Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Best Bets for Sept. 4
The Phoenix Mercury, who beat the Washington Mystics in both meetings thus far, are set to play only their fifth road game in over a month, which impacts my Mercury vs. Mystics prediction.
For my WNBA picks, I like Washington, the 9.5-point betting underdog, to keep things competitive against a Phoenix team that had to travel across the country after defeating Indiana on Tuesday.
Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at CareFirst Arena in Washington (Prime Video). I've also included a player prop, featuring a consistent interior presence.
🏀 Mercury vs. Mystics expert picks & predictions
WNBA expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Mercury (-450 via bet365) ⭐
- Against the spread pick: Mystics +9.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 158.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Mercury vs. Mystics preview & best bet
✨ Mystics +9.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐
The Mystics haven’t fared well against the Mercury this season, losing both games by an average of 11 points. However, Washington can still compete with a Phoenix squad that has only played four of its previous 12 games on the road.
The Mercury have struggled to keep opponents off the free-throw line, which could spell trouble against a Mystics squad that averages a WNBA-best 21.2 attempts per game from the charity stripe.
I anticipate Washington being aggressive, trying to draw fouls and start a parade to the free-throw line.
A $10 wager on the Mystics to cover the spread would provide a $9.26 profit. The -108 odds from FanDuel, one of our best sports betting sites, have an implied probability of 51.92%.
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💰 Best Mercury vs. Mystics player prop bet
🔥 Kiki Iriafen Over 21.5 points and rebounds (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Iriafen has been a force in her maiden season in the WNBA, making the All-Star Game alongside rookie teammate Sonia Citron.
Iriafen is fifth in the league with 15 double-doubles this season. She’s elevated her game as of late, averaging 15.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per game on 52% shooting over the last 11 games.
The Mystics have outperformed expectations in 2025 due to the play of Iriafen and Citron. That will be key to having any success against one of the league’s hottest teams—a $10 wager on Iriafen’s over nets a profit of $9.26. The -108 odds have an implied probability of 51.92%.
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📊 Mercury vs. Mystics odds: Sept. 4
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Mercury vs. Mystics betting odds analysis
The Mercury opened as the 9-point road betting favorite, which has increased to 9.5 at some of the best sports betting apps.
🔢 Mercury vs. Mystics stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| MERCURY (26-14) | Statistic (per game) | MYSTICS (16-25) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Net rating | -5.1 |
| 103.9 | Offensive rating | 97.9 |
| 99.7 | Defensive rating | 103.0 |
| 83.1 | Points | 77.9 |
| 79.6 | Points allowed | 81.6 |
| 34.7 | Rebounds | 33.0 |
| 20.9 | Assists | 19.2 |
| 13.5 | Turnovers | 15.4 |
| 43.5% | FG% | 44.1% |
| 33.7% | 3PT% | 33.2% |
📺 Mercury vs. Mystics game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 4
- Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: CareFirst Arena (Washington)
- How to watch: Prime Video
❓ Mercury vs. Mystics FAQs
Who is favored to win Mercury vs. Mystics?
The Mercury are the 9-point betting favorite against the Mystics on Thursday at CareFirst Arena.
What is the Over/Under for Mercury vs. Mystics?
The total for Thursday’s game between the Mercury and Mystics is 158.5.
What are the best bets for Mercury vs. Mystics?
My best bets for Thursday’s game between the Mercury and Mystics are Washington +9.5 (-108) and Kiki Iriafen Over 21.5 points and rebounds (-108).
When is the Mercury vs. Mystics game?
Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at CareFirst Arena.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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