Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 18
The New York Yankees’ bats are on fire entering a series opener against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:15 p.m. ET on Thursday from Oriole Park at Camden Yards (FOX). That’s why my Yankees vs. Orioles prediction suggests taking the Over on 8.5 runs (-122).
New York, which has scored 10 runs in back-to-back games, is a -200 favorite against Baltimore. My MLB picks believe Aaron Judge will go deep too (+240).
⚾ Yankees vs. Orioles prediction
MLB expert picks for Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Yankees ML (-200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Yankees -1.5 (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Yankees vs. Orioles preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 8.5 (-122) ⭐⭐⭐
This game should feature plenty of scoring. Ballpark Pal’s model projects the Yankees to win 6.21-5.06, which suggests a -218 price tag on Over of 8.5 runs.
I don’t know if I expect Baltimore to score that much, but FanDuel is the lone shop offering this line at 8.5. The rest of the market is at nine, which is why I'll take the -122 value to cash $8.20 on a $10 bet.
The Yankees are 6-3 to the Over across their past nine games. This is a good opportunity to maintain that form against Baltimore left-hander Cade Povich, who has put up a woeful 5.05 ERA this season. Povich has posted a career xwOBA of 0.510 against the Yankees, according to Baseball Savant.
This is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair. I’d take the Over on the Yankees’ team total (5.5) if this game total climbs up before first pitch.
💰 Best Yankees vs. Orioles player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs (+240) ⭐⭐⭐
Aaron Judge’s home run price tag doesn’t often carry value, but Thursday’s opener could be a chance to pounce on quality odds. A $10 bet at BetMGM’s +240 offering earns $24.
You might not need math to back Judge hitting a homer, but The BAT X’s model projects 0.4 home runs for the talented slugger. That means a fair price could be closer to +150.
Judge has logged two homers in as many career at-bats against Povich. Our Mike Spector is also backing this play as part of his best home run predictions today.
📊 Yankees vs. Orioles odds: Sept. 18
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Yankees vs. Orioles betting odds analysis
The Yankees started as -185 favorites overnight at the best sports betting sites, but the line has moved in their favor given the team's recent form. The total has remained at nine, though the Under has been generating some attention that's moved the odds from -110 to -120.
🔢 Yankees vs. Orioles stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Yankees | Statistic (per game) | Orioles |
| 5.22 | Runs | 4.28 |
| 8.5 | Hits | 8 |
| .250 | AVG | .239 |
| .455 | SLG | .400 |
| .785 | OPS | .707 |
| 4.05 | ERA | 4.59 |
| 9.0 | K/9 | 8.4 |
| 3.5 | BB/9 | 3.3 |
| 1.1 | HR/9 | 1.4 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Orioles injury report
📺 Yankees vs. Orioles game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 18
- Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, MD)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ Yankees vs. Orioles FAQs
Who is favored to win Yankees vs. Orioles?
The Yankees are -200 favorites to defeat the Orioles on Thursday through the best sports betting apps.
What is the run line for Yankees vs. Orioles?
The Yankees are -1.5 run line favorites against the Orioles.
What is the Over/Under for Yankees vs. Orioles?
The total for Yankees vs. Orioles is nine.
What are the best bets for Yankees vs. Orioles?
My best bets for Yankees vs. Orioles are the Over on 8.5 (-122), and Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+240).
When is the Yankees vs. Orioles game?
First pitch for Yankees vs. Orioles is 7:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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