NYC Mayor Odds 2025: Adams Endorses Cuomo, but Mamdani Far Ahead as Betting Favorite
It seems like only a matter of time now before the fast-rising Zohran Mamdani becomes the next mayor-elect in New York, and the 2025 New York mayor odds reflect his dominance during the final days of campaigning.
Voters will cast their ballots on Nov. 4, a few months after Mamdani stunned former state governor Andrew Cuomo during the city's Democratic mayoral primary in late June. Cuomo then regrouped to run as an independent, but he still trails Mamdani significantly in polls and by the odds.
We'll dive into that, but first let's look at a critical endorsement Cuomo received just prior to election day.
β Key late endorsement for Cuomo
Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor who has been mired in controversy for some time and recently dropped out of the race, endorsed Cuomo in the final days of the campaign. The public support came a day after the two sat courtside at a New York Knicks game.
Adams added more fuel to the increasingly combative nature of the campaign, especially after a debate when temperatures ran hot between Cuomo, Mamdani, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
"Am I angry that I'm not the one taking down Zohran, the socialist and the communist? You're darn right I am," Adams said, via ABC News. "But you know what? The city means more to me than anything, and it is time for us as a family to come together."
Meanwhile, Mamdani outlined the influence of Donald Trump.
"We have a president of this country who has spoken publicly of his desire for Eric Adams to drop out of the race," he said, again via ABC News. "Eric Adams dropped out. [He has] spoken of his desire for candidates to consolidate behind Andrew Cuomo. Today, Eric Adams is endorsing Andrew Cuomo."
Though election nights can always come with surprises, as Mamdani himself showed, it's difficult to imagine Adams' endorsement making a significant difference. A recent Marist poll showed Mamdani ahead 46% to Cuomo's 30%, via The New York Times.
π’ New York mayor election odds 2025
Though we saw during the most recent U.S. presidential election there are pockets of New York City beginning to slowly lean toward the right, the city remains mostly liberal. That makes the Democratic primary especially significant, as the winner gets a clear path to the mayor's office.
Mamdani is now racing down that golden road, and the probabilities from Kalshi show he's in an increasingly strong position, with his chances of getting the highest office in the state growing throughout the summer and now into the fall.
Kalshi is the only legal and regulated prediction market in America, is featuring a market tied to the upcoming New York City mayoral election.
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π³οΈ Who will be the next mayor of New York City?
Here is Kalshi's prediction market for the 2025 NYC mayoral election on Nov. 4 with the anticipated five candidates, including current mayor Eric Adams. Cuomo is now running as an independent.
Use Kalshi promo code "SBR" to claim your $10 bonus:
| Candidate | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 92% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 8% |
| Curtis Sliwa | Less than 1% |
| Eric Adams | Less than 1% |
| Jim Walden | Less than 1% |
The race is so slanted that Kalshi is now posting other markets tied to what the margin of victory will be for Mamdani, what percentage of the vote he'll get, and who will win second place.
Mamdani - who ran on a highly progressive agenda that includes increasing taxes on the wealthy and making public buses free - has already beaten Cuomo once, though at the time surprisingly, while easily cruising to a victory during the Democratic primary earlier this summer.
It was a delayed triumph of sorts, with the vote-counting process in a ranked-choice system often taking a week or so. But in the end, Mamdani soared past his more experienced rival while taking 56% of the vote to Cuomo's 44%.
Cuomo announced he'll resume his mayoral run soon after, but this time as an independent, though the former New York governor is still a candidate far more to the center compared to Mamdani and his socialist agenda.
Included in that agenda is now targeting FIFA ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which will be held jointly in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Mamdani is highly opposing the dynamic pricing for tickets to World Cup matches, a system that allows for cost adjustments based on factors like supply and demand. Consequently, a ticket that costs $60 on the low end for group stage matches is likely to increase even further.
"I have long been quite troubled by how the supposed stewards of the game have opted for profit time and time again at the expense of the people that love this game,β said Mamdani, via The Guardian. βAnd I think what is stunning to me is these demands that we are putting forward, they are just demands that go back to what (FIFA) has done in previous World Cups.
"And yet what they are seeing with the World Cup here in the United States, Mexico, and Canada is the prospect of increasing their revenues up close to 400% compared to what they were in Qatar.β
Elsewhere, there was much discussion throughout the summer about what Mamdani's rise means for a Democratic party searching for its new de facto leader - or perhaps a fresh identity while picking up the pieces after Donald Trump took the White House again in last year's presidential election.
Some of that chatter, like a recent column in The Hill, wonders if Mamdani and his far-left policies represent too large of a risk for Democrats. However, the percentages at Kalshi show increasing momentum, with the chances of Mamdani reaching office spiking from 72% in late June to 83% by mid-September, and now 92%. Cuomo, his closest challenger, is miles back at 8%.
New York will almost certainly be getting a new mayor on Nov. 4, and current projections from both Kalshi and polling indicate Mamdani's meteoric ascension is set to continue.
β NYC mayor odds FAQs
When is the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
The New York City mayoral election will take place on Nov. 4.
Who are the candidates in the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic nominee), Eric Adams (independent), Andrew Cuomo (independent), Curtis Sliwa (Republican), and Jim Walden (independent) are expected to run in the 2025 mayoral election.
Who is the current mayor of New York City?
Eric Adams is currently serving as the 110th mayor of New York City. He's expected to run as an independent in the 2025 election.
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