ATP and WTA US Open Day 5: Top Tennis Picks and Predictions
Nice profit from the last couple of previews with Griekspoor and Stephens providing wins at +280 (3.8) and +220 (3.2). I mentioned that all eyes would be on Djokovic’s opening match given his recent injury concerns and despite dropping a set to young talent Holger Rune he seemed in good health.
Barty too cruised through her opening round and it’s been a fairly routine tournament so far in terms of underdog wins with all the big names still intact. Nonetheless, I’ve found a couple of value plays, and once again we are siding with an outsider. Join me as I analyze day 5 in Flushing Meadows and offer my best value tennis picks and predictions for Sportsbook Review!
Diego Schwartzman vs. Alex Molcan
Friday, September 03, 2021 - 11:00 AM EDT in Flushing Meadows
I doubt this match will be nearly as one-sided as the ranks suggest with Schwartzman in a very average form this year and Molcan a rising talent who often does his best work as an underdog. I would expect a tight encounter and Molcan is too long for me at +371 (3.71) with .
Molcan is an all-court player with a lot of variety in his game and a high IQ. He tends to play mostly on the Challenger tour but he’s looked in excellent form and had a breakthrough year in 2021, making the final of the 250 in Belgrade where he lost out to Novak Djokovic.
Slovakia's tennis player Alex Molcan returns the ball. Photo by Andrej ISAKOVIC / AFP
He has won 29 of his last 50 matches as the underdog for a 51% ROI and 11 of 16 this year for an 89% ROI. Molcan plays mostly on clay but his game translates well to hard courts, as he showed last out when he defeated the in-form Brandon Nakashima priced +270 (3.7). He has a 10-14 record and 20% ROI as the underdog on indoor and outdoor hard courts including winning 3 of 5 this year.
Schwartzman by contrast is not having a great year with a 25-15 record and -20% ROI. He’s found some form in recent weeks but still hasn’t looked near his peak, and given his return-orientated game style, he is always vulnerable to an in-form opponent.
It would be fair to say that Schwartzman often plays his best tennis in the slams and this will be easily the toughest challenge so far this week for Molcan, but he will be brimming with confidence and certainly has the game to take it to Schwartzman.
Tennis Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
https://twitter.com/usopen/status/1432370876692017158?s=20
Garbine Muguruza vs. Victoria Azarenka
Friday, September 03, 2021 - 11:00 AM EDT in Flushing Meadows
Two tall players in a near evenly priced match and fairly quick conditions suggest this will be a long match and I like . Azarenka is 6’ 0” and Muguruza is 6’ 1” and they both have excellent serves and devastating power. So long as they both serve well it should be difficult to break each other and they have played long matches in the past.
They have only played 2 completed matches but both went over the total line with one ending 7-6 7-6 on the hard courts of Miami. More broadly, when priced up between -200 (1.5) and +100 (3) both Azarenka and Muguruza have only finished under the total line in 20 of their last 50.
Muguruza is the more serve-orientated player and is more predictable, while Azarenka is more variable but tends to have ups and downs throughout the match when playing elite level opposition. They have both looked in solid if not spectacular form of late so I don’t get a sense of either running away with the match barring injury.
https://twitter.com/GarbiMuguruza/status/1432608995781582861?s=20
Courts at the US Open tend to play on the quicker side of medium and it’s been a similar story in 2021 with 67.2% holds compared to the 65.3% tour hard court average. I can’t put anyone off backing the tiebreak if you can get over +550 (6.5).
The main concern for me is that Azarenka can have matches where she is unplayable, as well as matches where she looks like she can’t play at all – as mentioned she is the more variable player. I doubt that this is a match-up which will bring that out of her though and all in all I’m more than happy with the line so it’s an easy bet for me to make the over my tennis pick.
Tennis Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
