United States Grand Prix Odds & Predictions 2025: Expert F1 Picks, Best Long Shot Bet
For the first time since the start of the season, Max Verstappen is the pre-race betting favorite.
He'll be poised and focused to make it three wins in the last four races as the +175 betting favorite by the United States Grand Prix odds to win on Sunday at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. I offer my United States Grand Prix predictions for the 3 p.m. ET race on ESPN. The McLaren drivers are hot on Verstappen's tail, with Lando Norris trading at +200 and Oscar Piastri at +250. George Russell, the surprise winner in Singapore, sits at an appealing +1600 by the outright odds at bet365 to win the United States Grand Prix.
๐ฅUnited States Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
United States Grand Prix odds to win via BetMGM:
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Lando Norris | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Oscar Piastri | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| George Russell | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Isack Hadjar | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Liam Lawson | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Alex Albon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Carlos Sainz | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Esteban Ocon | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
๐ฐ United States Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Here are my best United States Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race at Circuit of the Americas. It's the 18th race of the 24 scheduled for the 2025 season.
๐ Pick to win United States Grand Prix: Max Verstappen โญโญโญโญ
If the season were extended four or so races, Verstappen would be in with a viable shot of overturning the deficit between him and the two McLaren drivers, which seemed insurmountable just a few months ago.
He has won two of the last three races and probably would have triumphed in Singapore had Lando Norris not made contact with him on the opening lap.
The Dutchman has won three of the previous four United States Grand Prix races and thrives in Austin. Another perceived advantage for the four-time defending champion is the slower average speed at Circuit of the Americas.
It is the seventh-slowest track on the circuit, with an average speed of 214.955 km/h, favoring the slightly inferior RB21. Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings is the place to place this wager.
Best odds: +225 via DraftKings ($10 to win $22.50)
Implied probability: 30.77%
๐ Best value bet to win United States Grand Prix: Lando Norris โญโญโญโญ
The gap is down to 22 points atop the Drivers' Standings, with Norris heaping more pressure on Piastri with every passing race. There are still six races remaining, so there is plenty of time for the Briton to leapfrog the Aussie and win his first world title.
Norris has been the more aggressive of the pair, evidenced by his brazen takeover attempt in the opening lap in Singapore, which created contact with Verstappen, who rolled into Piastri. Norris finished third at the Singapore Grand Prix, the third straight race he finished in front of Piastri.
The controversial move also created drama within Papaya, which could spill over.
In my recent Formula One prediction, I backed the more experienced Norris to overtake Piastri and win the championship. While Norris hasn't performed particularly well in Austin, he managed his best result, second, in 2023.
And I expect him to be the more ruthless of the duo yet again.
Best odds: +220 via DraftKings ($10 to win $22)
Implied probability: 31.25%
๐ฏ Best long shot to win United States Grand Prix: George Russell โญโญโญ
Finally, a long shot won a race, with Russell taking the checkered flag in Singapore. While he required some good fortune, Russell's victory provides hope that he'll be able to win a second successive race and third overall.
His previous best finish at Circuit of the Americas was fifth, which he achieved twice (2022, 2023).
Despite his mediocre track record at the United States Grand Prix, his excellent recent form makes him a better choice than Charles Leclerc, who won in Austin last year. Russell has three podium finishes in the last six races, finishing first and second in the previous two.
Best odds: +1400 via bet365 ($10 to win $140)
Implied probability: 6.67%
๐ Past United States Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 United States Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ๐ฒ๐จ Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | ๐ซ๐ฎ Kimi Rรคikkรถnen | Ferrari |
| 2017 | ๐ฌ๐ง Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | ๐ฌ๐ง Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | ๐ฌ๐ง Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2014 | ๐ฌ๐ง Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
๐ United States Grand Prix trends & history
- Circuit of the Americas was completed at a cost of around $400 million USD and welcomed 117,429 race-day fans for its inaugural F1 race in November 2012
- The track, 3.427 miles (5.515 km), is located on 890 acres (3.6 km2) of land, located 14 miles (22km) southeast of central Austin
- The Austin360 Amphitheater and the permanent main grandstand holds 9,000 fans
- In 2021, over 400,000 fans attended over race weekend
- The Circuit of the Americas will remain as host of the United States Grand Prix until at least 2026
- Lewis Hamilton has won the most United States Grand Prix races (6), including a run of six out of seven and four in a row
- Ferrari is the most successful team at the race, with 10 wins
- No American driver has won the United States Grand Prix since it became part of the Formula One circuit
- Circuit of the Americas has a difference of 30.9 meters between the lowest and highest points, one of the largest discrepancies
- It is the seventh-slowest track on the circuit, according to its 214.955 km/h average speed
- Charles Leclerc has the lap record (1:36.169), which he set 2019
๐บ How to watch the 2025 United States Grand Prix
- Race date: Sunday, Oct. 19
- Start time: 3 p.m. ET
- Track: Circuit of the Americas (Austin, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
- Weather: 84 degrees, 7-mph to 11-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
๐๏ธ United States Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Oct. 17; 1:30 p.m. ET
- Sprint Qualifying: Friday, Oct. 17; 5:30 p.m. ET
- Sprint: Saturday, Oct. 18; 1 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Oct. 18; 5 p.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Oct. 19; 3 p.m. ET
โ United States Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the United States Grand Prix?
Max Vetstappen (+175) is the betting favorite to win the United States Grand Prix.
What are the odds for the United States Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen (+175), Lando Norris (+200), and Oscar Piastri (+250) top the United States Grand Prix odds to win.
What time is the 2025 United States Grand Prix?
The United States Grand Prix starts at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 19.
How to watch the 2025 United States Grand Prix
You can watch the United States Grand Prix on ESPN and ESPN+.
Who has won the most United States Grand Prix races?
Lewis Hamilton has the most United States Grand Prix wins (6).
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