2025 Cook Out 400 Predictions at Richmond Tonight: NASCAR Odds, Best Prop Bets & Expert Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series speeds into Richmond this weekend as the playoff race heats up. We’re breaking down the latest Cook Out 400 odds and sharing our Cook Out 400 predictions for Saturday night’s race.

Tune in to the action from Richmond Raceway on Saturday, Aug. 16 at 7:30 p.m. ET (USA Network) as drivers jostle for postseason position and a shot at victory lane.

📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Richmond

Here are the latest Cook Out 400 odds and favorites at Richmond via BetMGM as of Friday evening.

🥇 Cook Out 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Denny Hamlin, +400 ($10 to win $40)
• Christopher Bell, +425 ($10 to win $42.50)
• Kyle Larson, +650 ($10 to win $65)
• William Byron, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Joey Logano, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Ryan Blaney, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• Chase Briscoe, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Chase Elliott, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Brad Keselowski, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Tyler Reddick, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Chris Buescher, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Bubba Wallace, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Ross Chastain, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Josh Berry, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Kyle Busch, +3000 ($10 to win $300)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Cook Out 400 or any other market!

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🏁 NASCAR predictions, expert picks & best bets at Richmond

The Cup Series heads to a short, flat oval for the second time in three weeks. William Byron stole the show at Iowa earlier this month, but it was fuel mileage, not pace, that secured him the win over Chase Briscoe and Brad Keselowski.

The average green-flag speed stats from Iowa will prove crucial to handicapping the Richmond race. It’s not the same tire that was used at that track, but both venues are marginally less than a mile long with 14 degrees of banking in the corners.

Richmond’s surface induces a healthy amount of tire wear, so with the same tire that we saw at Martinsville and North Wilkesboro, track position and restart execution will be key. And with the playoffs right around the corner, desperate drivers will take desperate measures.

 Ultimately, I predict Brad Keselowski will win the Cook Out 400 at Richmond.

🏆 Pick to win Cook Out 400: Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +1600 via FanDuel ($10 to win $160)🔢 Implied probability: 5.88%

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Paying for guys down the outright board didn’t work at road courses this year, but I think it could be a successful strategy this weekend. Keselowski is in a win-or-go-home situation with the playoffs looming, and he's almost won several times in recent weeks, including at Iowa.

The No. 6 Ford that Keselowski brought to Iowa was bad fast. He ranked second in average green-flag speed behind only the race-winner Byron by 0.04 miles per hour. He also sat fifth in the metric at North Wilkesboro, which marked the most recent time we saw this tire.

The best sports betting sites are finally charging a more expected number for Keselowski, but the +1600 at FanDuel doesn't deter me. He's produced an elite average finish here in the NextGen Era (11.3) to go with a pair of wins and the third-most laps led of all active drivers (1,280).

💎 Best value bet to win Cook Out 400: Ryan Preece ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +4000 via BetMGM ($10 to win $400)🔢 Implied probability: 2.44%

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Like Keselowski, Preece is on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Unlike Keselowski, Preece could still get in on points – but he’d need a collapse from either Alex Bowman or teammate Chris Buescher, two of the most consistent drivers in the field. 

Preece’s background in the Whelen Modified Tour and SK Modifieds, which primarily run in the northeast (but Richmond often appears on the former’s schedule) is good experience for tracks like Richmond. He was in the field for Thursday’s Modified event at Richmond, too. 

Flat short tracks are Preece’s bread and butter. He broke through for his first Xfinity Series win at Iowa, a comparable venue, and finished fifth there two weeks ago. He holds a better than 2.4% chance of winning this race. 

🎯 Best long shot to win Cook Out 400: Austin Cindric ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +10000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $1,000)🔢 Implied probability: 0.99%

I’m sorry, what? I wrote about Austin Cindric before Iowa because I thought his quadruple-digit odds were too long, and he vindicated me while scoring top-three finishes in both stages, leading 20 laps, and ranking fifth in average green-flag speed. He’s now a quintuple-digit long shot for this race? Give me a break.

Cindric may not boast the most impressive Cup Series resume, but Team Penske has been running the show at flat short tracks in recent years – especially late in the season. And Cindric's run at Iowa suggests he may have turned a corner at these venues in the NextGen car.

Let’s not forget Cindric’s Xfinity Series resume, either. Although he never won here or at Martinsville, Cindric scored three runner-up finishes at these two tracks. He also won twice at Phoenix while adding another runner-up result. Giving him odds below 1% is foolish.

💰 Best NASCAR prop bets & picks at Richmond

We returned to our winning ways with five-star NASCAR prop bets last weekend with Buescher scoring a top-10 result at Watkins Glen to cash our +105 ticket. We’ll be targeting one of the above drivers in the top-10 markets this weekend, as Preece to get a top 10 at +200 is just too spicy to turn down.

🔥 Best prop bet for Cook Out 400: Ryan Preece top 10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +200 via ESPN BET ($10 to win $20)🔢 Implied probability: 33.3%

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After years in back-marker or below-average equipment, Preece finally finds himself on an average-to-above-average team. He's turned the opportunity into a very solid season, scoring three of his seven career top-five finishes and 10 of his 26 career top 10s. Two of those came at flat short tracks: Martinsville and Iowa.

Preece managed to climb from a 33rd-place starting position to scoring a fifth-place finish at Iowa. That kind of drive deserves a hat tip. While he didn’t generate as much green-flag speed as Keselowski, his experience on tracks like this one in modifieds – and Preece's start in Thursday’s modified event here – are reasons for optimism.

It helps that he can still point his way into the postseason, so Preece is less likely to lose track position late in the race due to a last-ditch effort to win.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Cook Out 400: Austin Cindric top 10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +410 via FanDuel ($10 to win $41)🔢 Implied probability: 19.6%

This may not feel like a true long-shot prop bet, but it needs to be in this column due to the massive price disparity between our best sports betting apps right now. Cindric may be +410 for a top 10 at FanDuel, but he's just +150 at BetMGM and Caesars. The next-longest price is the +350 at ESPN BET.

Many of the same arguments for backing Cindric to win this race outright apply here. The Team Penske Fords are fast on flat short tracks, and Cindric just flashed race-winning – or at least top 10 – speed at Iowa two weeks ago. 

While Cindric has already clinched a playoff spot, the No. 2 team could be looking to string some momentum together with consistent results before the postseason starts.

📈 NASCAR trends & Richmond Raceway history

Here are a few Cook Out 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Richmond Raceway.

🏎️ The dominant car hasn’t won here in the NextGen Era. Over a six-race sample since 2022, no driver has led the most laps before taking the checkered flag at Richmond, with two winners – both Denny Hamlin – leading less than 20.

🏎️ Toyota boasts a ton of speed. The Toyota camp produced one of the two Richmond winners last year, but it also came away with the drivers who led the most laps, with Hamlin, Bell, and Martin Truex Jr. leading 500 of 807 laps here.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Richmond

Flat short tracks can get interesting due to late-race cautions, tire wear, and close racing. Drivers can move on each other in the corners and make some serious ground on restarts. As a result, here are two NASCAR betting strategy tips to consider this weekend with the playoffs nearing.

• Know your driver’s situation. Is the driver you want to bet on locked into the playoffs? If so, are they competing for positioning in the regular-season standings (which can pay out playoff points), or do they need to win to score playoff points? Those factors can affect how a driver plays the strategy game, impacting their odds of winning or settling for a top-10 result.
• Look for long-run speed. Richmond is known for tire wear, and the new short-track tire has produced slightly more passing. Study the practice results to see which drivers run the best 10- and 20-lap averages. Trust them more than guys who only feature short-run speed.

🏆 Past Cook Out 400 winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Richmond Raceway winners entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Cook Out 400 at Richmond

📅 Race date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
🕒 Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Richmond Raceway (Richmond, Va.)
📺 TV: USA | Streaming: Peacock

❓ Cook Out 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Cook Out 400?

Denny Hamlin (+400) is the favorite to win at one of his home tracks, Richmond Raceway, with his 20% implied odds yielding a $40 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the Cook Out 400?

Hamlin (+400) and Christopher Bell (+425) are the clear-cut favorites, and behind them, the Hendrick Motorsports teammates of Kyle Larson (+650) and William Byron (+800) make up the next tier.

What time is the 2025 Cook Out 400?

The 2025 Cook Out 400 starts at 7:30 p.m. ET (USA) on Saturday, August 16 in Richmond.

How to watch the 2025 Cook Out 400

You can watch the Cook Out 400 on USA or stream it via Peacock.

Who won the Cook Out 400 last year?

Austin Dillon won at Richmond last year after opening at +10000 and closing at +4000 – although his aggressive driving cost him his automatic playoff bid.

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