Yankees vs. Twins Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 17
I’m not shying away from New York in my Yankees vs. Twins prediction today, even though the visitors almost blew a 10-1 lead yesterday before eking out a one-run win, 10-9. First pitch from Target Field in Minneapolis set for 7:40 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
My MLB picks expect Yankees right-handed pitcher Luis Gil to have success against a Twins lineup lacking in star power, and I’m taking one of his player props to reflect that.
⚾ Yankees vs. Twins prediction
MLB expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Yankees (-169 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Yankees -1.5 (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 9 (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐
📝 Yankees vs. Twins preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🗽 Yankees -1.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I’m going right back to this line, even though the Yankees found a way to only win by one run after taking a 10-1 lead yesterday.
The big motivator for me is another struggling pitcher on the mound for the Twins. Right-hander Taj Bradley has a 6.33 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and a .272 opponents’ batting average in four starts since he was acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay.
Opposing hitters have teed off on Bradley’s fastball in 2025, putting up a .295 average and .500 slugging percentage, while his cutter has been a bit fortunate with a .262 xBA and. .469 xSLG. The Yankees are fourth in MLB in slugging percentage and third in Baseball Savant’s Batter Run Value metric against fastballs this season. Meanwhile, they are first in the league in slugging percentage and home runs against cutters this season.
After scoring 10 runs in Tuesday’s win, the Yankees could be poised once again to do major damage at the plate.
One of the best sports betting sites, Caesars, offered -105 odds on the Yankees -1.5, which nets out a profit of $9.52 on a $10 bet. The -105 odds have an implied probability of 51.22%
💰 Best Yankees vs. Twins player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🔥 Luis Gil to record a win (+161) ⭐⭐
Yankees starter Luis Gil has earned a win in three of his last four starts. His walk rate has been a bit high, but he's 4-0 with a 1.65 ERA across his last six outings.
The Twins are 18th in MLB in walk rate, which should be helpful for Gil considering his spotty command of late. Gil’s pitch arsenal is still grading out as slightly above average, according to FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric. I think he can have some success against the Twins if he’s able to command his pitches effectively.
A $10 wager on Gil to earn a win pays out a profit of $16.10 at DraftKings. The +161 odds have an implied probability of 38.31%.
📊 Yankees vs. Twins odds: Sept. 17
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Yankees vs. Twins betting odds analysis
New York opened as high as -190 favorites, with some of the best sports betting apps offering them as low as -169.
🔢 Yankees vs. Twins stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Yankees (84-67) | Statistic (per game) | Twins (66-85) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.19 | Runs | 4.29 |
| 8.44 | Hits | 8.06 |
| .250 | AVG | .240 |
| .453 | SLG | .401 |
| .782 | OPS | .714 |
| 4.05 | ERA | 4.62 |
| 8.96 | K/9 | 8.60 |
| 3.53 | BB/9 | 2.94 |
| 1.11 | HR/9 | 1.23 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Twins injuries
📺 Yankees vs. Twins game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 17
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Field (Minneapolis)
- How to watch: Prime Video
❓ Yankees vs. Twins FAQs
Who is favored to win Yankees vs. Twins?
The Yankees are the -169 betting favorite to defeat the Twins on the road on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Yankees vs. Twins?
New York is a -1.5 run line favorite against Minnesota in Wednesday’s matchup.
What is the Over/Under for Yankees vs. Twins?
The total for Wednesday’s game between the Yankees and Twins is 9.
What are the best bets for Yankees vs. Twins?
My best bets for Wednesday’s Yankees vs. Twins game are New York -1.5 (-105) and Luis Gil to record a win (+161)
When is the Yankees vs. Twins game?
First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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