrett and Jalen Brunson.
2. Stephen Curry with no pressure: the Knicks simply don’t have the facilities to keep up with Curry on the perimeter as they don’t have a lock-down guard specialist. There’s a reason Curry has cruised to 30 points in three of his last four games against the Knicks and has drained at least five threes in his last four against them.
Both teams rank in the top 10 in the NBA in pace. Getting stops will be optional in this late-night contest.
Upset: Pelicans (+125) ★★★
The Celtics have listed guards Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon as questionable and will continue to be without center Robert Williams III. The New Orleans Pelicans have listed superstar Zion Williamson as questionable.
The Celtics have been the best team in the NBA this season and have won eight straight. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 4-3 against the spread at home, with outright losses to the Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers. Yet, the books have only spotted the Celtics a couple of points. The public is taking the bait - 69% of the tickets are currently on the Celtics against the spread and the live hasn’t even moved.
The books are concerned about the statuses of Boston’s guards and if they are unwilling to go, they will have a hard time stopping the Pelicans, who thrive in the midrange area. Boston allows an NBA-high 7.1 mid-range field goals made per game and New Orleans ranks top 10 shooting there, unsurprising for an offense captained by C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram. The Celtics have also shot a red-hot 45% or better from three in two of their last four road games. On Friday, they have to face a team that allows the second-lowest 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Bet on negative regression and sell high on the Celtics now.
Prop bet: Kuzma 2+ threes (-130) ★★★★
You may not love this play because betting on threes for streaky shooters can be a roller-coaster ride. However, every sign points to the Over we’re getting a particularly nice price on FanDuel right now.
Washington Wizards guard Kyle Kuzma has hit at least two triples in eight of his 15 games this season, five of his nine games at home, and six of his 10 games when Bradley Beal starts. The Heat are a middle-of-the-pack defense surrendering threes to forwards this season but on Friday, they will be without Jimmy Butler and likely without Bam Adebayo, softening their perimeter defense by plenty.
Butler has missed two games this season and in those games, the Heat allowed both of their opponents’ primary spot-up shooters to cash their Overs, with Buddy Hield going 5-12 from three and Kevin Huerter going 4-9 from three.
Kuzma’s volume has been fairly consistent this season, attempting at least five threes in 12 of his 15 games this season. The process suggests he should make at least a pair.
Where to Bet on NBA Best Bets
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NBA best bets made 11/18/2022 at 12:14 p.m. ET.
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