NASCAR Predictions at Bristol: Odds & Picks for 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race

The Round of 16 comes to a close with Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Our NASCAR predictions for the Bristol Night Race, which begins at 7:30 p.m. ET (USA), expects Denny Hamlin to make noise at a track he knows well with a plus-money prop bet on Joey Logano, too.

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📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites: Bristol Night Race

Here are the latest NASCAR odds and favorites for the Bristol Night Race courtesy of BetMGM.

🥇 Bristol Night Race betting favorites 🥇

• Kyle Larson, +240 ($10 to win $24)
• Denny Hamlin, +425 ($10 to win $42.50)
• Christopher Bell, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Ryan Blaney, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Chase Briscoe, +900 ($10 to win $90)
• William Byron, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Chase Elliott, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Ty Gibbs, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Joey Logano, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Alex Bowman, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Tyler Reddick, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Bubba Wallace, +2500 ($10 to win $250)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Bass Pro Shops Night Race or any other market!

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🏁 NASCAR predictions: Bristol Night Race 2025

While not a true Crown Jewel of the sport, the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol is one of the higher-profile events of the season. Bristol is a 0.533-mile highly banked concrete oval with no true comparator venue, although the one-mile Dover Motor Speedway mirrors it in surface composition and banking.

While raw speed is important here, Bristol’s short length makes it easy to catch the rear of the field – and incredibly important to pass lapped cars effectively. The outcomes at Bristol are often decided when leaders catch up to traffic. A car’s handling, a driver’s risk tolerance and decision-making, and a spotter’s vision all matter a ton at Bristol.

Recently, Bristol has been a playground for two drivers: Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Larson has won the last two races here; Hamlin won the two races beforehand. But those two trail the winningest active driver here, Kyle Busch, who has eight victories here but hasn’t managed to find Victory Lane since the spring of 2019.

The only thing different between this spring’s Bristol race and this one is the right-side tire. Goodyear has brought a soften compound to the track that could increase tire wear.

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🏆 Pick to win Bristol Night Race: Denny Hamlin (+500) ⭐⭐⭐

It’s impossible to rule out the Virginia native whenever we come to a banked short track. Hamlin’s three wins at Bristol since 2019 are the most over that sample; so are his three wins at Dover in that span. While Larson has been the driver to beat at Bristol lately, his odds (+250) should be about the same as Hamlin’s (+500) – not 11.9% shorter.

Hamlin doesn’t have to do anything to advance to the Round of 12, but he can pad his playoff point total with a win, which will increase his championship odds by a healthy margin. The 44-year-old veteran is the winningest all-time driver without a championship, and he is just one spot behind Kevin Harvick for the 10th-most wins in Cup Series history.

While Larson was fast at Bristol in the spring, Hamlin was the only driver to rank inside the top five by average green-flag speed at both tracks. Although his odds to win this race are far shorter than I generally recommend playing, it’s stunning to see the gap between him and Larson at the moment. Lock Hamlin in for a $50 return on a $10 bet at BetMGM.

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💎 Best value bet to win Bristol Night Race: Alex Bowman (+2200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Unlike Hamlin, Bowman isn’t fighting to improve his positioning in the Round of 12 - he is fighting to qualify for it. With a 35-point gap between him and the cut line, Bowman is probably in a win-or-go-home spot without substantial assistance during Saturday’s race. That could push one of the sport’s more conservative drivers into a more aggressive mode.

Although Bowman rarely forces the issue on the track, he has been exceptional at banked short tracks, especially of late. He started on the pole and led 39 laps here in the spring before suffering an engine failure. He also finished third at Dover in July and owns the best average finish there of all active drivers in the NextGen Era (5.3).

Hendrick Motorsports has brought a ton of raw speed to Bristol lately, and while it’s been Larson getting the most out of it in the last two starts, it’s evidence that the No. 48 machine should be good enough for Bowman to pull off a win. Since a $10 bet will score a nice $220 payday at FanDuel, Bowman should absolutely be on your betting card for Saturday.

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🎯 Best long shot to win Bristol Night Race: Carson Hocevar (+5500) ⭐⭐⭐

It’s arguable whether Carson Hocevar counts as a true long shot to win this race, but with just a 1.8% implied probability for these +5500 odds at DraftKings, that’s long enough for me.

Hocevar has both the talent and the aggression necessary to succeed at Bristol – the question is whether he has the equipment. He certainly did in the spring. Hocevar piloted his No. 77 Chevrolet to the third-best average green flag speed in that event but only finished 11th in his fourth career attempt here.

In his debut, he piloted a bad No. 42 Chevrolet to an 11th-place result, as well. While it took him another two attempts to replicate that success, he managed to qualify seventh for the Fall 2024 event and ninth for the Spring 2025 event. If he can do that again, look for his odds to shorten substantially.

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💰 Best NASCAR prop bets & picks for Bristol Night Race

While I recommend betting on Hamlin, Bowman, and Hocevar to win this race, I can’t recommend betting on them in the other markets. Each driver has an incentive to win, but none has much incentive to settle for anything less.

As a result, we’re getting exposure to one long-shot driver to score a top 10 and a matchup with a surprising source for our edge.

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🔥 Best prop bet for Bristol Night Race: Joey Logano (+120) vs. Carson Hocevar ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

After I wrote up a bet on Hocevar to win this race outright, it may surprise you to see me recommend betting on another driver to finish ahead of him. That decision comes down to the simple fact that Hocevar’s greatest asset – his aggression – is also his greatest liability.

Hocevar has caused havoc all season long by racing other drivers too aggressively. Many drivers have a score to settle with him, and the slow speeds and tight-nit racing at Bristol present a great opportunity for payback - whether that takes the form of blocking, aggressive racing, or even intentional wrecking.

Logano has struggled at Bristol lately, but he is a two-time winner here, and he needs to bring his No. 22 Ford home in one piece to advance to the Round of 12. Meanwhile, Hocevar has no such championship consequences to face. Back Logano to finish ahead of the talented youngster at the friendly price of +120, which will score you a $12 profit on a $10 bet at ESPN BET.

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🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Bristol Night Race: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. top-10 finish (+1000) ⭐⭐⭐

I was stunned to see Ricky Stenhouse Jr. priced at +1000 (9.1%) just to score a top-10 at FanDuel. The same bet will cost you +400 (20%) at DraftKings.

While Stenhouse doesn’t pilot the best equipment, that hasn’t kept him from posting impressive stats at the World’s Fastest Half Mile. He has one top-10  finish here in five starts in the NextGen Era. More importantly, he has seven top-10s in 22 career starts.

Hyak Motorsports didn’t bring much speed to Bristol in the Spring, but they brought enough for Stenhouse to rank 20th by average green-flag speed and finish 22nd. With a little help from other drivers getting too aggressive in a playoff cut race, Stenhouse could benefit from attrition, and that’s enough for me to bet $10 to profit $100.

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📈 NASCAR trends & Bristol Motor Speedway history

Here are a few NASCAR trends to consider before betting on Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

🏎️ Kyle Larson is inevitable. The pilot of the No. 5 Chevrolet has scored at least a top-five result in the last six Bristol races. He missed the top five in the two races before that because he didn’t start them, and he finished sixth in the Bristol race immediately before those.

🏎️ Start up front, stay up front. The last four Bristol winners started within the first two rows. Eight of the last nine Bristol winners started within the first three rows, too.

🏎️ Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing run the show. The two teams have combined to win the last four races. They have also combined to control all but one of the top two spots in the last five races.

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💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Bristol

When betting on banked short tracks, there are two key NASCAR betting strategy tips to keep in the front of your mind. Further, since this is a playoff elimination race, knowing the consequences of that is also crucial:

• Banked short tracks aren’t flat short tracks. This sounds obvious in the abstract, but many NASCAR data aggregators will simply combine all short tracks into one category. That doesn’t reflect the style of driving required at all, and flat venues do not correlate much with short ones. Case in point: Team Penske has struggled at banked short tracks while winning three-straight championships largely due to dominance on flat short tracks.
• Don’t trust guys at the back of the field, especially at Bristol. Since this track is just over a half-mile in length, the cars at the rear of the field will get put a lap down early – sometimes even two laps down. It’s almost impossible to dig out of a hole like that one. Don’t bet heavily on guys who qualify outside the top half of the field.
• Understand the playoff standings. This is a playoff elimination race, which means different things for different drivers. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe are locked into the next round and can afford to go for the win. Most drivers are currently qualified for the next round but need to maintain their points position. Others are on the outside looking in, and they either need a strong points day or, in Josh Berry’s case, an outright win.

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🏆 Past Bristol Motor Speedway winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Bristol Motor Speedway winners entering Saturday’s race.

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📺 How to watch the 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 13
• Start time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Track: Bristol Motor Speedway (Bristol, Tenn.)
• TV: USA

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❓ Bristol Night Race FAQs

Who is favored to win the Bristol Night Race?

Kyle Larson is favored to win the 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at +250 (28.6%), which would yield a $25 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the Bristol Night Race?

Larson, Denny Hamlin (+500), Christopher Bell (+800), and Ryan Blaney (+800) are the favorites to win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

What time is the Bristol Night Race?

The 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race starts at 7:30 p.m. ET (USA) on Saturday, Sept. 13 in Bristol.

How to watch the Bristol Night Race

You can watch the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on USA.

Who won the Bristol Night Race last year?

Last year, Kyle Larson won the Bass Pro Shops Night Race with raceday odds of +300 after opening at odds of +500.

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