NASCAR Predictions at Talladega: 2025 YellaWood 500 Odds & Expert Picks

As the Round of 8 continues, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega for what should be a thrilling, action-packed event full of close racing. I’m here to offer my YellaWood 500 predictions while breaking down the latest NASCAR odds for Talladega. The action gets underway at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Ala.

Want to make sure SBR shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed? Simply click here and add Sportsbook Review as one of your "source preferences".

---

📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Talladega

Latest NASCAR odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

🥇 YellaWood 500 betting favorites 🥇

• Ryan Blaney, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
• Joey Logano, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Austin Cindric, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Chase Elliott, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• William Byron, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• Brad Keselowski, +1500 ($10 to win $150)
• Kyle Larson, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Denny Hamlin, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Kyle Busch, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Chris Buescher, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Bubba Wallace, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Christopher Bell, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Alex Bowman, +2200 ($10 to win $220)

---

🏁 NASCAR predictions & preview at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway is one of three true “superspeedway” events on the schedule. These events feature a specific rules package intended to limit top overall speeds since the combination of smooth track surfaces, high banking, and long straightaways can result in a treacherous pace. The current record at Talladega of 212.8 mph was set in 1987, before the sport imposed such rules. 

The superspeedway rules package creates tight-knit pack racing as drivers rely on the draft to make pace. This can create unexpected winners and plenty of cautions. Last year’s winner of the fall Talladega race, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., scored his lone top three of the season – and two of his three top fives – at this venue.  

The key fact to know about Talladega and the rest of the superspeedways has been Ford’s recent dominance. Despite making up less than half the field, Fords have led over half the laps in the NextGen Era, including 62% of them since 2023 and 56% of them this season alone. Blue Ovals don’t always lead the last lap, but they’re always in contention.

📈 NASCAR trends at Talladega Superspeedway

🏎️ Trend #1. Front Row Racing has been putting the “Front Row” in their name here – at least in qualifying. A Front Row Racing driver has qualified on the pole in the last three races at Talladega, with Zane Smith qualifying first in the spring and Michael McDowell sweeping the poles a year before. Despite the advantageous starting spots, none of them finished inside the top 15 in the race.

🏎️ Trend #2. Starting position doesn’t matter. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, no winner has started in the first three rows. Just two of the seven winners even started inside the top 10. Drivers routinely come from the back to the front at Talladega, and they can even do it quickly enough to score stage points.

🏎️ Trend #3. Death, taxes, and Joey Logano at the front. The pilot of the No. 22 Ford is a safe bet to be at the front – he has led double-digit laps in the last four Talladega races, including a race-high 48 laps (25.3%) in October 2023. With his championship hopes on the line, Logano should keep that streak alive on Sunday. 

---

🏆 Pick to win YellaWood 500: Joey Logano (+1100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Denny Hamlin delivered for us at Las Vegas. While he had some things fall his way late (looking at you, Ty Dillon), he was a close fourth in average green-flag speed. I feel as strongly about Hamlin last week as I do about Logano this week. The pilot of the No. 22 Ford knows that he is in a 24-point hole to the playoff cut line, which means he won’t have a chance to compete for his third-straight NASCAR Cup Series title. Neither Logano nor crew chief Paul Wolfe can abide that.

Desperation narrative aside, Logano pilots a Ford, and the Blue Ovals have been electric at superspeedways, leading 62% of the laps since 2023. Logano led the most laps for the manufacturer here in the spring. He led 19 laps here last fall, third-most among Ford drivers, as Stenhouse pulled off an improbable late-race upset due to the three best Fords getting wiped out in an accident. He also led 22 laps here last spring, second most among all Ford drivers, including a win in Stage 2.

We’re just getting too good a deal here with Logano at +1100 (8.3%), which would earn us a $110 profit on a simple $10 bet at BetMGM. Logano and his Team Penske teammates are the first three drivers on the oddsboard for a reason – look for them to remind everyone why on Sunday.

---

💎 Best value bet to win YellaWood 500: Ryan Preece (+3000) ⭐⭐⭐

The three RFK Racing Fords, while not as dominant as their Team Penske counterparts, still have plenty of speed in the draft. Chris Buescher stole a playoff win at Daytona in 2023. Brad Keselowski has routinely been at the front at these venues this year, too, nearly winning at Atlanta before coming up just short. But it’s the third RFK Racing driver, Ryan Preece, who stands out with the most value at +3000 (3.2%) at DraftKings, which would yield a $300 profit on a $10 bet.

While Preece doesn’t have a superspeedway win like his teammates, he is no slouch in the draft, especially at Talladega. In his Cup Series debut here, he piloted the No. 47 Chevrolet to a third-place finish. He has led at least one lap in four of the five superspeedway races this year, including six at Talladega in the spring, which he did after qualifying an impressive fourth. Preece should start near the front and stay near it on Sunday, so don’t leave him off your betting card this week.

---

🎯 Best long shot to win YellaWood 500: Zane Smith (+5500) ⭐⭐⭐

Of all the Ford drivers, the best sports betting sites are discounting Zane Smith the most disrespectfully. Smith has two superspeedway wins from his time in the Truck Series. He contended for the win for most of the day at Atlanta over the summer and won the pole here in the spring. While Front Row Racing may not be the most dominant team, it is no stranger to Victory Lane at these tracks, with Michael McDowell and David Ragan scoring superspeedway wins for them in the recent past.

To be fair, Smith probably won’t dominate the race on Sunday. We don’t need him to do so for us to cash this ticket. With playoff elimination facing the Ford camp following Ryan Blaney’s struggles at Las Vegas, I expect the Blue Ovals to take their strategy for Talladega that much more seriously. Smith and his fellow Ford drivers should be at the front late in the race, and we know Smith has the talent and skill necessary to parlay a spot near the front into a win.

Lock him in to score a $550 profit on a $10 bet at +5500 (1.8%) odds on Caesars.

---

💰 Best NASCAR prop bet picks at Talladega

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including NASCAR) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

---

🔥 Best prop bet for YellaWood 500: Ford winning manufacturer (+160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It’s been difficult to turn much of a profit from betting on Ford to win at superspeedways lately, with most of the best sports betting apps listing them somewhere in the +100 (50%) to +125 (44.4%) range. But now we’re getting them all the way out at +160 (38.5%), enough to turn a $16 profit on a $10 bet, which is the perfect spot to buy them for Sunday’s race.

Again, Ford drivers have led 62% of the laps on superspeedways since 2023, and they have led 56% of them this season. A quick look reveals that they make up 13 of the 40 cars on the entry list, or 32.5%, which is just barely better than the implied odds for this bet. While that may give you pause, a scroll through the outright markets should inspire some confidence.

At DraftKings, where Ford clocks in at +160, a look at the top of the oddsboard reveals some faith in the manufacturer’s best drivers. Ryan Blaney (+900, 10%), Joey Logano (+1000, 9.1%), and Austin Cindric (+1000, 9.1%), the three Team Penske drivers, are enough to get us to 28.2% of the manufacturer’s implied probability. Add in Brad Keselowski (+1800, 5.3%), the winningest active driver at Talladega, and Chris Buescher (+2200, 4.4%), and we’ve nearly equaled the manufacturer’s odds.

---

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for YellaWood 500: Zane Smith top 10 (+275) ⭐⭐⭐

We’re not getting quite enough value for me to really want to classify this as a long-shot bet, but there aren’t a ton of good long-shot markets for a race like Talladega. Several books have the longest-shot option on the top 10 markets at +500 (16.7%) or so. As a result, I’m settling on Smith to score a top 10 at +275 (26.7%), enough to turn a $27.50 profit on a $10 bet, for our long-shot prop.

Aside from his impressive run at Atlanta over the summer and his two Truck Series wins on superspeedways, Smith has routinely kept his equipment out of trouble at these venues. He finished exactly 13th in his first three Cup Series starts at Daytona. He also finished 11th at Atlanta in the spring in this No. 38 Ford. 

With Ford likely looking to keep its championship hopes alive with team orders on Sunday, don’t be surprised to see Smith doing his best to assist.

---

🏆 Past Talladega Superspeedway winners

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Talladega

• Expect the unexpected! While some drivers like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have a knack for finding Victory Lane at superspeedways, they can also produce some seriously surprising results, including wins for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Harrison Burton last year that few saw coming. Make sure to mix in some long shots.
• Trust the Blue Ovals. While Fords don’t always win at superspeedways, the manufacturer has excelled at them, largely due to a nose design that is favorable for the draft. Leading the majority of the laps on these tracks despite making up a minority of the field is seriously impressive.

---

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Talladega: 2025 YellaWood 500

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 19
• Start time: 2 p.m. ET
• Track: Talladega Superspeedway (Lincoln, Ala.)
• TV: NBC

---

📃 Affiliate disclosure

Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)