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Chase Elliott, driver of the NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, speaks to the media during the NASCAR Championship 4 Media Day at Phoenix Raceway on November 03, 2022 in Avondale, Arizona.
Chase Elliott, driver of the NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, speaks to the media during the NASCAR Championship 4 Media Day at Phoenix Raceway on November 03, 2022 in Avondale, Arizona. Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images via AFP.

A final race in the desert ends the 2022 NASCAR season. Find out who we think will win with our NASCAR Cup Series Championship picks and preview.

For the final time this year, drivers will take to the track. At the end of this race, NASCAR will crown a champion. Four drivers remain in the running for the title with Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Chase Ellioott racing for the trophy. As such, their odds are shorter than the field as almost every winner of the season finale has come from the championship four in recent history.

Keep an eye on Kyle Larson though. At +1500, he is still in play to win the owner’s championship for Hendrick Motorsports. He won here last year to win his own title, and I expect him to try to do it again for his boss. 

Here are our picks for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Info

Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, AZ
When: Sunday, Nov. 6, 3 p.m. ET
How to watch: NBC
Defending champion: Kyle Larson

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

Chase Elliott+250+230+260
Christopher Bell+325+300+360
Joey Logano+400+400+400
Ross Chastain+400+400+400
Kyle Larson+1200+1000+1400
Denny Hamlin+1600+1800+1800
Kevin Harvick+1800+2500+1800
Ryan Blaney+1800+2000+2000
William Byron+2500+3000+3300
Chase Briscoe+3300+3000+4000

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Picks

Who Will Win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship?

Chase Elliott (+260)

It’s no surprise to see the regular season champion listed as the favorite to win this race across the board. Elliott’s five wins in his 2022 campaign were the most by any driver this season. His 20 top-10 finishes tied with Ross Chastain for the most on the Cup Series.

The playoffs have not been easy for the No. 9 car, though. Elliott logged back-to-back finishes outside of the top 20 at the Charlotte Roval and Las Vegas. Last week, he finished 10th at Martinsville after finishing 14th at Homestead. 

Elliott has made 13 career starts on this track in his Cup Series career. He 10th or better eight times. Five times he has piloted his way inside the top 5. In 2020, he brought his Napa Chevrolet home for the win to secure his first NASCAR Cup Series title. 

There is very little deviation in his listing as well with a 20-point dip to +230 on some books. Barstool offers better value here at +260.

Christopher Bell (+360)

No driver has been better in the playoffs when his back is to the wall than Bell. The No. 20 car has been in must-win situations in each round of the postseason. At the Charlotte Roval, Bell found himself at the bottom of the playoff drivers facing elimination. He won that race. Last week at Martinsville he was far below the cut line and needed a win to advance. He won that race too.

Bell’s track history at Phoenix consists of five career races. His two ninth-place finishes in 2021 represent his best outings here. In the spring race this season, he started in fourth place only to cross the finish line in the 26th position. He is in the championship four for the first time in his career and is in another must-win situation.

Ross Chastain (+400)

Bell may have won last week at Martinsville, but everyone is still talking about the move by Chastain to propel him into his chance to win a Cup Series title. The No. 1 car needed to beat Denny Hamlin to advance and found itself down several spots heading into the final corners of the race. 

Chastain made the split decision to drive headlong into the wall, mash the throttle and ride the rim. In doing so, he passed six cars down the backstretch. The last of which was Hamlin whom he nosed out for the position and his spot in the final four.

Chastain's Trackhouse Chevy has two wins this season and his 14 top-5 finishes are the most by any driver. In the spring race on this track, he finished in second place.   

Where to bet on the NASCAR Cup Series Championship

NASCAR Cup Series Championship picks made 11/3/2022 at 11:08 a.m. ET.