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76ers vs. Mavericks Odds, Picks, Predictions: Who Will Step Up in Primetime?

Ahaan Rungta

Last Updated: March 2, 2023 2:21 PM EST • 3 min 62 sec read.

After a dominant win on Wednesday without Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia 76ers will travel to face the Dallas Mavericks for a primetime matchup against the newly-acquainted duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Read on for our NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Philadelphia 76ers are firmly placed as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and will be on the second leg of a back-to-back in this nationally-televised contest visiting the Dallas Mavericks. Philadelphia crushed their conference rival Miami Heat without their best player in Joel Embiid. While I expect him to return for this highly-anticipated Thursday tilt, he is currently listed as questionable.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks are expected to be fully healthy as only Davis Bertans is listed as out. Since their blockbuster trade for Kyrie Irving, they have been a complete disappointment, winning just one of their last six games, thanks to one of the worst paint defenses in the NBA with their new-look roster.

Here is our best 76ers vs. Mavericks NBA pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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76ers vs. Mavericks pick

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points and rebounds (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Player props for this game are priced as if Joel Embiid is playing, which makes sense since Embiid’s injury concern is not considered serious and he sat out the first leg of Philadelphia’s road back-to-back. Of course, Overs on high-usage starters like Tobias Harris will become of clear value if Embiid is to be ruled out, but this particular line is a smash even under the assumption that Embiid plays.

Harris has cleared this line in 18 of his 36 games this season when James Harden and Joel Embiid are both playing, and now he gets a great matchup for both scoring and rebounding. Over their last seven games, the Mavericks have allowed the 11th-most points per game and seventh-most rebounds per game to small forwards. Players of Harris’ profile are specifically perfect against the Mavericks, who are less deep and versatile defensively since their trade for Irving.

Since Doncic and Irving started playing together on Feb. 11, the Mavericks have allowed the third-most restricted area field goals made per game and seventh-most paint area field goals made per game on the second-highest shooting percentage in both zones in the NBA. Harris, a career slasher, has attempted 52.9% of his field goals and made 62.7% of his field goals from those two areas, ranking third on the team in makes from each zone.

As for the second half of our combo, Harris’ average rebound distance this season measures at 6.7 feet. These are the rebounding statistics of players with a similar average rebound distance to face the Doncic and Irving version of the Mavericks lineup:

  • Keegan Murray: Six rebounds in 28 minutes
  • Terence Davis: Six rebounds in 32 minutes
  • Anthony Edwards: Five rebounds in 36 minutes
  • Keita Bates-Diop: Six rebounds in 29 minutes
  • Jarred Vanderbilt: 17 rebounds in 27 minutes
  • Buddy Hield: Five rebounds in 28 minutes

We expect a close game where starters have to be involved for all four quarters, giving Harris plenty of playing time to clear this combo line.

76ers vs. Mavericks best odds

FanDuel (-115)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Over 19.5 points and reboundsOver 19.5 points and reboundsOver 19.5 points and reboundsOver 19.5 points and reboundsN/A
-120-115-120-119N/A

The best price for the Over on this combo play currently sits on FanDuel, where you have to pay the least juice on this universal line of 19.5. If your preferred book does not have a combo like this available, you can pivot to either Over 14.5 points or Over 5.5 rebounds if it is plus-money, since I like both looks. However, the official play is the combo above, worth the confidence of four stars (one unit). If this line moves to 20.5, the Over drops to a three-star (0.5-unit) confidence play.

Since 10 rebounds is within Harris’ range of outcomes, you could also sprinkle 0.25 units on Harris to get a double-double by building out the following same-game parlay on PointsBet:

  • Tobias Harris 10-plus points
  • Tobias Harris 10-plus rebounds
Screen Shot 2023 03 02 at 12.15.18 Pm

This two-leg parlay is currently priced at +1400, whereas the double-double option has dipped as far as +800 on some other books.

76ers vs. Mavericks odds

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76ers vs. Mavericks odds analysis

The Dallas Mavericks, despite their inability to find a groove on defense, opened as 3-point favorites. With the public fairly split between the 76ers and Mavericks against the spread, the line has now shifted to -3.5 or -4 in favor of Dallas on most books. The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS when Doncic and Irving both play. They are 9-18-2 ATS as a home favorite and an NBA-worst 22-38-3 ATS overall. This season, the 76ers are 5-6 ATS as a road underdog but 35-25-1 ATS overall, the third-best cover rate in the NBA.

The total for this game opened at 230.5, but some interesting line movement has occurred. Despite more than 60% of the public backing the Over, the total currently sits at 228 to 229 across most books. Both Dallas and Philadelphia are among the league’s six most frequent Over teams in the NBA, with the Mavericks going 35-28 to the Over and 76ers being 33-27-1 to the Under.

76ers vs. Mavericks game info

  • Date: Thursday, March 2, 2023, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT
  • Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

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Written By:
Ahaan Rungta
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He's previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he's often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.