2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions at Darlington: Best NASCAR Odds, Prop Bets & Expert Picks

The Cook Out Southern 500 gets underway Sunday at 7 p.m. ET (USA) at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, S.C., as we offer our Cook Out Southern 500 predictions and expert picks for this weekend's race.

NASCAR Cup Series favorite Kyle Larson is also favored to take the checkered flag for this race, which he previously won two years ago. Still, long shots are no strangers to Victory Lane in this race: just look at Chase Briscoe last year (+6500) and Erik Jones three years ago (+4000).

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📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Darlington

Here are the latest Cook Out Southern 500 odds and favorites at Darlington via BetMGM as of Friday.

🥇 Southern 500 betting favorites 🥇

• Kyle Larson, +500 ($10 to win $50)
• Tyler Reddick, +550 ($10 to win $55)
• Denny Hamlin, +600 ($10 to win $60)
• Ryan Blaney, +600 ($10 to win $60)
• William Byron, +600 ($10 to win $60)
• Christopher Bell, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Chase Briscoe, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Kyle Busch, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Joey Logano, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Chase Elliott, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Bubba Wallace, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Brad Keselowski, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Ross Chastain, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Chris Buescher, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Josh Berry, +2500 ($10 to win $250)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Cook Out Southern 500 or any other market!

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🏁 NASCAR predictions, expert picks & best bets at Darlington

Darlington is a low-speed intermediate thanks to its rough surface and oblong shape. The drivers who perform best here are generally those who can run the racing line closest to the wall without making significant contact - a skill disproportionately wielded by those with backgrounds on dirt tracks.

This spring’s race at Darlington saw a fierce battle for the win between several of the sport’s best drivers, including Denny Hamlin, who took the lead late to win. William Byron led 81.2% of the race, while Ryan Blaney - last week's winner at Daytona - posted the best average green-flag speed.

Those three drivers join Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick atop the oddsboard across all of the best sports betting sites. With his field-best speed in the spring plus Team Penske’s tendency to sandbag for the postseason, I predict Blaney will win the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington on Sunday - but it’ll be close.

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🏆 Pick to win Southern 500: Ryan Blaney (+650) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Blaney may have only finished fifth here earlier in the season, but he clearly had the best car. His average green-flag speed (156.92 mph) cleared race winner Hamlin (156.66) and the rest of the field.

He then went on to win the next low-speed intermediate race, which came at Nashville. Blaney again posted the best average green-flag speed (158.11 mph) in that race, clearing next-best Hamlin (157.97) by an admittedly slimmer margin. He also cashed my five-star ticket for him to do so at +1000.

I have Blaney as a four-star pick to win this race because his best odds of +650 at ESPN BET just aren’t as friendly. Instead of securing a $100 profit on $10, we’ll only get a $65 profit. His implied odds to win have jumped from 9.1% for Nashville to 13.3% for this race. I’m willing to stomach that risk due to the No. 12 team’s dominant speed at the low-speed intermediates this season, especially with the playoff win-and-advance format, but he is by no means a lock.

This year’s Homestead race is a great reminder of what can go wrong on low-speed intermediates - and in NASCAR more generally. Blaney also paced the field in average green-flag speed for that event (157.63), but that number likely skews high because he failed to complete the race due to an engine failure.

The best car doesn’t always win the race, but Blaney is the best bet to have the fastest car on Sunday night.

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💎 Best value bet to win Southern 500: Joey Logano (+1800) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Blaney’s teammate, Joey Logano, may be the better bet to win Sunday’s race - at least when we consider the price. He clocks in at +1800 at BetMGM, far longer than his teammate, but we’ve seen similar speed from the No. 22 Ford at low-speed intermediates for most of the season.

After an underwhelming Homestead in which he ranked 16th (155.94 mph), he improved to fifth at Darlington (155.74) and fourth at Nashville (157.72). As Blaney’s teammate, his team has access to some of Blaney’s data. Unlike Blaney, Logano has actually won here before, edging out Byron to win the spring 2022 event from the pole.

He went on to lead 25.9% of the total laps at Darlington that year but has yet to lead another since. Still, with Team Penske’s noted playoff history - along with Logano’s - one wonders if the No. 22 team has another gear somewhere behind the scenes for this campaign, especially with the championship race shifting to a low-speed intermediate track next year.

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🎯 Best long shot to win Southern 500: Erik Jones (+8000) ⭐⭐⭐

How often can you get a two-time Southern 500 winner at 80/1 odds - especially one who won the event with his current team just three seasons ago?

That’s exactly the situation that Erik Jones finds himself in ahead of Sunday’s race. While Jones’ No. 43 Toyota isn’t in the playoffs and hasn’t been all that fast this season, I saw an encouraging performance at Nashville a few months ago that I can’t ignore, as he ranked fifth by average green-flag speed (157.63).

That Jones Boy hasn’t led a lap here since leading the final one in September 2022, but his Legacy Motor Club team has been steadily improving since its switch to Toyota two years ago. Jones has already improved last year’s mark in top fives (3 from 1), top 10s (4 from 2), and average finish (19.5 from 22.9).

With a $10 bet offering a wild $800 profit at BetMGM, Jones firmly belongs on your card, especially with his odds as low as +5000 across the other best sports betting apps.

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💰 Best Southern 500 prop bets

We’ll be focusing on another Team Penske driver for our best NASCAR prop bet for Darlington - along with the aforementioned long-shot driver’s teammate. Let’s dive into why I like Josh Berry to score a top 10.

🔥 Best prop bet for Southern 500: Josh Berry top-10 finish (+150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m not quite sure why the No. 21 Ford fell off so much during the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it has something to do with the Wood Brothers and Team Penske attempting to experiment with Josh Berry locked into the postseason. Berry ended the regular season with five top-10 results, three of which came before June, but two of them came over the last two weeks.

At first blush, Berry’s performance at low-speed intermediates this year isn’t impressive. He finished 17th at Homestead, 36th at Darlington, and 30th at Nashville. However, when we look at average green-flag speed, he ranked 14th, ninth, and 22nd, suggesting he underperformed relative to his equipment. Berry also ranked top 10 by average green flag speed in both races here last year.

Add in the fact that Berry will have access to at least some of Blaney and Logano’s data, and we’ve got ourselves a solid wager. A $10 bet will return a $15 profit at DraftKings, which is just enough to make this a four-star NASCAR prop bet for the weekend. If Berry qualifies poorly, consider adding to your exposure should this line reopen at a better price.

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🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Southern 500: John Hunter Nemechek (+900) ⭐⭐⭐

John Hunter Nemechek pilots the No. 42 Toyota for Legacy Motor Club, so he’ll have some access to the information from the No. 43 team of Jones - our best long shot to win. That could prove helpful for the young driver, who has yet to finish inside the top 20 here since his ninth-place in May 2020.

That said, focusing on just Nemechek’s poor Cup Series results doesn’t tell the full story, as he's looked impressive here in the lower series.

In Trucks, he recorded one win, two top threes, three top 10s, and two poles in three starts. He also led at least the second-most laps in each appearance. In Xfinity, he nearly won in May 2023 before getting moved by Kyle Larson. He now has one top three, three top fives, and four top 10s over six starts - four of which came for underfunded teams.

The No. 42 team will probably need considerable attrition to score a top-10 result, but with help from Jones’ notebook, Nemechek’s odds should probably be shorter than +900. There are 38 cars on the entry list for Sunday, so any driver’s raw odds of scoring such a result are 26.3%, giving us an edge of 16.3% versus the number posted at ESPN BET.

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📈 NASCAR trends & Darlington Raceway history

Here are a few Darlington Raceway and low-speed intermediate trends to consider before betting on Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500.

🏎️ Ryan Blaney is running the show. In all three events on low-speed intermediate tracks this season, Blaney and the No. 12 team have recorded the best average green-flag speed, with one win and two top fives to show for it. Don’t be surprised to see another strong performance from this group.

🏎️ Starting position matters. Five of the last seven winners at Darlington, which constitutes the entire sample in the NextGen car, started in the first five spots. The two exceptions to the rule were Kyle Larson (2023 Southern 500) and Erik Jones (2022 Southern 500), who benefited from attrition affecting dominant cars that started inside the top five.  

🏎️ Consistency, thy name is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has scored three straight top 10s at Darlington, including a win this spring. More impressively, he has led at least one lap here in all seven Darlington races held in the NextGen car and has the third-best average finish (10.3) over that sample.

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💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Darlington

The NASCAR betting strategy tips to know for Darlington are the same as those you’ll need to handicap any low-speed intermediate event: 

• These tracks have rough surfaces that generate tons of tire wear, so you need patient drivers who can manage their equipment. Multi-lap averages in practice can be a good way to identify drivers who will succeed over the long run as opposed to those who are only quick on new tires.
• You’ll generally also want a history of success on these tracks or on dirt. Low-speed intermediate results are quite predictive for future races, so look for drivers who ran well or brought tons of speed to prior low-speed intermediate events, either this season or last season.

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🏆 Past Cook Out Southern 500 winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Cook Out Southern 500 winners entering Sunday's race.

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📺 How to watch 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 31, 2025
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Track: Darlington Raceway (Darlington, S.C.)
• TV: USA | Streaming: Peacock

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❓ Cook Out Southern 500 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Cook Out Southern 500?

Kyle Larson is favored to win the 2025 Cook Out Southern 500, per BetMGM, where his +500 odds would turn a $10 bet into a $50 profit.

What are the odds for the Cook Out Southern 500?

Kyle Larson (+500), Tyler Reddick (+550), Denny Hamlin (+600), Ryan Blaney (+600), and William Byron (+600) are among the favorites for the Cook Out Southern 500.

What time is the 2025 Cook Out Southern 500?

The 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 starts at 7 p.m. ET (USA) on Sunday, Aug. 31, in Darlington, S.C.

How to watch the 2025 Cook Out Southern 500

You can watch the Cook Out Southern 500 on USA or stream it via Peacock.

Who won the Cook Out Southern 500 last year?

Chase Briscoe won last year’s Cook Out Southern 500 with opening odds of +6500 and raceday odds of +4000.

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