Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: WNBA Best Bets for September 17
The New York Liberty can close things out against Phoenix in Game 2, and I’m expecting them to take care of business as I make my Mercury vs. Liberty prediction. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Barclays Center (ESPN).
For my WNBA picks, I think it could be a game for Sabrina Ionescu to be aggressive with uncertainty surrounding Breanna Stewart’s status, and I’m riding with the Over on one of her player props.
🏀 Mercury vs. Liberty expert picks & predictions
WNBA expert picks made Wednesday odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Liberty (-145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Liberty -2.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 159.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
📝 Mercury vs. Liberty preview & best bet
🗽 Liberty -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
The Mercury let a golden opportunity slip away in Game 1, and now have to travel across the country to try and stave off elimination in New York.
Phoenix struggled to hit shots all season, finishing ninth in the WNBA in field-goal percentage. That reared its ugly head in Game 1, as the Mercury missed a whopping 52 of their 77 field-goal attempts (32.5%).
The Liberty held teams to the third-best opponents’ shooting percentage during the regular season, which could be an indicator that points could be hard to come by again for Phoenix in Game 2.
A $10 bet on New York to cover the spread would provide a profit of $9.09. The -110 odds from one of the best sportsbooks, FanDuel, have an implied probability of 52.38%.
💰 Best Mercury vs. Liberty player prop bet
⬆️ Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 points (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Stewart was forced to leave New York’s Game 1 win after injuring her left knee in overtime. The two-time WNBA MVP also missed 13 games during the regular season with a right knee injury. It’s fair to wonder how limited Stewart might be even if she’s able to suit up for Game 2. There could be more shots for the rest of the Liberty, with Ionescu most likely to benefit.
Ionescu was excellent in two home meetings against Phoenix during the regular season, averaging 22.5 points. She struggled with her shot in 2025 (29.9% from three-point range), but is a career 40.5% three-point shooter in the playoffs. I expect her to see an uptick in usage, and Ionescu is always capable of erupting from behind the arc in any given game.
A $10 wager on Ionescu’s Over nets out a profit of $8.85 at FanDuel. The -113 odds have an implied probability of 53.05%.
📊 Mercury vs. Liberty odds: Sept. 17
WNBA odds update live in real time.
📈 Mercury vs. Liberty betting odds analysis
The Liberty opened as the 2.5-point home favorites, with some of the best sporting apps offering them as high as a -3.5 favorite.
🔢 Mercury vs. Liberty stats
Season stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
| Mercury (27-17) | Statistic (per game) | Liberty (27-17) |
| 3.2 | Net rating | 5.2 |
| 103.6 | Offensive rating | 105.8 |
| 100.4 | Defensive rating | 100.6 |
| 82.8 | Points | 84.4 |
| 80.1 | Points allowed | 80.3 |
| 34.7 | Rebounds | 33.7 |
| 20.9 | Assists | 21.8 |
| 13.5 | Turnovers | 13.8 |
| 43.3% | FG% | 45.3% |
| 34.0% | 3PT% | 35.5% |
📺 Mercury vs. Liberty game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 17
- Tipoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn
- How to watch: ESPN
💡 Expert WNBA predictions today
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❓ Mercury vs. Liberty FAQs
The Liberty are 2.5-point favorites against the Mercury for Game 2 on Wednesday at Barclays Center.
What is the Over/Under for Mercury vs. Liberty?
The total for Wednesday’s game between the Mercury and Liberty is 159.5.
What are the best bets for Mercury vs. Liberty?
My best bets for Wednesday’s game between the Mercury and Liberty are New York -2.5 (-110) and Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 points (-113).
When is the Mercury vs. Liberty game?
Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
How do WNBA odds work?
When betting on the WNBA, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -5.5 must win by 6 or more points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +5.5 must win outright or lose by 5 or fewer points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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