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2024 French Open Expert Picks & Predictions: Winner Predictions & Tournament Props for Roland Garros

Mike Spector

Last Updated: May 26, 2024 11:56 AM EDT • 5 min 58 sec read.

Carlos Alcaraz during practices for the 2024 French Open as we look at our 2024 French Open expert picks
Carlos Alcaraz during practices for the 2024 French Open tennis tournament on May 22, 2024 at Roland-Garros stadium in Paris, France. Photo by Alexandre Martins/DPPI via AFP.

The second Grand Slam of the 2024 tennis season swings into action on Sunday, and we're offering our best French Open expert picks and predictions based on the odds for Roland Garros from our best sports betting sites.

Rafael Nadal's confirmation of his participation in this year's French Open has electrified the men's draw. The revered "King of Clay" missed the 2023 tournament due to injury but returns alongside his perennial rival, Novak Djokovic. How his fitness is after a long layoff may be an issue.

Since 2010, only Stan Wawrinka in 2015 has managed to break the Nadal-Djokovic dominance at Roland Garros. The 2024 French Open odds favor Carlos Alcaraz, so maybe there's a shift coming in men's tennis.

In the women's competition, Aryna Sabalenka, fresh from her Australian Open triumph, aims to break the recent trend of four different women winning the four Grand Slam events each year, a pattern that's hit in six of the past seven years.

Of course, World No. 1 Iga Swiatek stands in her way. Swiatek is on a quest for her fourth French Open title in five years, and her consecutive victories in 2022 and 2023 marked a departure from the six-year period from 2016 to 2021, during which the tournament saw six first-time Grand Slam champions.

Here are our French Open expert picks (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

French Open expert picks

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French Open Men’s winner

Alexander Zverev ⭐⭐⭐

Alexander Zverev has an excellent opportunity to cash in on his first-ever French Open title, having made the semifinals at Roland Garros each of the previous three years. He has had success in the clay-court season leading up to this major, as he won his second Rome title (in his third final) while dropping just one set throughout. That was his sixth Masters 1000 title, which is now tied for the ninth-most of all time. Zverev served masterfully in the final against Nicolas Jarry, winning 95% (37/39) of his first service points and never facing a break-point or going to deuce in 11 service games in the match.

That win was ultra important for Zverev, who rose from fifth to fourth in the ATP rankings and, as a result, avoided the top three Men’s seeds before the semifinals. However, the draw did not break entirely Zverev’s way, as a first-round match against Nadal, who is 112-3 in his career at Roland Garros, awaits. Perhaps a matchup with Nadal is exactly what he needs to get over the mental hurdle of his gruesome ankle injury in his French Open semifinal match against the Spaniard, and a win over a 22-time Grand Slam champion should boost all the confidence he needs to propel him through the ensuing six matches.

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With Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Jannik Sinner all having missed some tournaments earlier this season with nagging injuries, Zverev’s +700 odds are excellent value, especially since his odds are as low as +600 at some of our best sports betting sites.

Best odds: +700 via bet365

French Open Women’s winner

Aryna Sabalenka ⭐⭐⭐

Sabalenka is well behind Swiatek on the odds leaderboards given the World No. 1’s dominance of this tournament recently, in addition to Swiatek beating Sabalenka in the finals of two clay-court events this season. However, given how those matches have played out, perhaps Swiatek’s overwhelming -180 odds to win the French Open title are not justified.

Sabalenka had three match points in the Madrid final against Swiatek before losing a third-set tiebreak. And in Rome, she had seven break-point chances in Swiatek’s first two service games of the second set, and played much bigger with 18 winners to Swiatek’s 11. However, Sabalenka was undone by 28 unforced errors to Swiatek’s eight, which she will have to clean up over the next two weeks.

Sabalenka dismissed any lingering back issues as to the reasons why she could not get over the hump against Swiatek, and though she has a 3-8 career record against her, the +550 odds at DraftKings are worth a long look and offer much more value than the +450 odds found elsewhere.

Best odds: +550 via DraftKings

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French Open prop picks

Double chance winner: Alexander Zverev or Jannik Sinner ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We project this to be one of the most wide-open French Opens on the Men’s side since the tournament has been dominated by Djokovic and Nadal for the last 13 years, as the four biggest clay-court tournaments leading up to Roland Garros have been won by four different players (Rome-Zverev, Madrid-Rublev, Barcelona-Ruud, Monte Carlo-Tsitsipas). Therefore, we have no desire to back either of the two main favorites, Alcaraz and Djokovic, and oddsmakers are somewhat tipping their hands with relatively low double-chance odds for those two at -110.

When healthy, no Men’s player has played better tennis this season than Sinner. He won his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and also added to his trophy case at the Rotterdam Open and Miami Open. He will be heavily motivated to secure the first World No. 1 ranking by an Italian player, needing only Novak Djokovic not to reach the final to do so.

Sinner is a prohibitive favorite to win his quarter and reach the semifinals, as big servers like Christopher Eubanks (his first round opponent), Nicolas Jarry (possible fourth round opponent) and Hubert Hurkacz (possible quarterfinal opponent) are his biggest threats. However, those opponents would be more feared on grass or hard courts, as clay tends to neutralize a big service game the most of any surface. From there, a possible semifinal matchup against Carlos Alcaraz awaits, but Sinner is 4-4 against the Spaniard and won their only meeting on clay at the Umag final in 2022. This is also a four-star play, as we are giving ourselves more chances to advance each player by selecting two men on opposite halves of the draw.

Best odds: +250 via FanDuel

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To win without dropping a set: Iga Swiatek ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Swiatek paid off -115 and -105 pre-tournament odds for her backers at the previous French Opens, and while many bettors will scoff at her steep -180 pre-tournament odds at FanDuel this year, the sportsbook still offers a creative way to be profitable by backing the sport’s best player.

Swiatek is coming off her third Italian Open title where she did not drop a set and dominated the World's second and third-ranked players, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, in the semifinals and finals, losing more than three games in just one of those four sets. Swiatek needs two more Rome titles in her career (she is 20-2 in her career in that tournament) to tie the Women's record of five titles at the event.

Swiatek became the first woman to complete the "dirt double" since Serena Williams in 2013, winning in Madrid and Rome back-to-back. Her outstanding foot speed puts pressure on opponents and forces plenty of errors, and she has won nine consecutive finals since losing to Sabalenka last year. 

Perhaps the only negative against Swiatek heading into the tournament is her difficult draw, where she could face fellow four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka in the second round. Further down the road, she could draw 2021 champions Barbora Krejcikova and in the Round of 16, and a quarterfinal match against either 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova, or Danielle Collins (No. 11 seed). However, Swiatek has navigated similarly difficult draws and dropped just one set in each of her previous two French Open appearances, so these +390 odds to run the table and not drop a set on the way to a title are a great value. With Swiatek and Sabalenka the two clear-cut favorites on the Women’s side, we have two excellent complimentary plays with us to profit from.

Best odds: +390 via FanDuel

French Open expert picks made 5/23 at 5:18 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.