TIFF Odds, Favorites & Betting Picks 2025: Toronto International Film Festival Begins Sept. 4
I'm looking at the TIFF odds, ahead of the 50th Annual Toronto International Film Festival, and picking who I think will take home the two major awards. The event will take place in Toronto from September 4 through September 14.
The two major categories at TIFF are the People's Choice Award and the Midnight Madness award. The betting favorites for Midnight Madness are "Nirvanna: The Band - the Show - the Movie" and "Dead Lover", while the betting favorites for the People's Choice Award are "Rental Family" and "Christy."
Below, I dive into why each movie can win, and what films could pull upsets at the festival.
TIFF odds 2025
Here are the 2025 TIFF odds from FanDuel Ontario and my best predictions for the most notable awards.
Midnight Madness winner odds
| Film | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Nirvanna: The Band - the Show - the Movie | +210 |
| Dead Lover | +500 |
| Dust Bunny | +750 |
| The Furious | +750 |
| Obsession | +750 |
| The Napa Boys | +900 |
| Normal | +1100 |
| Fuck My Son! | +1100 |
| Karmadonna | +1100 |
| Junk World | +1600 |
My prediction: Nirvanna: The Band - the Show - the Movie
People's Choice award winner odds
| Film | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Rental Family | +250 |
| Christy | +850 |
| Hamnet | +900 |
| Sentimental Value | +900 |
| It Was Just an Accident | +1100 |
| Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | +1100 |
| Mile End Kicks | +1300 |
| The Smashing Machine | +1300 |
| Frankenstein | +1300 |
| Sound of Falling | +1400 |
| Poetic License | +1600 |
| Dead Man's Wife | +1600 |
| The Lost Bus | +1800 |
| If I Had Legs I'd Kick You | +1900 |
| The Choral | +2000 |
| Homebound | +2000 |
| Hedda | +2000 |
| Good Fortune | +2200 |
| No Other Choice | +2200 |
| Nouvelle Vague | +2500 |
| Peak Everything | +2500 |
| Ky Nam Inn | +2500 |
| A Poet | +2700 |
| Easy's Waltz | +3000 |
| Good News | +3000 |
| Ballad of a Small Player | +3000 |
| It Would Be Night in Caracas | +3000 |
| Sholay | +3500 |
| Eternity | +3500 |
| Couture | +4000 |
| California Schemin' | +4000 |
| Eternal Return | +4000 |
| Primavera | +4000 |
| Steal Away | +4000 |
| Project Y | +4000 |
| Bad Apples | +4000 |
| Roofman | +4000 |
| Palestine 36 | +4000 |
| The Secret Agent | +4000 |
| Kokuho | +4000 |
| The Testament of Ann Lee | +4500 |
| Meadowlarks | +4500 |
| Charlie Harper | +4500 |
| Monkey in a Cage | +4500 |
| Lovely Day | +4500 |
| Uiksaringitara | +4500 |
| Sacrifice | +4500 |
| Scarlet | +4500 |
| Three Goodbyes | +4500 |
| Rose of Nevada | +4500 |
| Glenrothan | +5000 |
| The Ugly | +5000 |
| Two Pianos | +5000 |
| Franz | +5000 |
| Train Dreams | +5000 |
| Driver's Ed | +5000 |
| Silent Friend | +5000 |
| She Has No Name | +5000 |
| Calle Malaga | +5000 |
| Swiped | +5500 |
| Tuner | +5500 |
| Fuze | +5500 |
| Nuremberg | +5500 |
| Adulthood | +5500 |
| Sirat | +5500 |
| A Pale View of Hills | +6000 |
| The Captive | +6000 |
| You Had To Be There: How the Toronto Godspell Ignited the Comedy Revolution | +6000 |
| John Candy: I Like Me | +10000 |
| The Christophers | +10000 |
| Eleanor the Great | +10000 |
| EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert | +10000 |
| Degrassi: Whatever it Takes | +10000 |
| A Private Life | +10000 |
| Lilith Fair: Building a Mystery | +10000 |
My prediction: Sentimental Value (+900)
My best TIFF predictions
Midnight Madness winner: Nirvanna: The Band - the Show - the Movie
Odds: +210 ($10 bet pays $21 profit)
Midnight Madness has been a tough category to predict. Last year, "The Substance" took home the award, while the year before it was "Dicks: The Musical." In 2022, "Weird: The Al Yankovic Story" took home the prize, and in 2021, it was the French body horror film "Titane" that won. So how do you pick a winner in this category?
To me, it comes down to which movie has gotten the most hype entering the event. Without a doubt, that's "Nirvanna: The Band - the Show - the Movie." The film, which premiered at the 2025 South by Southwest Film & TV Festival, has received nothing but great reviews since its release. It currently boasts a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While "Dead Lover" may be more in line with "The Substance," "Titane," and 2019 winner "The Platform," voters have not shied away from giving this award to comedies, as shown by the winners in 2022 and 2023. Unless something absolutely stuns audiences at the festival, this award is already wrapped up.
People's Choice Award winner: Sentimental Value
Odds: +900 ($10 bet pays $90 profit)
In recent years, sentimentality has ruled the day when it comes to the People's Choice Award. Four of the last five winners were "The Life of Chuck," "The Fabelmans," "Belfast," and "Nomadland," so it's not surprising to see "Rental Family" favored to win.
However, I think that "Rental Family" is probably being a little overvalued in this category. While Chloe Zhao's "Hamnet" is a contender, especially after the success of "Nomadland" at this event, I think the genre of the film ultimately eliminates it from consideration. The same can be said of "Christy" and "It Was Just an Accident." While these movies could end up with great reviews, they're not the types of films that generally hit with TIFF audiences. Therefore, I've narrowed this award down to two movies that could hit exactly what TIFF audiences are looking for: "Sentimental Value" and "Mile End Kicks."
"Sentimental Value" is a film that deals with family drama that is so evident in recent People's Choice Award winners, such as "American Fiction." Plus, it's about film, which tends to be a popular subject with film festival audiences. After all, "La La Land" won this award in 2016. Meanwhile, "Mile End Kicks" is a Canadian romantic comedy with a feel-good premise about a woman who searches for success in Montreal. If the audience votes to keep this award in Canada, "Mile End Kicks" will win.
But for my money, I'm backing "Sentimental Value."
❓ Toronto International Film Festival FAQs
When is TIFF?
TIFF takes place from September 4 through September 14, 2025.
Where is TIFF?
TIFF takes place at various sites throughout downtown Toronto.
Who votes on the TIFF awards?
TIFF audience member vote on the People's Choice Award and Midnight Madness award.
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