Women's French Open Final Prediction, Pick & Odds for Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek is a heavy favorite over unseeded Karolina Muchova in the 2023 Women's French Open Final. Check out below for our Women's French Open Final prediction between Swiatek and Muchova, based on the best betting odds.
Karolina Muchova became the fourth woman from the Czech Republic to reach the French Open final since 2015. To earn her spot in the final, she had to beat No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka, who had won 12 consecutive Grand Slam matches. Muchova has overcome a multitude of injuries to get to this point, including when she retired from her third-round match at Roland Garros last year due to a sprained ankle.
Iga Swiatek is looking to become the first woman to win consecutive French Open titles since Justine Henin three-peated from 2005 to 2007. Swiatek enters having won 13 straight matches at Roland Garros and has yet to lose a set in six matches this tournament. On Monday, Swiatek has assured the No. 1 spot in the WTA rankings, even if she loses this match.
Here is our best Women's French Open Final prediction for Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Women's French Open Final odds: Muchova vs. Swiatek
(odds via DraftKings, as of June 9 at 8:26 a.m. ET)
| Karolina Muchova | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +600 | -900 |
| Spread | +5.5 (+110) | -5.5 (-135) |
| Over/Under | Over 18.5 (-130) | Under 18.5 (+110) |
Women's French Open Final prediction: Muchova vs. Swiatek
Over 18.5 games (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Swiatek’s dominance has been on display throughout this French Open run, as she has won as many sets 6-0 (four) as she has had sets that have seen 10-plus games played. While the world No. 1 has made quick work of her opponents thus far and is a heavy favorite by the French Open odds, Muchova will not be a pushover.
Muchova has won two-thirds of her Grand Slam matches against top-10 opponents, which includes her pre-injury triumph over No. 4 seed Maria Sakkari last year. Per OptaAce, only three players with a minimum of nine such matches have had a higher win ratio since WTA rankings were first published. And while this is Swiatek’s ninth WTA clay-court final since her first at Lugano in 2019, each of her previous two exceeded this projected game total.
For as much of an advantage as Swiatek has in experience, Muchova proved she is not rattled in the biggest moments, rallying from match point down 2-5 in the third set of her win over Sabalenka. Muchova showed her dominance at the end of that match, winning 20 of the final 24 points and proving her low ranking compared to the world’s best (she was ranked 41 spots lower than Sabalenka before this finals run) may be more of a product of her time away due to injuries than her lack of ability.
Muchova spent a grueling three hours and 13 minutes on the court in her semifinal match. But this is a four-star play as history is on her side; she would be the third player ranked outside the WTA top 40 to reach the Roland Garros final, and the previous two (Jelena Ostapenko-2017, Swiatek-2020) won, per OptaAce. So while we are not bold enough to back Muchova’s moneyline odds, we expect her to compete enough to push this match over the projected total games spread.
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Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek best odds
(Odds last updated Saturday, June 10 at 7:40 a.m. ET)
DraftKings (-120)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| +105 | -132 | -145 | -125 | -135 |
With the Over on a line of 18.5 games becoming more heavily juiced into Saturday morning, DraftKings was the first of our best sportsbooks to flip its standard line to 19.5. Bettors can get plus money for the Over on that line. BetMGM has the most vig on the Over at 18.5 while Caesars is now the best place to back our original Women's French Open Final pick.
Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek match info
Date: Saturday, June 10, 9 a.m. ET
Location: Roland Garros Stadium, Paris, France
How to watch: NBC, Peacock
Muchova-Swiatek pick made 6/8/2023 at 8:07 p.m. ET
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